AFL Round 13 Predictions

FRIDAY JUNE 18 AEST
St Kilda vs Hawthorn
Telstra Dome 7:40 PM AEST

SATURDAY JUNE 19 AEST
Geelong vs Brisbane Lions
Skilled Stadium 2:10 PM AEST

Richmond vs Carlton
Telstra Dome 7:10 PM AEST

Fremantle vs Port Adelaide
Subiaco Oval 5:40 PM AWST

SUNDAY JUNE 20 AEST
Kangaroos vs West Coast Eagles
Manuka Oval 1:10 PM AEST

Essendon vs Melbourne
MCG 2:10 PM AEST

Adelaide vs Western Bulldogs
AAMI Stadium 2:10 PM ACST

SATURDAY JUNE 26 AEST
Sydney Swans vs Collingwood
Telstra Stadium 7:20 PM AEST

[goldmember]

Just looking ahead to the next round [R14] why would st kilda play port adelaide in tasmania, i know hawthorn plays a few there, but why the saints?

[sportzfan]

The St Kilda Football Club has been committed to promoting AFL in Tasmania for some time.

They have a rep in Tas to manage and coordinate the activities of the St Kilda Football Club in Tasmania.

They have a partnership with The Asthma Foundation of Tasmania.

They conduct a Community Camp in Tas on an annual basis.

They are involved in the Tasmania Community Club (AFL) Game Development Program.

etc etc

[goldmember]

Thanks sports fan, wasn't sure, i am looking at the records of hawthorn 5/6 and the saints 1/2 at york park, maybe its lucky they are not playing this game there[i know the draw was done before the season started]interesting though?

St Kilda
Brisbane
Carlton
Fremantle
Kangaroos
Melbourne
Adelaide
Sydney

[beberrycareful]

St Kilda
Geelong
Carlton
Port Adelaide
Kangaroos
Essendon
Adelaide
Collingwood

[Floydyboy]

ST KILDA-
Theyve filled the bookies coffers for the last 2weeks.. no hat-trick here

LIONS
On the road but on a roll

RICHMOND
Carlton/Richmond ? Richmond/Carlton ? Heads /Tails? -- Heads
PORT
Port at the graveyard

KANGAROOS
The weather will be too cold for the Eagles in the ACT...and the Roos will be too hot

MELBOURNE
More coin tossing --Tails again

ADELAIDE
Only cos theyre at home and Ive picked em the last 2 weeks

SWANS
But not by much





<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Floydyboy on 2004-06-18 10:03 ]</font>

[sportznut]

How totally ridiculous that Collingwood and Sydney get an entire weekend to themselves.

Anyway, there are some really tough games to pick this round. My early ratings are like this:
St Kilda 129 Hawthorn 77
Geelong 100 Brisbane 114
Richmond 91 Carlton 95
Fremantle 98 Port Adel 104
Kangaroos 100 West Coast 90
Essendon 108 Melbourne 116
Adelaide 94 W.Bulldogs 84
Sydney 109 Collingwood 87

Surely St Kilda will bounce back this week?

[moeee]

Am strongly considering taking St.Kilda at 60+.And the $3.50 the premiership is value as well.

Sportznut,I strongly urge you to look at your penalty for Brisbane when they play away.20 points is much too harsh.
When you came up with Essendon as a selection,that was the reason.
At least when they travel to Victoria anyway.

[sportznut]

Well, I've only penalised them 10 points this week because they have a good record at Geelong.

When it comes to penalties, I guess 20 points IS probably too much against the victorian teams, but I actually think 20 points may not be enough when they play in Perth. I am very comfortable betting against Brisbane when they go over there!

It's wierd. I'm a Brisbane Lions fan, but I'm always more pessimistic about their chances than non-lions fans.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-06-15 19:11 ]</font>

[moeee]

On 2004-06-14 12:24, sportzfan wrote:
The St Kilda Football Club has been committed to promoting AFL in Tasmania for some time.

They have a rep in Tas to manage and coordinate the activities of the St Kilda Football Club in Tasmania.

They have a partnership with The Asthma Foundation of Tasmania.

They conduct a Community Camp in Tas on an annual basis.

They are involved in the Tasmania Community Club (AFL) Game Development Program.

etc etc



You must have 2 heads to fit that much knowledge in.

[rabbitz]

i am thinking about a multi with pick your starts,looking specifically at brisbane-geelong and kangaroos-west coast
with brisbane and kangaroos both winning and giving start.
current starts are brisbane -21.5
and kangaroos -10.5
what does anyone think
cheers

can somebody please give an analysis and reason for prediction of these matches...

Richmond - Carlton
Essendon - Melbourne
Fremantle - Port

Thank you.

[Floydyboy]

I was looking at......................... Saints Bris Roos and Port on the line with the given starts .....

