Mr J
8th June 2004, 03:24 AM
Last weekend went 5-1 on NRL and 3-4 on AFL for a total (for posted picks) of 8-5 +2.84 units.
POT is sitting at 21.78% and a strike rate of 61.5%
My goals are to go an average of 4-3 for each sport which would bring just over 12% POT at pinnacle.
6/7 dogs won outright in the NRL on the weekend.
For the AFL, faves/dogs were split 4 each. The game for the AFL I didn't pick was kangaroos vs richmond. The kangaroos was the better line, although not enough value for me to recommend.
I don't doubt whether the system will profit on the NRL (current total for NRL is 43-14, or nearly 1 in 10000). Not sure how it will do on the AFL though, hopefully last weekend will is not an indication of the rounds to come.
My system uses home advantage, away performance, travel, h2h and offensive/defensive ratings. It is relatively simple, and doesn't need many stats. It is exactly the same system that I used for Super 12s. I developed it for Wk 6 where it tested 24-4 on all previous '04 games. It went 29-11 for all games from round 6 on.
If any of you want to question why my computer model makes a particular pick I'll be happy to explain. Remember it doesn't take things like motivation, injuries, returns, and S.O.O into account.
Sometimes it'll appear spot on or way off. The important thing is that it's correct more often than not.
POT is sitting at 21.78% and a strike rate of 61.5%
My goals are to go an average of 4-3 for each sport which would bring just over 12% POT at pinnacle.
6/7 dogs won outright in the NRL on the weekend.
For the AFL, faves/dogs were split 4 each. The game for the AFL I didn't pick was kangaroos vs richmond. The kangaroos was the better line, although not enough value for me to recommend.
I don't doubt whether the system will profit on the NRL (current total for NRL is 43-14, or nearly 1 in 10000). Not sure how it will do on the AFL though, hopefully last weekend will is not an indication of the rounds to come.
My system uses home advantage, away performance, travel, h2h and offensive/defensive ratings. It is relatively simple, and doesn't need many stats. It is exactly the same system that I used for Super 12s. I developed it for Wk 6 where it tested 24-4 on all previous '04 games. It went 29-11 for all games from round 6 on.
If any of you want to question why my computer model makes a particular pick I'll be happy to explain. Remember it doesn't take things like motivation, injuries, returns, and S.O.O into account.
Sometimes it'll appear spot on or way off. The important thing is that it's correct more often than not.