Pro-punter package

[Mr J]

Hey guys I'm interested in the pro-punter package and would like to hear subscibers opinions on the service.

I'd also like to know why they have a special deal with IAS. Why would a bookie want the action of punters who will beat them up for $$$ and give them a bonus on top?!!??

Thanks in advance.

[Adrian]

I have been a ProPunter member since the beginning of this year, and can vouch for the Super Special results shown on the ProPunter site with a strike rate of >50%, and have been betting these regularly each week. I have focussed on the Super Special bets looking for a regular return on outlay, and while there are only on average a couple of Super Special selections each week, I have been using the IAS service to get Top Fluctuation odds on win betting ProPunter's selections including Confectioner at $7.00, and last week Mr Lofty at $5.00.
The Super specials have also included a number of other winners at around $3.00 which have won really easily (eg Beautiful Gem when it won by 5 lengths a couple of weeks ago). Using these Specials combined with ProPunter's additional selections in these races has also provided a few big Trifecta and Quinella collects for minimal outlay.

Last week, ProPunter also rated the four Sydney races for the Jackpot Quadrella on the Victorian tote. This was a pretty easy get from the ratings given, with two top picks winning in races 4 and 7 and the winners of races 6 and 8 being in the top few selections. It was definitely worth
my time in taking a trip to the local TAB.

I joined up with IAS earlier in the year and got a 10% bonus on my initial deposit by making reference to the deal being offered to ProPunter users (note : you don't need to be a paid up member to get this bonus). Quite a few gaming sites offer up-front incentives to new members, but I think the IAS one is most attractive. Furthermore, since joining, I have
found the service easy to use and the staff on the other end of the phone most friendly and obliging to deal with - Even when withdrawing a significant sum of profits from my account there was no fuss from IAS with the cash coming my way the same day.

I guess that IAS can make these sorts of offers to the public because not everyone has access to winning information, and there are still more mug punters out there (like I used to be) that will continue to lose more than the informed punters win.

[Mr J]

What about the performance of the general ratings? I.e. non super/gold specials?

BTW adrian thanks for the detailed reply.

The question regarding IAS was specifically about IAS offering propunter members bonuses.

I know books make money off bonuses, it's just that why advertise it on a site where it'll attract punters who do have access to winning information.

I can understand a book advertising on a gambling portal or a forum, but on a site that sells winning selections???

I guess alot of the business they get from this site is from visitors and not members of the packages.

[Adrian]

Hi John,
Re Pro-punters other selections :
Gold / Super specials usually only apply to Melb/ Syd meetings where punters can get reasonably fair odds by betting top fluctuation on horses with a number of betting site / bookies such as IAS. (eg. betting to a market with say a 5% margin to the bookie compared to say 15% with the TAB).
For Brisbane/Adelaide there are usually a number of other races (ie not gold/super), where selections are given in order, but not rated. As bookies markets usually have about a 15%-20& margins (TF not available) I do not usually bet on these unless ther is something I particulary like. I have used the Bris / Adelaide selections for trifectas with about break-even success.
Propunter also has long-shot sytems and stable horses which add an additional perspective to selections but I can't say that I have really used these much at all. Maybe when looking for extra selections in Trifectas etc.

I know it must seem strange to pay for a service that only delivers several selections per week, but I have come to the conclusion that its important to carefuly select which races to bet on. Where I used to go to the track and bet on almost every race in every state, and have a lot of "fun" at times it was an expensive hobby. Now I have fun by beating the bookie, and to date have a built a sizable bank through profits that would see me having fun with IAS's money for some time yet.

P.S. - I think your conclusion re IAS using Propunter because of the average punter taking advantage of the offer, rather than only propunter members is pretty astute. I know that Propunter has had to announce that they will be placing limits on memberships soon - I think that this is because if too many people ahd the same infomation and bet with IAS then the profitable odds would be diminished.

[Mr J]

Thanks for the reply.

I'm experienced when it comes to sportsbetting, but don't know anything about the horses. I'd stick to the specials until I've learnt enough to make use of the other info.

Where to bet is a biggie for me, the TABs are horrible on everything, and I mainly use offshore books (so I don't know what aussie books cover racing & are competitive). How about betfair?

"As bookies markets usually have about a 15%-20& margins"

Are you talking just the TABs or bookies in general (on horse racing)? BTW the TABs aren't bookies, they're thieves.

Is the 105% only available for syd/melb markets?

"I know it must seem strange to pay for a service that only delivers several selections per week"

Not really. 2 bets hitting 50% POT is no worse than 20 hitting 5%. Only difference is with 20 the variance will be lower.

BTW, using the super special and gold special records I got kelly stakes of 13.8% and 2.4% respectively. I was just wondering how you manage your BR.

Also, what sort of betting limits exist at bookies for horse racing? If it's not a problem for me yet it may be pretty soon.

[Adrian]

Firstly, if you are worried about bet sizes, I think that IAS is probably the largest bookie in Australia. I thing that they offer Top Fluctiuation betting with a $5,000 win limit.