[rabbitz]

Floydyboy,can"t come at port even though they
were impressive last week

[Mr J]

My bets.

Hawthorn, +42.5, 1.92
Geelong, +20.5, 1.95
Richmond, 2.12
Fremantle, -3.5, 1.93
Essendon, 2.01
Adelaide, -11.5, 1.93

My system doesn't see value in the Kang-WC match. Hopefully more action will come on the roos and create value for the WC.

Are you saying that you're betting on Hawthorn to beat St Kilda? I see no logic in that, if you are.

[moeee]

On 2004-06-17 15:52, rabbitz wrote:

current starts are brisbane -21.5
and kangaroos -10.5
what does anyone think
cheers



Geelong has not copped too many hidings this year.
Scarlett will be all-Australian fullback this year for sure.
21 points,won't be easy.I suggest you reconsider this one.

The kangaroos are expecting to play finals footy this year.
Need a big win this week and I expect them to deliver in a shootout match.West Coast just won't kick a high enough score.

[sportznut]

Primo,

Mr J isn't betting on Hawthorn outright. He's betting on them with 42.5 points start.

I understand now.

Also, I'm changing my prediction of Fremantle to Port Adelaide. Does anybody think Port will lose? They have a great record.

[Mr J]

As you can see Primo by my bet of Fremantle -3.5, I think port will lose :wink:

Records aren't everything.

I see, but don't you think -3.5 is a bit close to call?

[goldmember]

If fremantle can get going early they will be hard to beat, but their 1st half in recent games has been pedestrian, how could a team not score a single point in the 1st quarter? and that was against richmond!, if they dont start quicker port will have a training session, DESI whats going on with them.

The only two matches I'm unsure about are Fremantle-Port and Richmond-Carlton.

If Port and Carlton to win I think I will be in for a good week, as far as multi-betting is concerned.

[goldmember]

Primo, if i HAD to pick in those 2 games i would go port and carlton

[Mr J]

Primo, I have fremantle by a few more.

I feel pretty hard done by with st kilda vs hawthorn.

30 mins into the match hawthorn is leading something like 44-36, and then st kilda manages to put 90 points on the board vs 10 for hawthorn. Hawthorn must've been playing like schoolboys.

I really hope Fremantle loses, more people are predicting Port Adelaide but I have a feeling Fremantle can win which is not comforting.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: primo on 2004-06-18 22:24 ]</font>

[sportznut]

The Hawks were actually leading 32-13 at one stage!!! Then the Saints just ran riot.

[moeee]

Last one to bed,first to rise.
Must be an afternoon nap there Sportznut.

Am I the only one to notice similarities between what St.Kilda done last night and what Brisbane done last week.
Bring on September.

[goldmember]

THe only similarity was the winning margin, but thats where it ends , big difference in the opposition, hawthorn to essendon

[goldmember]

signing off to watch the geelong- lions game:
lions are specials!! by 25 pts

cheers

[sportznut]

Wish I was as confident about their chances.

[sportzfan]

Your wish is granted :smile:

[moeee]

Like Rex Hunt says Goldmember.
You can only catch the fish that are there.

The Saints are back.

[sportznut]

Well, I backed Geelong with the points start and that was never really in doubt. This is a damn good Geelong team and I personally wasn't the least bit surprised by the result.

[moeee]

Gee Sportznut.
Your such a loyal Lions fans.Not.

What swayed it for you.Did you go back to the 20 point penalty for travelling ?

[sportznut]

I explained it on another thread. Geelong were a selection for my home dog system and that's why I backed them, pure and simple. I did actually think they had a good chance today though.

Personally, I hardly ever back the Lions, and I don't consider that being disloyal or anything. Think about it. If you bet on your own team and they lose you're doubly disappointed. That's why I don't often back them.

[beberrycareful]

Took them outright :smile:

I can't believe how unlucky I have been this week.

[Mr J]

Well for the 2nd night in a row an AFL team I picked blows a solid early lead.

Fremantle kept me from going 4-1 today.

What is ironic is that if I included h2h for its normal strength, my system would've picked Port. I played down the h2h strength simply because it was so one-sided (and I don't believe h2h should have that amount of inluence on a pick). Ah well. Maybe tomorrow will go 5-1.

[sportznut]

On 2004-06-19 22:55, Mr J wrote:
I played down the h2h strength simply because it was so one-sided (and I don't believe h2h should have that amount of inluence on a pick).


Why not? Surely, it should give you more confidence to back a team with such a good record at the ground and against this opposition. Then again, I guess if you had taken H2H more into account, you probably wouldn't have backed Geelong. Is that right?

Anyway, that now makes 8 wins from 11 matches at Subiaco for Port Adelaide, including 4 from 4 against the Dockers. I'm thinking of calling it a 'neutral' venue for Port from now on.

