NRL r11

[goldmember]

EELS v STGEORGE ILL

The eels have 6 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss in 8 games aginst st george ill [ only loss by 2 pts]whilst winning all 3 payed at parramatta stadium.

last 4 games:
R22 2001 EELS 32-12 @ PARRAMATTA STADIUM
R 5 2002 DRAW 20-20 @ WOLLONGONG
R 2 2003 STG ILL 30-28 @ WOLLONGONG
R20 2003 EELS 36-10 @ PARRAMATTA STADIUM

BULLDOGS v W/TIGERS

The bulldogs have won 5/7 against the w/tigers, with their only 2 losses being at the showgrounds,bulldogs are 1/3 there.

last 4 games:
R22 2001 BULLDOGS 28-14 @ SHOWGROUNDS
R 1 2002 W/TIGERS 28-22 @ SHOWGROUNDS
R 3 2003 BULLDOGS 38-6 @ CAMPBELLTOWN
R12 2003 W/TIGERS 20-14 @ SHOWGROUNDS
[ game transfered to gosford ]
bulldogs have played there twice for 2 wins,
against nthn eagles r17, 2001 won 32-30
and r11 2002 won 28-10
w/tigers have played there once for 1 win, against nthn eagles in r10,2000 winning 18-10

COWBOYS v PENRITH

Cowboys have won 5/14 against penrith, but only 1/6 at dairy farmers[4 at penrith]

last 4 games:
R17 2001 COWBOYS 26-20 @ PENRITH
R 7 2002 COWBOYS 28-18 @ PENRITH
R10 2002 PENRITH 38-8 @ DAIRY FARMERS
R13 2003 PENRITH 28-24 @ DAIRY FARMERS

STORM v RAIDERS

The storm have won 8/13 against the raiders,winning 5/6 at olympic pk [ 1 docklands]and 4 from their last 5 clashes.

SOUTHS v WARRIORS

souths have won 3/10 against the warriors, winning 1/5 played at S.F.S [2 at ericsson]
warriors have won their last 5 encounters.

last 4 games:
R 9 2002 WARRIORS 25-18 @ ERICSSON
R14 2002 WARRIORS 46-10 @ S.F.S
R 4 2003 WARRIORS 38-16 @ ERICSSON
R16 2003 WARRIORS 31-30 @ S.F.S

MANLY v SHARKS

The sharks have won 6 of their last 8 games against nthn eagles/manly [4/5]/[2/3]since 2000 but only 1 of their last 4 at brookvale

last 4 games:
R19 2002 SHARKS 46-24 @ BROOKVALE
R 9 2003 SHARKS 40-16 @ TOYOTA PK
R15 2003 MANLY 36-18 @ BROOKVALE
R 3 2004 SHARKS 28-20 @ TOYOTA PK

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-05-19 13:18 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-05-19 13:35 ]</font>

[sportznut]

Goldmember,

Apparently the surface at the Showgrounds is not up to scratch, so I heard that the Bulldogs/W.Tigers game has actually been transferred to Gosford.

The Cowboys are a selection for my line betting system this week. Those stats don't fill me with a whole lot of confidence!

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-05-19 14:41 ]</font>

[goldmember]

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-05-19 13:37 ]</font>

[goldmember]

Compared to last week, this round is a lot harder with no good things at a good price, so i'm going to punt on points scored in multi's and single bets to look for value.

most probably,
bulldogs-w/tigers under 47.5 @ $1.85
cowboys-penrith under 47.5 @ $ 1.85
bulldogs pts 21-30 @ $3.00
souths pts 11-20 @ $2.55
elmasri 7-10pts @ $2.55
kimmorely 7-10 pts @ $2.40
eels try @ $2.20
sharks try @ $2.45
cowboys goal @ $6.50

[goldmember]

Floydyboy, no value teams standout this week due to 3 top sides having the bye and S.O.O on , I'll limit my bets to saturday's games at this stage, and back penrith to win a tight,low scoring game.