Secondly, I don't think that you should be worried about betting TF on the super specials in the Melb/Syd markets at around 105%. The 50% POT on the super specials is based on these TF markets - so it doesn't really matter what % the markets are set at if you are making a long term POT by having superior information. It is worth noting that Propunter not only selects the winners but outrates the bookies. Propunter provides both the top selection and the minimum required odds that the horse should be bet at(ie where value exists). - eg when Confectioner won at $7 it was rated at $2.50, and when Mr Lofty won last week it was rated at $2.00. Not all super specials are rated at below bookie odds, there were a couple of instances where required odds were not reached and the horse lost - (eg. I think Alinghi in the Slipper was rated at around $2ish and hence at TF no bet was made).

Regarding betting strategies, back testing of all super specials would provide a maximum return betting at around 13% of bank, with no reductiuon in stakings. I have not done any testing on the gold specials.

I started with a modest bank and have been betting around 5% of bank on super specials - I think this is pretty safe, and I may progressively reduce this to around 2%-3% once my bank doubles again (ie maintain same $ bet size). Perhaps a second bank could bet at say 10% but this is pretty risky in the long term - ie high probability of wipe out.

I am not interested in the sportsbetting - too easy to be biased. I generally rely on propunter selections and excercise very little discression - eg I will have my main bet straight up to win at TF , and then have some minor side bets in the multiples. Hence I don't thinmk that you really need to know too much about the horses to be a winner - propunter gives you all the required information without you needing to make judgements yourself. If I was still making judgements on what i should be betting on I would probably still be losing or break even at best.


I hope all this helps.
Propunter is public with its records and members can testify to this - where else do you see a rating service advertise its results on an equal staking method ?
I know that it seems too good to be true, but I have the cash in my IAS account and records for the past few months to prove that so far propunter has certainly deliverred.

All the best with your punting . . .

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: adrian on 2004-06-10 19:50 ]</font>

[Mr J]

"I know that it seems too good to be true"

I trust ozmium. They've provided me great services for tennis and MLB I have no reason to think they'd provide anything less for horse racing.

"I am not interested in the sportsbetting - too easy to be biased"

Not if you can approach it in a professional manner, which most people can't :wink: All my plays come from other cappers or my computer models so there's no way for me to be biased.

"Perhaps a second bank could bet at say 10% but this is pretty risky in the long term - ie high probability of wipe out."

Depends what the longterm edge of Super Specials are. If they were to keep netting 50% winnings and 50% POT a 10% stake is justified. 5% on Super Specials is VERY safe. This is assuming you resize very reguarly.

"Regarding betting strategies, back testing of all super specials would provide a maximum return betting at around 13% of bank, with no reductiuon in stakings. I have not done any testing on the gold specials."

Yep 13.8. That's Full Kelly. 50%POT over 80 picks is also a statistically significant sample.

"Firstly, if you are worried about bet sizes, I think that IAS is probably the largest bookie in Australia. I thing that they offer Top Fluctiuation betting with a $5,000 win limit."

Are there many other books that offer competitive odds? If so I could also just spread my stake over several books.

[Adrian]

There are plenty of online bookies if you were needing to spread your bets.
It's good to hear that you are having sucess with other Ozmium products - I have looked at the smartgambler sites before and think that the horse racing package offers the best returns ie. POT. The superspecials have maintained 40% to 50+% POT since I started using them.

Don't worry about trying to join in time for tomorrows races as Propunter is refraining from making any selections on this public holiday weekend race meeting - results on weekends such as this are typically dodgey.

I won't be betting this weekend like I have in the past and am now happy to refrain from the big meeting races where the bookies normally clean up with the mug punters . . . .but not me anymore !!

[Mr J]

"that the horse racing package offers the best returns ie. POT."

I swear it's like you just baited me...

POT isn't everything. More bets with a lower POT can profit the same amount or more, but with lower variance.

Kelly suggests a 4% unit for MLB. They release around 5-6 bets per day. We'll say 35 bets per week, which would mean turning over 140% of your BR each week. You're making around 6-7% POT a week, or 9.8% of your BR each week.

For the Super Specials, Kelly suggests 13% max. An average of one per week means turning over just 13%, along with 50% POT brings 6.5% growth of your BR each week.

Due to the baseball having many more bets, variance will be less.

This isn't to say the baseball package is more profitable, just that a higher POT is not necessarily more profitable.

When you include the gold specials and other ratings the two packages probally perform in a similiar fashion.

[at the bar]

Mr J

Agree with everything Adrian has said. I've been a member now for 3-4 years and have made profits in each year.

My strategy is to bet 10x suggested stake for super specials and gold specials provided price is available. I also use info provided to take the occasional tri/1st 4, but only if I percieve value within the selections.

I also like the fact that races are carefully selected and not given out in every race for the day.

at the bar

[Adrian]

Hi "At The Bar", good to see that someone else is also profiting (or should I say propheting) from Propunter's Super Specials.

I have also been trialing some different systems re Propunter's selections, and if agreeable would be interested discussing these directly with you offline. If so, please contact Propunter for my phone #, or alternatively leave either your email or phone # with Propunter, and he will be happy to pass on your details so that I can make contact you.

Cheers,
Adrian.