last start winners in 7 days

[noel]

i notice that weekend winners super elegant, natural woman and heraklid were all last start winners within 7 days and all starting at excellent prices....by the way, how on earth did heraklid start at $26???.....he won his previous start in saturday metro class, had a reasonable strike rate and his previous win was no fluke, having had consistent form before that win.....
maybe these last start winners in 7 days are worth a shot if they're at generous odds....
cheers, noel

[sportznut]

I have no idea why Heraklid paid so much but I'm certainly not complaining! I like backing last start winners within 7 days and it was a great day for them on Saturday. :smile:


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-05-24 13:44 ]</font>

[Paddy]

I love Mondays :smile:

[Chrome Prince]

noel,

Backing these willy nilly leads to the poor house, there are reasons why at least two of the three mentioned won, apart from the days factor - as part of my other filters they also bobbed up.

look at what else they had in common :wink:


Before you start on me Paddy, at least three people on this forum received my tips before the event via email. :razz:

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Chrome Prince on 2004-05-24 14:27 ]</font>

[Sandgroper]

I sometimes (depending on some other factors) add a bonus unit (for next start) for horses that have performed well at their last start (eg. finished within 2 lengths of winner) & are backing up within 7 days.

_________________
All the best from the West

Sandgroper :smile:

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2004-05-24 14:47 ]</font>

[crash]

A horse running within 7 days tells us it has no little injuries and pulled up well from it's last start.

I think the 7 days could safely be extended out to 14 days [but not the good old 21 days] and the same conclusions drawn regarding the horses health.

Being a last start winner can be an indication of more to come perhaps, but for some horses, that we won't be seeing another win until next prep.

Class of next run and weight become important indicators to a horses chances next start and SP [for most runners who won last start] becomes a value issue, as generally for last start winners it's just not there.

Spotting and backing the first winning run of a prep. is where the real value usually is.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2004-05-25 11:08 ]</font>

[El Gordo]

Crash and sportznut – what a great tag-team :smile:

Subtle plug Chrome Prince, now where do we find your email address again? :wink:


The “first winning run of a prep” doesn’t have to be 1st place either.
Often a horse’s first glimpse of form (and value return) is a place a big odds.

[darkydog2002]

CRASH .Re the 14 days .Malcolm Knowles had an article on his site a couple of weeks ago .It went .
LAST RUN IN 14 DAYS
RAN A GOOD RACE WITHIN THE PAST MONTH.

Good race = 1000 -1600 Within 2 Lengths
1600 - 3200 Within 3 lengths.
Cheers.
darky.

[Chrome Prince]

On 2004-05-25 09:52, El Gordo wrote:
Subtle plug Chrome Prince, now where do we find your email address again? :wink:


1. No plug
2. You don't find my email address, it was given to three people on this forum who are interested in swapping information and systems and who I trust and they trust me.
Simple give and take.

I guess racestats at hotmail dot com doesn't ring a bell

_________________


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Unlucky Phil on 2004-05-25 14:36 ]</font>

[Chrome Prince]

Yes Phil that's my address, and I post to a racing list under that address too.

Not hard to figure it out.

[partypooper]

Paddy, I agree Mondays are easily the BEST!!!! hahaah!

[trench digger]

I always assumed that when a trainer starts his horse within 7 days it means 1 of 2 things:-

1. The horse is in or approaching peak form and the trainer does not believe he can keep the horse fit for more than 7 more days.

or

2. The trainer is using the run to get the horse fit for a race he is being set for in coming weeks.

[Chrome Prince]

trench digger,

Results tend to contradict this.

I think it's more about finding the appropriate race and on what date it falls.

A half fit horse - there'd be no point in grinding it down in such a small space of time. To get a horse fit takes patience in it's preparation.

7 days indicates the horse is in peak form (generally) and ready to win.

There are far more last start winners in 7 days than last start unplaced within 7 days.

Some of these 7 days horses have run the fastest sectional times of their career last start.

[Merriguy]

"Unplaced" or "non-winners", Chrome?

Oh! Oh! Think I read your post wrongly :oops:

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Merriguy on 2004-05-29 10:24 ]</font>