French Open: Finals/Italian MotoGP

Coria vs Gaudio
Myskina vs Dementieva

I'm picking Coria and Myskina to win.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: primo on 2004-06-04 23:47 ]</font>



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: primo on 2004-06-06 20:03 ]</font>

[sportznut]

I'm worried about Gaudio. He's playing VERY well at the moment. Do you think he has a chance? You see, I backed Coria pre-tournament at $3.75 and then after Nalbandian beat Kuerten I stupidly had a small saver bet on him at $4 too. I was really expecting Nalbandian to beat Gaudio, so I'm not sure what to do now.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-06-05 07:21 ]</font>

[Mr J]

The mathematical answer is that you shouldn't hedge.

But when we are basically risking alot we don't listen to EV. We would like to think more about the distribution of potential winnings. I'd put in a hedge, how much is really up to you.

[sportznut]

Silly thing is that I went against my usual betting strategy which has worked quite well for me in the past.

Usually, I pick one player out pre-tournament that I think is good value and should make the final. Then if they do make it, I save on their opponent. Well, this time, I was so confident that the winner of Nalbandian and Kuerten would make the final, I went off a match too early! :roll:

I'll take a look at the odds on Gaudio and have a think about it.

Coria will not lose to Gaudio, despite how good Gaudio has been playing. Dementieva will lose to Myskina; her serve is not strong enough and Myskina has been up against tougher competition as well.

I'll be betting the double, Coria-Myskina ($1.87 OZBet TAB)

Myskina defeated Dementieva 6-1 6-2

[El Gordo]

Thanks for that primo. Advantage server :smile:

[ozjeep78]

Hey Sportznut,
I am in a similiar position to you. I took Coria before the quarters and will just be putting a stake-saver on Gaudio. As good as Gaudio has been this tournament, I still have doubts over his mental toughness. The bloke broke down after winning the semi, a match early to be doing that I would think. In saying that, Gaudio has been impressive in finishing off matches of late and Coria may be feeling the pressure of expectation.
Gaudio won't take Coria out of his comfort zone as Henman did superbly for a set and a half. Also, Gaudio has beaten Hewitt and Nalbandian to get there, both opponents in descent form but not entirely comfortable on the dirt and made alot of errors.Gaudio won't get those errors from Coria and will find it difficult to hit winners past Coria,even if Gaudio's backhand is working.
I'm also having a small go at Coria 3 sets to 1 as on previous matches between the pair and form Gaudio is capable of grabbing a set. I think it might be the first as Coria may start off a bit slow and then find his consistency.
That's my two cents worth anyway...

Sete Gibernau has the best odds to win but I've bet on Biaggi.

[sportznut]

A couple of the sports tipping websites that I use both picked Biaggi to win. Mind you, that was before he finished down a bit low in qualifying, so who knows?

Guadio beat Coria
0-6 3-6 6-4 6-1 8-6

Coria sustained an injury in the third set as he looked like wrapping the match up. If you think you lost big money look at all these other gamblers who did.

1.03 £52,164
1.04 £258,396
1.05 £209,261
1.06 £115,952
1.07 £110,703
1.08 £146,389
1.09 £181,047
1.10 £66,134
1.11 £47,611
1.12 £98,761
1.13 £99,240
1.14 £39,759
1.15 £78,771
1.16 £27,146
1.17 £6,875
1.18 £5,798
1.19 £17,007
1.20 £27,604
1.21 £125,313
1.22 £46,557

Be glad you are not one of them.

And the MotoGP

1. Valentino Rossi
2. Sete Gibernau
3. Max Biaggi

[Mr J]

Well you can be sure the bookies made a killing.

[sportznut]

Well, I ended up saving on Gaudio. His form had been too good to leave him out, and although I thought Coria would win, anything can happen in Tennis and that was proven last night. I ended up making a small profit, but I certainly didn't do nearly as well as if I had used my normal betting strategy. Dumb, dumb, dumb!!!

As for the MotoGp, I had a small each-way bet on Biaggi, so again I made a small profit there.