Will take the start w/tigers. The bulldogs have 4 forwards missing to s.o.o, price,o'meley,ryan and mason and the w/tigers have s. prince out. I backed and watched the bulldogs last week against the saints and in the 1st 25 mins they were standing flatfooted and running one out,making 5 metres every run until they scored, and with those players out i cant seem them making inroads into the tigers defence against sattler, laffranci senter and skandalis and with b. marshall and fitzhenry running at them they will bust them wide open just like the the saints did last week. BUGGER IT, just talked myself into backing them straight out, GET ON the WEST TIGERS .

cheers

[Floydyboy]

Well I Hope your off the mark cos ive had a ton on the treble
Lions Penrith Canterbury @ 5.15

[goldmember]

Sorry about that, hope you win, but i find the best form guide is my gut and it is usually spot on. The guts are 50/50 on this game so looking at it realistically i will take the start and have something on the win in multis

cheers

[Floydyboy]

Bulldogs Line-2.5
Canberra Raiders Line+17.5
Penrith Panthers Line+1.5
Adelaide Crows Line+23.5
Kangaroos Line+32.5
Brisbane Lions Line+22.5
Geelong Cats Line+38.5
Hawthorn Hawks Line+43.5

$13.55 Fixed Odds $10.0

[goldmember]

Looks ok to me , but i would have taken a smaller start on hawthorn ,geelong,kangaroos and the raiders and got a better price, good luck.

[Desi]

Gold,
Agree that all the games are open to be taken and heaps of close calls this round although I still think that the Bulldogs will sneak in against the Tigers (even after their good win last week against the Raiders)...Melbourne will have have to tighten up in the forwards against the Raiders (who have Davico, Wiki and Croker returning and need to win this one to stop the rot)...a away Raiders win will not surprise.

If the Rabbitohs and the Eels cant beat the Warriors and the Dragons (respectively) this weekend then they will be cellar dwellers for the rest of the season...the Dragons have lost a bunch of players thru injury, SOR and naughty phone calls...the Warriors at their lowest point (mentally, physically and bad haircuts)..both games are there for the taking! (Betting on the 2 games though is risky given the recent erratic playing form and poor defence of all 4 teams!)

Actually, the same could be said for the Manly v Sharks game..although Walker has been able to provide some attacking spark at first five on top of some great forward work esp from Harris, Menzies and Haumono...
I'm picking Des's boys are on a roll and will actually be better without Monaghan on Sunday!

Panthers should come back from a well earned rest and score enough points to head off the Cowboys (even without captain Gower...) Gold Coast have been steady in recent outings but lack any of the class and team pattern of Johnny Lang's outfit.

Good luck...and go the Maroons! LOL!

[goldmember]

Desi, did you watch the bulldogs last week, in the 1st half they were lost, no go forward, if they do that again this week without mason,price,o'meley and ryan,they will find themselves down 10 or 12 pts against the tigers and they are a hard team to get past when they are in front,there like bulldogs, no pun inteaded.

The raiders will go better because the storm is without c.smith and b.slater and with davico and wiki back its a 50/50. the raiders only loss under this ref [2003-2004]is against the storm in canberra [refs stats put in wrong post, NRL r10]

The stats say eels the money says eels , but the dragons get ryles and blacklock back, leave this one alone.

manly/sharks. pass
souths /warriors. pass

probably penrith with their good record up there, but a few missing and without gower it will be up to girdler and campbell to get them home in a tight one.

[Desi]

Gold,
To be honest, did not see Doggies last week...just think without Prince, Tiger's direction and kicking game will suffer and Marshall will come under a lot more pressure (in only his second game back)...I like the Tiger's grit and never give in attitude (under Sheens) their defence is solid and they play for each other...it will be a tight battle but I just think the Bulldogs halves experience might pull them through!

Cameron Smith is a big loss for the Storm, Gold...hes been in terrific form and Slater adds that extra thrust from the backs so he will be missed as well...tell you what...agreee with you that the Maroons squad dont sound too bad even without Lockyer...question is if Hagan can get them up mentally and with a solid game plan cos the Blues always are dangerous in the last 20 mins and should never be given a head start! Thanks for the stats (again) Gold..they have proven invaluable!

