AFL r12

[goldmember]

CARLTON v HAWTHORN

Carlton have lost their last 5 games against hawthorn, with this game being the 1st played between them at docklands.

last 4 games:
R17 2001 HAWTHORN 96-93 @ M.C.G
R 8 2002 HAWTHORN 89-80 @ M.C.G
R 6 2003 HAWTHORN 74-63 @ OPTUS OVAL
R21 2003 HAWTHORN 138-64 @ M.C.G

W/BULLDOGS v ST KILDA

This is the 1st time these teams have met at the M.C.G since 1961,[with stkilda winning 69-60].

last 4 games:
R16 2001 W/BULLDOGS 112-78 @ DOCKLANDS
R12 2002 W/BULLDOGS 133-86 @ DOCKLANDS
R 6 2003 ST KILDA 100-85 @ DOCKLANDS
R21 2003 ST KILDA 95-30 @ YORK PK TAS.


ESSENDON v BRIS LIONS

Essendon have won 6/11 against the lions, losing 5 straight before winning their last clash, both have 1 win each at docklands.

last 4 games:
R 3 2002 BRIS LIONS 117-67 @ GABBA
R18 2002 BRIS LIONS 108-71 @ DOCKLANDS
R 1 2003 BRIS LIONS 104-61 @ GABBA
R16 2003 ESSENDON 94-86 @ DOCKLANDS

WEST COAST v ADELAIDE

W/coast have won 6/8 at subiaco against the crows,but but only 1 of the last 6 played.

last 4 games:
R13 2002 W/COAST 135-117 @ SUBIACO
R 4 2003 ADELAIDE 106-73 @ AAMI STADIUM
R19 2003 ADELAIDE 91-67 @ SUBIACO
E/F 2003 ADELAIDE 113-57 @ AAMI STADIUM

PORT ADELAIDE v SWANS

Port have won 4/10 against the swans, with both teams winning 2 each at AAMI stadium in 4 encounters there.

last 4 games:
R11 2001 SWANS 125-78 @ S.C.G
R15 2002 PT ADEL 94-92 @ S.C.G
R13 2003 PT ADEL 99-60 @ AAMI STADIUM
Q/F 2003 SWANS 100-88 @ AAMI STADIUM

GEELONG v KANGAROOS

Geelong have won 1 of their last 9 games against the kangaroos and have lost their last 3 at skilled stadium to them.

last 4 games:
R 3 2002 GEELONG 75-67 @ DOCKLANDS
R18 2002 KANGAROOS 115-51 @ SKILLED STADIUM
R 2 2003 KANGAROOS 94-71 @ SKILLED STADIUM
R17 2003 KANGAROOS 104-86 @ MANUKA OVAL

RICHMOND v FREEMANTLE

Richmond have won 9/14 against the dockers, and all 4 played at the M.C.G

last 4 games:
R 4 2002 FREEMANTLE 138-72 @ SUBIACO
R19 2002 RICHMOND 122-72 @ M.C.G
R 3 2003 RICHMOND 94-46 @ M.C.G
R18 2003 FREEMANTLE 104-81 @ SUBIACO

MELBOURNE v COLLINGWOOD

The demons and magpies have won 3 each in their last 6 games at the m.c.g

last 4 games:
R14 2000 MELBOURNE 143-78 @ M.C.G
R11 2001 COLLINGWOOD 134-57 @ M.C.G
R11 2002 COLLINGWOOD 126-75 @ M.C.G
R11 2003 COLLINGWOOD 133-77 @ M.C.G



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-06-09 14:20 ]</font>

[sportznut]

Hmmm, those stats in the Geelong/Kangaroos game are interesting. I've got Geelong winning, but maybe I should have a rethink. :???:

It's a tricky round this week, because Adelaide also have a good record in Perth.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-06-09 14:58 ]</font>

[goldmember]

sportz, woud you say geelong is in better form than the roos or about the same

[MyHatMyCoat]

Geelong for me. In far better form overall.

[goldmember]

Think the lions might win also, as essendon played port,st kilda in R1,2 and were beaten easily and the only team of note they have played since then, was the swans, and they were lucky to win. As for bris, they played the swans in R1 and beat them, 1pt loss to st kilda[ blind umpire]and their last 2, melb and port have been easy wins. They are beating teams hire up on the ladder, essendon is in form against lower placed teams, so my way of thinking, lions to win, I might be wrong, but i hope i'm not.