Speaking of good away records, here's a wierd one. In the NRL, Brisbane have won 11 of their last 12 games at Parramatta, but Parramatta have won 7 of their last 9 games in Brisbane. Work that out!!!


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-06-20 08:23 ]</font>

[moeee]

On 2004-06-19 20:36, primo wrote:
I can't believe how unlucky I have been this week.


What goes around,comes around.

[moeee]

On 2004-06-19 22:55, Mr J wrote:
Well for the 2nd night in a row an AFL team I picked blows a solid early lead.

Fremantle kept me from going 4-1 today.




Hawthorn got hammered and Richmond went down as well.How do you figure 4-1.
Well done with Geelong.

And a big cheerio to Beberrycareful.Killing 'em son.Might make you my new hero if you keep this up.

[Mr J]

Moe, 4-1 on saturday not for the wkend...

League went 2-0, afl went 1-2.

Still yesterday was a good day overall and makes up for friday (my largest loss in day so far).

brisbane cost me $75

my pick 6..

brisbane-port-melbourne-kangaroos-adelaide-carlton

my worst betting week ever.

[moeee]

On 2004-06-20 16:00, primo wrote:
brisbane cost me $75

my pick 6..

brisbane-port-melbourne-kangaroos-adelaide-carlton

my worst betting week ever.


Isn't Adelaide and Melbourne still playing or am I caught in a time warp?

Melbourne won.

Adelaide is still playing but in the final quarter dominating.

I think it's safe to assume they will win.

[Mr J]

If it makes you feel any better primo I lost over 10k on AFL/NRL this weekend.

Mr J how could you lose so much money in one weekend?

I had no idea anyone was betting that big around here.

You'll make that money back, right?

[moeee]

On 2004-06-20 17:22, Mr J wrote:

I lost over 10k on AFL/NRL this weekend.



I thought you thought your strike rate over the weekend was going well.

Just goes to show you need to put more on the winners and less on the losers.
Well I collected the princely sum of $61.60 for my $20 on Saints -43.5 into Crows straight out.
First collect for the year,but jump on boys.Like I said Heed for whom the bell tolls.And finally the god of probabilities is playing my song.

And is it true that Foxtel were in fact playing a delayed telecast of the Crows match into Melbourne.

[rabbitz]

MOOEEEE and others
The treble arrived
st george -5.5
kangaroos-11.5
melbourne demons
hooray
and the other one still going although its obscure france have to beat switzerland by 2+
goals

[sportznut]

Well, in the AFL, I had 3 bets this week:
Geelong(+19.5) vs Brisbane (2 units @ 1.85)
Port Adel to beat Fremantle (2 units @ 1.95)
Double - Kangaroos/Adelaide (1 unit @ 2.40)

By the way Primo, I worked out that if you had simply put $5 on all of those 6 teams to win instead of putting on a pick-6, you would have ended up with a profit of around $14 for the weekend. Or similarly, if you had taken 6 doubles, you'd have made around $23 profit. Not a fortune I know, but better than nothing.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-06-20 19:39 ]</font>

[sportznut]

Well done Rabbitz!

[rabbitz]

thanks the 'nutz
i think that it is better to not bet on lions anymore,because on the one hand you want them to win and on the other you get annoyed if they dont cover the start as well
cheers

[sportznut]

Are you talking to me, Primo or punters in general? I almost never bet on the Brisbane Lions, because they're my team and if I bet on them and they lose, I'm disappointed twice!

[beberrycareful]

On 2004-06-20 17:22, Mr J wrote:
If it makes you feel any better primo I lost over 10k on AFL/NRL this weekend.


And I thought the atkins diet was good :smile:

I bet on Italy to beat Denmark and that was triple disappointment...

Italy drew.
I lost my bet.
Totti got 3 match suspension.

[Mr J]

On 2004-06-20 18:39, moeee wrote:
I thought you thought your strike rate over the weekend was going well.


Moe no offence but you really don't like to read my posts in whole...

I said friday was bad. I went 0-2.

I said saturday was unlucky not to be 4-1, it went 3-2.

Sunday was horrible and went 2-4, again things not going my way (warriors).

"Just goes to show you need to put more on the winners and less on the losers."

Sorry but that just doesn't make any sense.

No Primo it isn't that bad at all. My unit size is fairly large. Winners in tennis and MLB actually cut my total losses in half and I made much much more in the previous 10 days.

[moeee]

On 2004-06-20 19:22, rabbitz wrote:
MOOEEEE and others
The treble arrived
st george -5.5
kangaroos-11.5
melbourne demons
hooray



Is this another treble or did you take heed of advice.
I remember there being thoughts of Brisbane at -21.5 in there instead of the Demons.

