AFL Round 11 Predictions

FRIDAY JUNE 4 AEST
Collingwood vs West Coast Eagles
Telstra Dome 7:40 PM AEST

SATURDAY JUNE 5 AEST
Hawthorn vs Essendon
MCG 2:10 PM AEST

Adelaide vs Carlton
AAMI Stadium 2:10 PM ACST

Brisbane Lions vs Port Adelaide
Gabba 7:10 PM AEST

Kangaroos vs Richmond
Telstra Dome 7:10 PM AEST

SUNDAY JUNE 6 AEST
Sydney Swans vs St Kilda
S.C.G. 1:10 PM AEST

Western Bulldogs vs Geelong
Telstra Dome 2:10 PM AEST

Fremantle vs Melbourne
Subiaco Oval 2:10 PM AWST

[Floydyboy]

Off The Top of The Head Selections
see how they hold up
Collingwood
Essendon
Adelaide
Brisbane
Roos
St Kilda
Geelong
Melbourne

[moeee]

Alert to Floydyboy!
The Fremantle game against Melbourne is in fact a home game in Fremantle.
Hate for you to get seven legs in and miss the last.

Cheers Mo.

[goldmember]

COLLINGWOOD @1.40
ESSENDON @$1.09
ADELAIDE @$1.14
LIONS @$1.22
KANGAROOS @$1.58
ST KILDA @$1.20
GEELONG @$1.33
FREEMANTLE @$1.40

[Floydyboy]

Yeah I know its a graveyard I think only Saints have done the business over there this year. Ill hold onto my cards Melbourne arent doing too badly ...Might even be a few points and a bit of value there for my multis...cheers

[moeee]

THE Tips.

Collingwood $1.80 Eagles $2.25 5 pts.
Adelaide $1.15 Carlton $7 38 pts.
Essendon $1.25 Hawthorn $4.90 29 pts.
Brisbane $1.45 Port $3.20 17 pts.
Kangaroos $1.30 Richmond $4.10 24 pts.
St.Kilda $1.20 Sydney $6.20 35 pts.
Geelong $1.30 Bulldogs $4.25 25 pts.
Fremantle $1.65 Melbourne $2.50 9 pts.

Cheers Mo.


_________________
You can only win if the odds are in your favour!

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: moeee on 2004-06-01 18:26 ]</font>

[Floydyboy]

What price do you think would be offered on the Demons if they were playing at home ..any bids

[sportznut]

$1.40

[moeee]

$1.60

[Floydyboy]

Sorry Im not up to the math .
Call it$1.50
So at$3.00 that makes the hometown adv worth how many points

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Floydyboy on 2004-06-03 22:05 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Floydyboy on 2004-06-03 22:06 ]</font>

[rabbitz]

have taken following treble with sport odds
collingwood -5.5
essendon -28.5
adelaide -22.5
$2.98
what do you think?
cheers

[moeee]

Floydyboy
The home town advantage varies against different opposition.
A team like Melbourne,who travel well to W.A. ,the advantage in my reckoning is 24 points.

Cheers Mo.

[moeee]

On 2004-06-04 00:41, rabbitz wrote:
have taken following treble with sport odds
collingwood -5.5
essendon -28.5
adelaide -22.5
$2.98
what do you think?
cheers


Safe with Adelaide.
Pretty much the same with the pies.
Hawthorn are liable to do anything after all the bullshit last week.

Anyway,I certainly respect your tips after last week rabbitz.

Best of luck to you.

Cheers Mo.

[moeee]

I went this way.

Usual bet on St.Kilda for premiership.
You know.What you're actually doing when you bet the Saints for the flag is your betting the Saints can play this well in September.
Sure Brisbane can be awesome,but the Saints are consistently awesome.

Anyway a Multi -

West Coast +20.5 pts.
Hawthorn +40.5 pts.
Kangaroos to win
Geelong to win

Came out just under $160 for my $20

Mo.

A $51,000 bet has been made on Collingwood to beat West Coast Eagles. So if I bet on Collingwood and it lost at least I would know somebody else lost a lot more than me.

Who doesn't think Collingwood will win?

[goldmember]

Moeee, don't know about the west coast's points start, as they started away games well, winning against w/bulldogs 144-137, losing to essendon 137-131, but have fallen away since then, losing to carlton by 49 pts, melb by 49 pts and st kilda by 101 pts. The only thing is, they are playing a collingwood team that's only now staring to get some roll on, but still a bit patchy.

COLLINGWOOD 1-19 Pts at $4.65 looks a strong bet.

[goldmember]

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-06-04 19:03 ]</font>

[goldmember]

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-06-04 19:04 ]</font>

[goldmember]

looks a good price,you could have a saver on 20-39 @ $3.50, how long have they had the 4 margin bets, its more interesting than the 1-24,25+ and the 1-39, 40+ we have over here.