[sportznut]

I think Geelong is in better form and are also probably a better team, but those stats are VERY impressive for the Kangaroos.

[goldmember]

so are richmonds , but would you back them against freemantle?

[moeee]

On 2004-06-09 15:39, goldmember wrote:
so are richmonds , but would you back them against freemantle?


Gee,you make a pretty strong case right there to give the betting game away.What stats should you in fact use to make the selection?
On those statistics,my prices need to be completely reversed.
Similar with the Geelong game.I have the Cats 5 points better than the Roos at the moment.
My guts told me to give the Cats a 7 point home advantage.Surely your stats aren't telling me to give the Roos the advantage.
Maybe the advantage should be zero.

I think we all need to analyze where we went wrong,after the event,rather than celebrating where we went right.

[sportznut]

I certainly don't think Fremantle are any specials. If you look on the other thread, you'll notice that my ratings have actually picked a draw in that game. While I don't honestly expect that to happen, I do think it might be close. If Richmond are given any sort of points start, I might back them.

[goldmember]

I know it was against ESSENDON, but freemantle's 1st half was, according to one commentator on the radio "rubbish" but i couldn't pick richmond, although remember earlier in the year they copped 4 floggings in a row, then beat hawthorn,swans and w/bulldogs. SO I HAVEN'T GOT A CLUE

[moeee]

On 2004-06-09 15:55, sportznut wrote:
I certainly don't think Fremantle are any specials. If you look on the other thread, you'll notice that my ratings have actually picked a draw in that game. While I don't honestly expect that to happen, I do think it might be close. If Richmond are given any sort of points start, I might back them.


NOW I'm starting to see a chopping block.(Insert smiley face here.)

I suggest you take a look at Goldmembers Banned List and reconsider.
I remember back in the seventies,there was a horse called "Like A Tiger".It used to place in WFA races and got the title of the best maiden performer in Australia.
Never bet maidens to win.
Not that Richmond are maidens,but I think they are way out of their class this time.
Of course,you said with the points in,so all that I've written don't apply.But stuffed if I'm rubbing out all that effort.
All those who think Richmond should be backed to win NOTE the above.

[goldmember]

Moeee, sometimes i look past the stats and go on what i think and what i see. Do you think stats can be misleading sometimes ? I know if you go by the stats that are there it gets you thinking[ sometimes fore the worse]I suppose its up to each persons own view on how you use them.

[sportznut]

Well, Richmond are basically on my banned list too. However, if they receive a points start on TAB Sportsbet, then they become a selection for my Home Dogs system. One of the things about using systems successfully is that you back all the selections no matter what your personal opinions are.

This IS Richmond though, so I would probably have only half my normal bet! :smile:

[moeee]

My selection system is mainly mechanical.
It relies on past performances going back 28 matches.(Why 28? Why not).
I did toy with Home and Away advantages for a while but couldn't get it to work.So I just guesstimate now.
Spin doctors can make you believe anything with their stats.
Richmond stats say they have an easy win this weekend.No way!.There must be something wrong here.I'm sure upon closer examination,Fremantle must come up as the favoured team.
I'll be back.

[Floydyboy]

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Floydyboy on 2004-06-09 23:07 ]</font>

[moeee]

One of the things about using systems successfully is that you back all the selections no matter what your personal opinions are.

I'm a systems man too.And I think the time to review the rules is when a selection is thrown up that doesn't make sense.And definately when it doesn't make sense and runs way down the track.

For example my bonus for home advantage,I sort of pull out of my a--e.
If my suspicions are right,Sportznut,your system seems to bias the recent head to head results.
Leave an egg out of the fridge long enough and it will go off.How far back should you go to find useful data ?
Noticed Goldmembers analysis of Essendons' form.Great job he did.You know,I'm prepared for a blowout to the lions here.
By the way Goldmember,only 1 "e" before the "m" in Fremantle.
And also,how did you end up investing in the St.Kilda/Swans game last Sunday ?

