S12 Final

[sportznut]

Early odds:

TAB Sportsbet
BRUMBIES $1.42
CRUSADERS $2.65

Sportodds
BRUMBIES $1.48 (-6.5)
CRUSADERS $2.65 (+6.5)

NZ Tab
BRUMBIES $1.50 (-5.5)
CRUSADERS $2.50 (+5.5)

NSW Tab
BRUMBIES $1.45
CRUSADERS $2.60





<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-05-18 17:51 ]</font>

[Mr J]

My system says brumbies -7.5.

On 2004-05-18 21:36, Mr J wrote:
My system says brumbies -7.5.


Whats your predicted half time margin Mr J? if you don't mind me asking.

[Mr J]

The computer model doesn't predict half times. You could expect that half the points of the game are scored each half, so it'd be half the spread.

It wouldn't be worth doing for for super 12s (due to lack of halves betting options) but it'd be interesting to record all 1st half and 2nd half scores to see if more points are scored in a certain half.

I might look at brumbies/brumbies, and brumbies 1st half -3, brumbies to score first etc, as long as they're at good odds. If you think a team will win, then you expect them to score more points, to have a better chance of scoring first, to have a better chance of winning both the first and second halves.

Might check these props out.

[Squirter]

Some stats Mr.J.

Brumbies. Crusaders. Venue.
1996 29 7 NZ.
1997 49 29 AUS.
1998 26 38 NZ.
1999 21 28 AUS.
2000 17 12 NZ.
2000 19 FINAL 20 AUS.
2001 51 16 AUS.
2002 32 33 NZ.
2002 13 FINAL 31 NZ.
2003 21 28 AUS.
2004 28 47 NZ.
2004 FINAL AUS.

Is it your turn ? Christ knows, I think I'll leave me money in my wallet, anyway Watson is the Ref so she'll be a well Refed game.

[Squirter]

That didn't turn out very bloody good did it.

[Mr J]

Looking at those stats I think the brumbies are due for a finals win :wink:

Brumbies will be hard to beat at home. I think the brumbies are a stronger team than in previous years, while the crusaders are weaker. Brumbies are obviously clear faves it's just whether the crusaders are capable of taking it to them.

[Squirter]

CRUSADERS have a full crew to pick from Mr J. Cris Jack is back from injury...no excuses, they got a hard row to hoe. Keeping me money in me wallet and suck on a few cans instead and enjoy a bloody good game.

Beer O'Clock.

[goldmember]

Sportz, MR J, do you have a thought on which team will score 1st points, because i have'nt been watching the last couple of games and wanted to have a punt on this option.

BRUMBIES: $1.77
CRUSADERS: $2.00

cheers

[sportznut]

Well, the $2 doesn't look too bad because Carter is a fine kicker and he's liable to slot over an early penalty. Personally though, I wouldn't be having a bet on something like that. It's too much of a lottery.

[Mr J]

Well the team that scores more points is more likely to score first. That's assuming it's not a try scoring team vs a 3 pointer team (hello england). No team overdoes shots at goal, but it is a final and there's no incentive to score the 4 tries. 2.00 is definately a bad bet, not sure about 1.77. Tomorrow I'll get my system to predict a score and I'd be able to work out a fair price off that.

[Desi]

Squirter,
Agree with you...Brumbies should take it but wouldn't write off Canterbury...will just watch and enjoy...ACT are traditionally slow starters and have managed to come back and blow teams away...they will not want to do this against the Crusaders (who can score points from anywhere but have been erratic in what was their strength- defence). Again, you don't have to score 4 tries...just win by 1 point! Good luck to both...will be a cracker!

[goldmember]

Yesterday, i was ready to back the Brumbies until i read that H2H the Crusaders have 7 wins to the Brumbies 4 and at canberra 3 wins to 2, winning last year at canberra 28-21 and this year 47-28 at christchurch, so i think i'll take +6.5 for them.

[Squirter]

Spirit of adventure Goldie...spirit of adventure.

[Squirter]

Goldmember

The opening points of a big percentage of rugby games comes from penalties from the initial breakdown so all this then comes down to the kick-off, receiver, and the toss of a coin....not for me.

[Floydyboy]

I only took crusaders +15.5 @$1.33 in one of my multis..... otherwise its cheers beers and go the Brumbies

[Squirter]

I reakon the CRUSADERS are a champion team and the BRUMBIES is a team of champions which is the best ????

[Mr J]

Goldmember I wouldn't place much importance on H2Hat all. First of all, it's already built into the bookies line so you won't find value off that alone. Second, the crusaders won 4 championships from those years. They aren't the team they used to be, and the brumbies are in a class of their own. Going by H2H doesn't reflect current talent or form.

[sportznut]

You beauty! Well done Brumbies. Must have been a great game to watch!

[Squirter]

Yeah mate, good game, no excuses form this side of the Tasman.

Roll on the tri-nations.

[Mr J]

It was a great game. The crusaders looked down and out after 5 brumby tries in 20 mins, but they managed to score 6 of the 8 remaining tries.

This brings my system to 53-16 this season.

[Floydyboy]

Well done Mr J and thanks for sharing the tips throughout the season