Smart tipsters

[moeee]

I said I was going to pass on an analysis of betting of tipsters selections.

Well I can't get the hang of Excel,but me old GWbasic knowledge is back in town.
After many hours of pissfarting around I've finally got a program going that will do the job.
Still got a lot of boring repetitious work to chuck data into program.
Early days says that tipsters certainly appear to be beating the 15% edge Sportsbet gives out on Fridays.
Well,beating ain't quite the word.They are still losing,but less than 15%.
I'm upto only 7 rounds of 2003 data,which is only 56 selections.
I do notice that it is a poor sample.So I'll be back after 14 rounds of 2003.

Cheers Mo.

[Floydyboy]

If ya cant put yourself above the tipsters moeee ya might as well give the game away

[Floydyboy]

Shoot me down if you like . I know we have to have knowledge to make the right decisions but I really think that we can become over analitical (thats maybe where the phrase anal(litical) retentive comes from )and waste a lot of time coming up with an answer that we might have come to earlier with a lot less work.Especially in a two horse race . What do you think

[moeee]

This is my thinking Floydyboy.
If you want to know about world affairs you wouldn't ask a champion boxer.
You don't go to a dentist for a broken leg.
I know what I know,but if I combine my knowledge with an expert in their field,I surely have to come up with a more accurate diagnosis.
For example if I knew a lot about black and you knew a lot about white and we joined forces,I reckon we could take on the whole Collingwood army.

Cheers Mo.

[Floydyboy]

I agree with with the boxer ,dentist analogy but to me using blanket selections from 'Tipsters' isnt the way to go.I personally see a lot more value in informed opinion which includes Players out or returning and how that might affect the out come or an aspect of the game
Along the lines of (from on the punt)
QUOTE
Collingwood will have been delighted to get the four points on the board last week with a good fighting win over the Crows. They will also be bolstered by the return of Burns, Fraser and Lockyer who all resume this week from injury. The Kangaroos as we all know play with plenty of spirit and fight very hard but do seem to lack class in certain areas. They do however posses a magnificent midfield. Very hard call this one - slight preference to the Magpies with some star players returning, but I'll pass.
UNQUOTE
I dont even suggest that you follow his tips but rather glean what info you can from such comment ...you may even disagree with it but there may be something there that may change your opinion or sense of "value"....
over to you

[moeee]

Like I said I've been looking at tipsters results in AFL 2003.
Getting a bit fed up with it,but am noticing that people like Mike Sheahan and Jon Anderson done much better profit wise than ex-players,Lyon,Wallace,Hird,Healy.
Both done better than me even.
But when I average these two tipsters margins together,I get an overall loss again.
This I don't understand.
A tipster with a winning profit joins forces with another tipster with a winning profit equals a losing profit.
Does that mean you can know too much for your own good?

Cheers Mo.

[Floydyboy]

Well theres always Sportz's idea that you only bet when your tip corresponds with theirs (at least that way they wont be ahead of you in the tipping lol)if you think theyre good enough.
You could pick the card in single bets on a weekend and still not be in front enough to carry you through next week or cover last weeks losses the odds just arent there unless your back a heap of second favourites and they get up.
The only way to do any good i think is A)Have 1decent bet on the weekend maybe 2 even if you have to take short odds
b)Points start(set your own also) where i definately wouldnt be depending on tipsters for (id rather get that info from here )
c)2,3or 4 leg multis with or without start and maybe the odd allweekender thrown in there just to see if you can last past saturday
d)All of the above coupled with your own knowledge and any gleaned .
Ive been Haphazzard with my betting so far because ive been having fun and holding my own..... but the eels stung me last weekend and along with some ideas from here Im gunna pull my head in (no dont rub your hands together with glee Ill still be posting my losers for everyone to see )But ill be concentrating on the structure of my bets .
Anyway we'll know by post mortem time on sunday how it all went... hopefully better than last week