[Floydyboy]

Apostrophe before the S in Essendon's

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Floydyboy on 2004-06-09 16:55 ]</font>

[moeee]

On 2004-06-09 16:54, Floydyboy wrote:
Apostrophe before the S in Essendon's

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Floydyboy on 2004-06-09 16:55 ]</font>


"ARE YOU TALKIN TO ME"

[sportznut]

Well, actually my ratings are mainly skewed in favour of home ground advantage, but I do take H2H into account. I've actually rated Fremantle a 20 point better team than Richmond this week, but I penalised them 20 points for playing in Melbourne, so that's how I ended up with a draw for that game. I also penalised the Lions 20 points for playing Essendon in Melbourne, and that's why my ratings pick the Bombers in that game. On the other hand, Adelaide has a good record in Perth, so I've only penalised the Crows 10 points.

By the way, I only use these ratings as a guide. They are by no means infallible and I wouldn't be surprised if they end up being way off the mark this week.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-06-09 17:19 ]</font>

[moeee]

Well I am much more conservative than you,Sportznut in my travelling bonusses.
I went only 11 points Fremantle,and 6 points Brisbane.
Don't you smell something fishy when the tip is Essendon to beat Brisbane ?
Like I said,I just pulled a figure out of my head,and came up with 6 penalty points for Brisbane.
Don't want to steal your secrets,but if your willing to give them away,how did you come up with the 20 for Brisbane please.
The 20 for Fremantle,I can understand.

[moeee]

Floydyboy's form is the one to follow.
Apologies extended.

[sportznut]

It's no real secret at all. I believe in making these things as simple as possible. Therefore, I only have 3 different penalties for playing away - 5,10 and 20 points. If a team has to travel interstate, I usually impose a 20 point penalty, but I do sometimes adjust that according to the records of the teams involved. For example, both Adelaide teams have a good record in Perth, so I only penalise them 10 points. If Essendon were playing at the Gabba this week, I would penalise them 20 points thus predicting a 28 point win for Brisbane.

By the way, as a Lions fan, I hope that I'm wrong and you're right about their game.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-06-10 07:42 ]</font>

[moeee]

For what its worth here are my current ratings for AFL.

St.Kilda 132
Brisbane 115
Essendon 106
Melbourne 104
Geelong 102
Sydney 99
Fremantle 99
Port.Adel 98
Kangaroos 97
Adelaide 95
West Coast 86
Colli'wood 85
Carlton 73
Bulldogs 70
Hawthorn 69
Richmond 64

[goldmember]

NO good on the swans game, had st kilda 1-39, they were gone after the 1st quarter, even though they got within 1 pt of the swans they were always chasing.

[goldmember]

Need advice from very keen watchers of afl, [i didn't take much notice before],what is the more likely 1st stoppage in play a ball up or free kick, i think a mark would be less likely, any thoughts are welcome.

thanks

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-06-11 15:33 ]</font>

[Mr J]

"Therefore, I only have 3 different penalties for playing away - 5,10 and 20 points."

You don't think it's dangerous to be that casual? My system isn't that complicated but all the ratings and final score go down to the 100ths. That way I know exactly who to pick in the tight ones. I know for sure that if I rounded to only the nearest point for each rating, I wouldn't know whether to pick the bombers or the lions.

I look at how individual teams travel, but they don't necessarily get a penalty. Some actually deserve bonuses :wink:


BTW sportz, have 2 questions for you. How much is each point worth in the AFL? Exactly how much is each point with in the NRL?

I'm talking as in each point is worth say 10 cents or how much it affects win%.

NRL seems to be worth around 2.4% to 2.6% ????(i.e. a team with a 1 point start should be priced 1.91).

AFL worth 0.6% to 0.8%??? AFL scorelines seem to be 3-4x larger.

Essendon probally shouldn't have been a play. Even though my system says there's a little value it's not enough to warrant a bet.

[Mr J]

Well we were all spot on for friday, the 27.5 too much for the blues and st george winning comfortably.

[sportznut]

Mr J,

I guess your system is purely mechanical, so you have to be very precise. On the other hand, my ratings are based quite a bit on personal opinion and I like to keep things as simple as possible. I could get all technical and give lots of different penalties and bonuses, but I'd probably just end up confusing things.