[goldmember]

Desi, they have lost prince, but last week when marshall came back as 5/8 they moved fitzhenry to the centres and now he's back in the halves again, this time no.7 on his back, he is pretty nippy and has a good kick and chase game, so i don't think they'll lose too much there, if the doggies are a little slow in defence, watch out he did a good job when marshall was out injured.

[Desi]

Thanks Gold...had a look at the Doggies forwards...Maiava and Scott's starting with solid but not brilliant loosies...Tigers definitely have their best chance to win...they won against them at the end of last year so psychologically will not be overawed...can't find too much value out there in this weeks NRL although the Raiders might be good on the line...tend to stay away from margins and H2H...

[jakelee]

Hi Guys,

Just six games this weekend, with Knights Roosters and Broncos having the weekend off. Shame, because these three are always good betting. The real stinkers for betting are the Eels. But, let's see how we go this weekend.

Eels v Dragons
The bookies can't call this one. They suspect that the Dragons will win against a dull Eels outfit, who have blown up against the Cowboys and the Storm. But, the stats say Eels, at home, at night against a sorely depleted Dragons. That's enough for them to lay the Eels as the fav. I'm actually thinking the bookies are gonna try to use Parra as a lay for the entire round. The odds are very conservative (the under/over is 45.5), with even the margin betting showing very conservative odds. I wish I could bet on Morris giving a penalty from the kick off :wink: OK, what's the bet? Dragons 1st scoring play Penalty @ $6.60.

Bulldogs v Tigers
The Bulldogs are the changlings of the NRL. They'll play upto the level of any team, and when they have a handy first half lead, they'll take it easy in the second half. They'll play to the level of the Tigers, but I'm thinking like the other guys here that they might lose it in the forwards this week, and without Price... hmmm. I think the Tigers will surprise the Bulldogs early on, so take Tigers 1-4 Half time @ $7.50.

Storm v Raiders
No Billy Slater? No Smith? But Wiki's in. Gotta take the Raiders on the odds here. True they have been ordinarly, but they really should have beaten the Eels by a bigger margin. Raiders to win @ $3.10 (there are better odds around), and total match points under 47.5 @ $1.85

Cowboys v Panthers
The Panthers are stinging. They need to win this one. Cowboys have started to turn their season around, but it's not momentum yet. Take Panthers to win @ $1.50 (better odds around!) and Preston to score first @ $15.

Souths v Warriors
This will be a beauty. Imagine such short odds for Souths over the Warriors? Take souths with the start +6.5 @ $1.85

Manly v Sharks
Another cracker. I am anticipating extra time for this one. Take Sharks with exact winning margin of 1 point @ $31, and take Manly with exact winning margin of 5 @ $91. (just incase Noddy goes to early for the FG and let Manly in under the posts before extra time :wink:

Good luck all!

[goldmember]

With the panthers losing L.Rooney to the S.O.O that will bring the cowboys right into the game now , i might have something on them at the odds, plus a couple of multi's with the Bulldogs-W/tigers game and sit back and watch them.

[moeee]

I'll read almost anything gambling,but I don't understand the language.
Goldmember,what is S.O.O.

Mo.

[Floydyboy]

good call gold hope port adelaide do it for me
State Of Origin MO


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Floydyboy on 2004-05-22 21:00 ]</font>

[goldmember]

So far my NRL bets going a lot better than my ping pong bets.
Bulldogs 21-30pts $3.00
El masri 7-10pts $2.45
Cowboys goal $6.50
Nthq/pen U 47.5 $1.85

still got going:
Souths 11-20pts $2.55
Kimmorely 7-10pts $2.40
Sharks try $2.45

losers , not many:
Cant/w/tigers U 47.5
eels try

[Floydyboy]

Im in for a bit of Sunday action here we go again
Warriors -4.5
Cronulla +1.5
W/Bulldogs +29.5
Hawthorn +43.5
$6.00

[Floydyboy]

Im in for a bit of Sunday action here we go again
Warriors -4.5
Cronulla +1.5
W/Bulldogs +29.5
Hawthorn +43.5
$6.00

[sportznut]

You must REALLY like those bets. You posted 'em twice! :smile:

You must REALLY like those bets. You posted 'em twice! :smile:

[Floydyboy]

I pushed the button twice . Its hard when youve got webbed feet

[goldmember]

To be honest, i'm not very interested in these sunday games,i only have a couple of points scored bets going as a interest.