[Floydyboy]

I know its off topic but just for a comparrison .
If you go to ANY major soccer league in England and Europe you will find these figures give or take a %point or two
Home wins 44%
Away wins 28%
Draw 28%
and that is consistent even going back a few years.
You get some odd figures if you start digging round say 3rd div teams and some
weaker leagues .
Have we got any consistency of figures say in AFL or NRL

[goldmember]

I'd have to dig around to find out,because i never gave it much thought, but someone else may know of a site that has info on the NRL and AFL.
I use soccer stats.com for PL, which has those percentages, which is probably where you get yours from.

[Floydyboy]

Yep

The COLLINGWOOD 1-19 point bet ($4.65 return) won - Collingwood won by 18 points - but it is only a consolation for the other $80 that i lost. i only bet $7 on this bet so the return is just $27.9, but if I had bet my other $80 as well I'd be sitting on just over $400.

Which is a more solid sounding bet...
Brisbane to beat Port Adelaide by 1-19 points or 20-39 points?

[Mr J]

What are the prices? The result my system has produced for this match falls in the Bris by 1-19.

[Desi]

Think the previous encounters Port v Lions have been close affairs (even at the Gabba)...

[goldmember]

Last 4 encounters:
pt adel by 6 in adel,[lions$1.50/pt$2.40]
br lions by 56 in bris[lions$1.20/pt$4.50]*
br lions by 10 in adel[lions$1.40/pt$2.70]*
pt adel by 1 in bris[lions$1.80/pt$1.90]*

* night game
<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-06-05 12:10 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-06-05 12:12 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-06-05 12:13 ]</font>

[rabbitz]

collingwood -5.5 a few heart murmurs but won
essendon -28.5 fell in by 74 points
adelaide -22.5,up by 29 at quarter time and 25 at three quarter time,well you would think your safe but no.adelaide for banned list,got my vote

[moeee]

On 2004-06-05 03:44, Mr J wrote:
What are the prices? The result my system has produced for this match falls in the Bris by 1-19.


Mr J
On another thread,amongst your information was Port Adelaide +26.5 points.
If your system predicts Brisbane between 1-19 "what the?"

Cheers Mo.

[Mr J]

"Mr J
On another thread,amongst your information was Port Adelaide +26.5 points.
If your system predicts Brisbane between 1-19 "what the?"

Simple. My system predicts Brisbane will win by 1-19 points. So I take the spread (handicap) on Port for +26.5. So if Brisbane won by 1-19 points then the +26.5 covers.

Probally the term 'spread' that threw you off. Remember 'spread' is the same as handicap or line.

Selecting a team to win by a certain margin (e.g. Brisbane by 1-19 points) is margin betting.

[Floydyboy]

Did someone say there was a market for what round St Kilda was going to lose their first game.
They had one for Arsenal so I dont know if thats where i got the idea in my head

[sportznut]

Yeah, I was the one that mentioned that. I think there are a couple of Bookies who are doing that. Here are TAB Sportsbet's odds:

ROUND 11- SYDNEY $3.65
ROUND 14- PORT ADELAIDE $5.00
NO LOSSES IN H & A SEASON $6.00
ROUND 15- MELBOURNE $7.00
ROUND 12- W.BULLDOGS $7.50
ROUND 17- ESSENDON $8.00
ROUND 21- BRISBANE $8.00
ROUND 13- HAWTHORN $11.00
ROUND 18- GEELONG $13.00
ROUND 16- RICHMOND $21.00
ROUND 19- ADELAIDE $26.00
ROUND 20- KANGAROOS $31.00
ROUND 22- FREMANTLE $41.00

[Floydyboy]

Thanks ..I might go for Port and Melb

[Mr J]

I have Sydney winning outright today.

good choice

[moeee]

He said it before,and he said it again.
Well done Mr J.
Credit to you for that one.
Funny how you think some-ones on drugs or something,with the comments and selections they make.
Well Mr J,you must be on performance enhancing steroids to come up with Sydney.Again,well done.

[sportznut]

I think Mr J's system actually relates more to the two teams' comparative performances in recent seasons rather than their current form against other teams. Is that right Mr J? Anyway, if that's the case, then Sydney really had to be the selection! St Kilda had a terrible recent record against Sydney, especially at the SCG. They hadn't beaten Sydney for ages and their last meeting was a total thrashing!

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-06-06 20:35 ]</font>

[Mr J]

AFL letting me down this weekend, went 3-4. NRL made up for it though 5-1.

My system uses both sportz. H2H would only really influence the pick my system makes if it rates both teams equally and the h2h is very one-sided.

It judges home advantage, road performance, consistency, current form, a bit of h2h etc.

I don't expect it to do as well in the AFL as the NRL.

[goldmember]

Thank god for the swans, it was getting too boring watching st kilda [and others]winning by cricket scores every week,maybe they should cut their their competition down to 10 or 12 teams [they started with 10],as some of the players are pathetic and belong in local comps. Richmond and hawthorn are a disgrace and a waste of space, they dont even try.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-06-07 10:47 ]</font>

[moeee]

Here's some truth for you Goldmember.

You have no control over what others do,but you have control over what you choose to do.
Stick to your banned list and they can play as they wish and it will have no effect on you whatever the outcome.

Cheers Mo.

[Floydyboy]

HERES SOME TRUTH MOEEE...... Primos put the list up PUT YA TIPS IN