I think you're probably about right with your estimate. I know that a point is worth about 2.5% in League and Union, but I hadn't really had a look at the AFL. At a guess though, I'd say maybe about 0.7%. Moeee actually has a formula for working out the odds based on a predicted margin. Maybe he can help you in some way.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-06-11 23:57 ]</font>

[beberrycareful]

[quote]
On 2004-06-09 13:59, goldmember wrote:
CARLTON v HAWTHORN

Carlton have lost their last 5 games against hawthorn, with this game being the 1st played between them at docklands.

last 4 games:
R17 2001 HAWTHORN 96-93 @ M.C.G
R 8 2002 HAWTHORN 89-80 @ M.C.G
R 6 2003 HAWTHORN 74-63 @ OPTUS OVAL
R21 2003 HAWTHORN 138-64 @ M.C.G
/[quote]

Historical stats are worth a review but it’s current stats and circumstances that generally shape the outcome.

[Mr J]

You're right, my opinion has no influence on my picks. I like that in a way, means I'm unbiased and it's alot easier to be diciplined. I also don't know much about AFL so my opinions wouldn't be worth anything there anyway :wink:

I have a formula for the prices as well. I type in my predicted spreads, turns them into predicted outcome %, tells you what the breakeven bet is, what the 5% overlay is and what perceived edge your bet has. Also finds the breakeven line according to the bookies. I just need accurate figures as I was estimating 2.5% based on pinnacles numbers.

E.g. St george. My predicted spread was St George -2.66. If each point was worth 2.5%, then that'd give StG a 56.65% chance. At 56.7% chance, the fair price is roughly 1.77. My 5% buffer then says to take any price 1.85 or above. I got 2.02 and won :wink:

Wouldn't mind comparing to Moes to see if I have any errors.

[moeee]

If you race off to Sportodds website,you will find,what Floydyboy calls roll-your-own odds.
If you analyse these you will come up with a formula or graph of converting margins to prices.

I use a formula to do same.
It is K^M+1

where K=0.955
and M= margin

So for example
if you think Essendon can beat Brisbane by 12 points

First do the power part
0.955 to the power of 12 equals 0.575
Then add plus 1 equals 1.575
Rounding off gives an acceptable price of $1.58
Prediction of a draw becomes $2
A 1 point margin becomes $1.95 for the favourite and $2.05 for the underdog.

Cheers Mo.

[sportznut]

Looks like the Saints are struggling.

[sportzfan]

The Western Bulldogs had all the answers. Fulltime 103 - 80. Are the wheels falling off SK?

_________________


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportzfan on 2004-06-12 16:45 ]</font>

[goldmember]

they cant beat the bulldogs at the m.c.g, hoodoo still there?

[goldmember]

I watched the game, and when i don't have a bet i go for the underdog,it was 9 goals to 3 in the 2nd half and like last week in sydney the couldn't finish it off, they have a few injuries too coming out of the game, couple of weeks ago people were talking about them going undefeated, now there looking at 3 losses on the trot, is it possible, like i said before they aint no arsenal.

[moeee]

3 on the trot.
Hawthorn next week.DON'T THINK SO.

[sportznut]

Goldmember,

I would have liked to watch the match, but once again we had the ridiculous situation of there being no AFL on free-to-air TV on the Saturday afternoon of the long weekend.

[goldmember]

Moeee, didnt look at the draw for next week, i was just talking literally after the loss, but a it is hawthorn, so they are safe, also are you still backing the saints to win the flag every week.

[moeee]

On 2004-06-13 09:54, goldmember wrote:
Moeee, didnt look at the draw for next week, i was just talking literally after the loss, but a it is hawthorn, so they are safe, also are you still backing the saints to win the flag every week.


I put my tips in somewhere in this forum.
My system says to back the events with the highest overlays.And limit the bets to 3.
Well this week it came out as Adelaide with 20 points in and Fremantle straight out.
Still think the Saints are value,but kept off them at the $2.90.
I don't think a win next time will influence their premiership price so I might get back on after the Hawthorn game.
I've seen what they are capable of,but it sure doesn't look good at the moment.
What percentage did they say it was above the shoulders?
You don't need brains to be a footballer,but you sure do need motivation.

[moeee]

On 2004-06-09 16:49, moeee wrote:

Noticed Goldmembers analysis of Essendons' form.Great job he did.You know,I'm prepared for a blowout to the lions here.



ANALYSE THAT!