My betting system -- help.

[Rubber Duck]

I have lost all my punting money agin today.
This is silly. I am following the tipsters and backing good horses and just keep losing.

I wrote this yesterday in a huff so I have altered it and shown you what I did.
Here is what I did.
I had $200 to bet with and a bit of lose chnge for a few drinks in between.

I always bet on Sydney races.

Sydney.

Race1 $10 Participate win at $1.70
Race2 $5 each way Imposing Waltz loss
Race3 $10 each way Jimmy The Bear loss
Race4 $30 Thorns loss
Race5 $40 Veteran loss
Race6 $100 Excellerator loss

I now had $7 left so
Race7 $7 Zedivain at $3.20 win
Race8 $22 Kootoomootoo loss again

Wiped out on good horses again.



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Rubber Duck on 2001-08-05 19:47 ]</font>

[michael]

Dear Fatboy

Can I make the recommendation you do a little light reading at your local library or good bookstore. Here are a couple of excellent titles to get you started.

1/ Horseracing Theory and Practice - Paul Segar

2/ Winning More - Don Scott Revised Edition

Good Luck and Good Punting

Michael

[Fatboy]

Hey Michael
I'm a Fatkid, not a Rubber Duck !!
To the duck! You would probably find more success and value betting on the 2nd or 3rd payline. Personally I have a real dislike for backing favourites unless there is value and odd's around 2-1 or $3.00. Excellerator was a good horse but a ridiculous bet at $1.80 and so was the race in general unless of course you backed Mistegic at $52.80. My advice as a novice who has made a few mistakes, is to bet with monopoly money ($1000 bank and 1% bets) for a couple of months,at least this way you won't loose your hard earned cash and will be into the Spring season when the good horses start winning ( hopefully :smile:
Cheers

[Mark]

To the Rubber Duck.
Accept this as constructive criticism & not just me running down what you backed.
(1) NEVER back favourites, which rules out just about all of your bets, unless they are 5 or 6/1 plus, ie Doncasters, Stradbrokes etc
(2)NEVER EVER back maidens (Jimmy the Bear)
(3)NEVER back horses who have had 10 or more starts whose win rate is 10% or less (Veteran).
(4)NEVER chase losses, as you appear to have done.
(5)NEVER back inexperienced riders on short priced runners. (Imposing Waltz, Kootoomootoo)
(6)Bet at the track. I noticed you said $1.70 Participate, you could have got 6/4!
As someone else put, you would be better off backing the 2nd or 3rd favourite, and backing them each-way.
Good Luck

[Rubber Duck]

Thanks for your advice. It know it will help me do better.

[mr magic]

Mark,
Most of your advice makes sense except one ... never bet on favourites except at 6/1 in big fields. Hypothetically, Sunline is sent out at 2/1 against dogs at set weights. Is this a no bet race for you? By all means back favourites IF THEY ARE VALUE.

If you had to narrow successful punting down to one rule it would be - ONLY BET VALUE. A good selection at good odds ensures long term profits.

[Mark]

Sunline.....what a horse.
I backed her at 2/1 when she won the Doncaster (I think it was that race)
I backed her at 6/1 in her first Cox Plate. I took her with the field in the first 4 in her 2nd Cox Plate, paid $22000 for 50c, which equated to around 33/1 for a 6/4 chance.
I backed Fairway at 14/1 at Caulfield when he beat her, which by the way is my screen saver.
I backed the field except her & Adam when she ran 3rd at 1/3, for a huge result.
I stand by my statement of not backing favourites. Sunline's 2nd Cox Plate as above, was the last time I backed a favourite, & is paying for our trip to this year's race to see if she can do it again.

[Marcus]

If Greg Childs misses out on riding Sunline because of suspension he might yet regret having gone overseas to ride in all the rich races there.
It is early days yet with his appeal.
My money is on Damien Oliver, Jim Cassidy or Darren Beadman getting the Sunline ride if he is suspended.

[brisvegas]

i will leave out sunline in manikato and will take next 6 in ratings boxed for first4 at a cost of $360. it will pay 25000 if sunline has shocker. good odds i feel ..... bris

[michael]

Dear Brisvegas

Very interesting idea. I have two small points.

A/ DON'T BOX. Try taking one out combinations betting to expected payouts. If your right you will be laughing. I suspect if your right you will get good overs on expected payouts. I have the formula in a old Don Scott book if you need it.

B/ Consider covering your tracks by taking a saver on Sunline just in case your wrong.

Michael
Good Luck and Good Punting

[StJude]

Dear Mark,

Perhaps you should take a closer look at your screensaver. Either you have mistaken Flemington for Caulfield, or you are looking at completely different horses!

[Mark]

St Jude
You're right, it was Flemington. Either way it makes a good picture, especially when you're on the winner at 14/1! You can almost hear Darren Beadman growling at Fairway to keep going.