[moeee]

On 2004-06-20 19:31, sportznut wrote:

By the way Primo, I worked out that if you had simply put $5 on all of those 6 teams to win instead of putting on a pick-6, you would have ended up with a profit of around $14 for the weekend. Or similarly, if you had taken 6 doubles, you'd have made around $23 profit. Not a fortune I know, but better than nothing.




You can't do that Sportznut.I mean,you can but you shouldn't.If you hadda done this or that based on one weeks result can spell doom.
Next week 2 teams go down,he still loses the $5 multi stake.What you propose would then lose even more.
Probabilities Sportznut,are like physics.Most people Know little about them but they are why things happen or don't.

[moeee]

On 2004-06-20 23:17, beberrycareful wrote:

On 2004-06-20 17:22, Mr J wrote:
If it makes you feel any better primo I lost over 10k on AFL/NRL this weekend.


And I thought the atkins diet was good :smile:



Be very careful Beberrycareful.
We all know what happened to Unlucky Phil.

[moeee]

"Just goes to show you need to put more on the winners and less on the losers."



2 winning bets out of 3 can be a losing day if the losing bet was a special and the investment was proportionately large.

[Mr J]

But there's no logic in that moe. To be able to put more money on the winners, you have to know which ones the winners would be. If you knew which would win, then you'd not bet the ones that will lose and get a strikerate of 100%.

What you suggest is impossible.

[moeee]

On 2004-06-21 13:46, Mr J wrote:
But there's no logic in that moe. To be able to put more money on the winners, you have to know which ones the winners would be. If you knew which would win, then you'd not bet the ones that will lose and get a strikerate of 100%.

What you suggest is impossible.


Exactly Mr J.

But do you bet to chances or do you bet level stakes?
I believe you got about 5 winners and 8 losers over the weekend.
40% strike rate sounds good,so how come a losing weekend.

What I'm trying to get across is that maybe the evens Hawthorn at +43.5 was not as much value as the evens Geelong at +20.5
So I would think that Geelomg was worth investing a bit more on.
I realize that AFL is not your forte at the moment,and also I'm talking after the race,but sometimes there is logic underneath all the bullshit.

[beberrycareful]

On 2004-06-21 10:33, moeee wrote:

On 2004-06-20 23:17, beberrycareful wrote:

On 2004-06-20 17:22, Mr J wrote:
If it makes you feel any better primo I lost over 10k on AFL/NRL this weekend.

And I thought the atkins diet was good :smile:

Be very careful Beberrycareful.
We all know what happened to Unlucky Phil.


Oops! Thanks moeee. My attempt at humour. Sorry Mr J. Hope you strike back with a vengeance.

[Mr J]

"My attempt at humour."

I didn't realize it could be taken for anything else??!!?

Moe. I mainly bet against the spread, i.e. line/handicap betting. All bets a roughly even money, give or take 10 cents. Basically I have to pick more than 50% winners to profit.

I now realize what you are saying, ie I should size my bet according to perceived advantage. I don't do this simply because I have no idea how accurate my system is yet, and I don't want to overbet.

The right way to do this is to analyse past bets and see how they have performed in relation to the perceived advantage. Thing is you need a large sample size, which I don't have. I will go back and check it out anyway, see if it suggests anything.

[sportznut]

Yeah, I use 3 different bet sizes, depending on my level of confidence for each bet.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-06-21 18:46 ]</font>

[moeee]

With my puny bankroll compared to yours,not really for me to make decisions for you Mr J.
And you've probably been there done that,however.
Have you considered for example on the Saturday you might have 4 selections,all being at even money.
Instead of investing a grand on each,perhaps 1500,1200,800 and 500 or something similar.
Or better still bet to chances.
If you think Hawthorn might lose by 20 points and can get +43 at evens then back them as though you were getting +23 points on a genuine evens chance.This equates to about a 3's on chance so back them as if they were.
I realize you are still learning the ins and outs of AFL betting,as we all are,and maybe someones got some ideas to share rather than sharing their sorrows and successes.

Cheers Mo.

[Mr J]

Moe I understand what you are saying, it just isn't wise for me to do that at this point. It's not really anything specific to AFL, it's just that I don't have a large enough sample to find out where my advantages lie and how accurate the perceived advantages are.

If I think one team should be +20, and they are +40, you'd think it would warrant a larger bet. Thing is maybe I have that match wrong, which means I'd be overbetting.

Until you can be reasonably sure of the size of your perceived advantages, using different stake sizes is quite dangerous.

Flatbetting at first is always the best way to go. If your system is profitable, then you will profit.

[moeee]

Nice to see you understood everything I was saying Mr J.
I'll endeavour to look more carefully into your posts from now.Sometimes it's the terminology and sometimes blinkers for the first time get in the way.:smile:

Cheers.