[Desi]

Gold,
Good call regarding Bulldogs v Tigers...reckon today's games are a lottery so will stay away although might look at Manly game (just to make it interesting when watching) definitely staying away from the Warriors v Souths (that's crystal ball stuff that one)...

SOO-Minchello's sacking must bode well for the Maroons..what do ya reckon?

[Floydyboy]

You did alright with those bets.. first score etc.. that $6 divi was a good one .
I find that like last week for instance I started watching footy at 2pm through till about 10pm and throwing the odd beer or10 down my throat then going to bed and watching a bit of english soccer up for golf sunday morning .By the time i got home i was all footied out never watched a match .
But I agree with you that the less bets you have the more chance you have of winning .1,2or3 solid bets even if you have to take the shorts.But you cant afford to be wrong too often

[goldmember]

Pesonally i dont think HE will be a big loss[i follow the roosters]because L Rooney is a big strong winger with pace and Minichello has become a better fullback than when he was a winger, i find that Hornby is the week link, caught everything in the 1st half against the Bulldogs ,then in the 2nd half kept dropping them especially when shielded by a team mate and patten still out jumped him and scored, keeping him in the side will be an advantage to the canetoads.
desi, souths kick early goals, @ $6.25 might be worth a dollar,but who knows what the warriors are going to do.

Floydyboy, i look at which teams are playing , who the ref is , and up at townsville the ref's blow a lot of penalty's for some reason.,also the cowboys kick goals when ever they get an opportunity

[sportznut]

On 2004-05-23 11:07, Desi wrote:
SOO-Minchello's sacking must bode well for the Maroons..what do ya reckon?


Well, I had thought that with no Lockyer and Qld's terrible record at Telstra Stadium, NSW were specials. With all this stuff that's going on now, I'm not so sure.

[moeee]

On 2004-05-23 10:13, Unlucky Phil wrote:
You must REALLY like those bets. You posted 'em twice! :smile:



You're funny.

I'm gonna do a search on you and read your stuff.Hope you don't feel like I'm prying.

Cheers Mo.

On 2004-05-23 11:49, moeee wrote:

On 2004-05-23 10:13, Unlucky Phil wrote:
You must REALLY like those bets. You posted 'em twice! :smile:

You're funny.
I'm gonna do a search on you and read your stuff.Hope you don't feel like I'm prying.
Cheers Mo.



No woes Mo, but you will find me most BORRING.
Not like my TWINZ, Sportznuts, whose knowledge of most sportz is amazing.

[moeee]

Still funny.

Mo.

[Floydyboy]

That Kimmorley would have to be the worst kicker in the game pots em from the side line and misses em from in front .... surely they can find someone that would be worthy of being in the side and kick as well ....Manlys coming back from the dead and Cronullas scored 5 tries with 2conversions

[goldmember]

Couldn't agree more, i need him to kick 1 more,
kimmorely 7-10pts $2.40, already got sharks try $2.45 and souths 11-20 $2.55

[Floydyboy]

good luck ....are you usually that successful with those sort of bets ...They seem a bit "guessy" to me > But obviously not the way your knocking em over

[goldmember]

I have been watching footy for a long time and after a while you get to know how some teams and players go against others , so you can say its a educated GUESS, but you still have to have luck , sometimes a lot of luck

[goldmember]

on the individual pts scored on the nsw tab, they generally put up the goal kickers
0-6,7-10 and 11+ from each team, so you only have to pick 1 out of 3

[Floydyboy]

Fulltime .. about time ...I got my multi up at $6.20 thatll give me something to play with next week. Thought the sharks were gunna eat me alive there for a while

[Floydyboy]

oh ok Ive still got a nsw tab account is that where you put those others on as well .....Ill have a look cheers

[goldmember]

yep, just league, [not the 1-39 on afl, thats sportodds],its either under rugby league and nrl extra markets

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-05-23 17:19 ]</font>