NRL Round 15

[sportznut]

Fri 7:30 PM - Sydney Roosters v Newcastle Knights
Sat 5:30 PM - Bulldogs v Canberra Raiders
Sat 7:30 PM - Parramatta Eels v Brisbane Broncos
Sat 7:30 PM - Manly Sea Eagles v South Sydney Rabbitohs
Sun 12:00 PM - NZ Warriors v NQ Cowboys
Sun 2:30 PM - Sharks v Penrith Panthers
Sun 3:00 PM - St George-Illawarra Dragons v Wests Tigers
Storm BYE



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-06-15 16:34 ]</font>

[sportznut]

Depending of course on what happens on Wednesday night, here are my ratings for this week:

Syd Roosters 34 Newcastle 18
Bulldogs 34 Canberra 14
Parramatta 28 Brisbane 26
Manly 26 Souths 16
NZ Warriors 20 NQ Cowboys 26
Sharks 22 Penrith 26
St Geo-Ill 30 Wests 20

[goldmember]

ROOSTERS v KNIGHTS

The roosters have won their last 5 games against the knights, and 5 of the last 7 against them at the S.F.S

last 4 games:
R 2 2003 ROOSTERS 14-10 @ NEWCASTLE
R10 2003 ROOSTERS 36-14 @ S.F.S
FNL 2003 ROOSTERS 36- 8 @ S.F.S
R 6 2004 ROOSTERS 32-22 @ NEWCASTLE

BULLDOGS v RAIDERS [ AT GOSFORD]

The bulldogs have won only 1 of their last 5 clashes with the raiders.The bulldogs have won 2/3 at gosford,2 wins against nthn eagles[losing 30-26 to w/tigers R11 this year]and the raiders have lost all 3 here against the nthn eagles.

last 4 games:
R15 2002 BULLDOGS 46- 6 @ SHOWGROUNDS
R24 2002 RAIDERS 38-34 @ BRUCE STADIUM
R 7 2003 RAIDERS 26-22 @ BRUCE STADIUM
R25 2003 RAIDERS 21-16 @ SHOWGROUNDS


MANLY v SOUTHS

Manly have won 13 of their last 15 games against souths and 7 of the last 8 at brookvale.

last 4 games:
R 5 1999 SOUTHS 28-24 @ BROOKVALE
R25 1999 MANLY 18- 2 @ S.F.S
R 3 2002 SOUTHS 44-20 @ S.F.S [NTHN EAGLES]
R 7 2003 MANLY 28-20 @ BROOKVALE

EELS v BRONCOS

The eels have won 6 of their last 9 against the broncos, but only 1 of the last 7 against them at parramatta stadium.

last 4 games:
FNL 2002 BRONCOS 24-14 @ ANZ STADIUM
R 7 2003 BRONCOS 20-14 @ PARRA STADIUM
R25 2003 EELS 16-14 @ SUNCORP STADIUM
R 2 2004 EELS 26-18 @ SUNCORP STADIUM

WARRIORS v COWBOYS

The warriors have won 10/16 against the cowboys, with 6/8 at ericsson.

last 4 games:
R13 2002 WARRIORS 34- 6 @ ERICSSON
R 6 2003 WARRIORS 30-24 @ ERICSSON
R17 2003 COWBOYS 30-10 @ DAIRY FARMERS
R 9 2004 COWBOYS 16- 8 @ DAIRY FARMERS

SHARKS v PENRITH

The last 8 games at toyota pk between these two have resulted in the sharks 5 wins, penrith 2 wins and 1 draw, overall in the last 8 games they have 4 wins each.

last 4 games:
R19 2001 SHARKS 42-10 @ TOYOTA PK
R 3 2002 SHARKS 18-10 @ TOYOTA PK
R11 2002 PENRITH 24-22 @ PENRITH
R17 2003 PENRITH 20- 0 @ TOYOTA PK

STGEORGE ILLAWARRA v W/TIGERS

Stgeorge ill have won 5/8 against the w/tigers, with this game the first to be played at kogarah between them.At home stgeorge have 1 win and 1 loss to the w/ tigers[ 2 have been double headers at a neutral ground]

last 4 games:
R10 2002 STGEORGE 33-22 @ WOLLONGONG
R20 2002 STGEORGE 42- 8 @ CAMPBELLTOWN
R 1 2003 W/TIGERS 24-20 @ STADIUM AUST.
R 5 2004 STGEORGE 39-10 @ STADIUM AUST.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-06-16 15:16 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-06-18 13:30 ]</font>

[sportznut]

Oops! Forgot that the Bulldogs were playing at Gosford. The rating for that game now becomes:
Bulldogs 32 Canberra 18

[Mr J]

Roosters-Knights 30-18
Bulldogs-Raiders 24-22
Manly-Souths 28-24
Eels-Brisbane 20-22
Warriors-Cowboys 22-20
Cronulla-Penrith 18-22
Dragons-Tigers 24-18

I've rounded all those to the closest even number, so those aren't my exact scores (i.e. I don't have the Warriors by 2, but by 0.86).

My bets are:
Raiders +8.5
Souths +7.5
Warriors 2.10
Tigers +8

Which all disagree with you sportz!!! I might have bets on the other matches if the lines move and my system sees value.

[sportznut]

Mr J,

Although I do ratings on all the games, I usually only have maybe 2 or 3 bets. And when it comes to line betting, I always prefer to back teams receiving the start, not giving it, so I doubt I'll be opposing your bets. It looks like my home dog system will give me one bet this week.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-06-18 11:04 ]</font>

[rabbitz]

i dont like many of the games and think the only good bet is Roosters
So Multi is

Roosters -7.5=$1.53
AllBlacks -7.5=$1.54
Aust -25.5=$1.52
Lions -9.5 =$1.60
Dividend $5.73
And thats it,if it wins I might have a smallbet on Sunday

[goldmember]

Craig Hall has been ruled out of tonights game against the roosters and the word is M. Gidley is unlikely to play, but is so desperate, they will wait until 1 hour before the game to see if he will.

The raiders will be without Joel Monahan and there was another one also,not 100% but i think it is J.Croker.

M.Gidley has just ruled himself out of the game tonight, dont trhink +12.5 will be enough for the knights now.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-06-18 14:25 ]</font>

[goldmember]

C.flannery is being rested by stuart for tonights game.

[Mr J]

Lines for roosters-knights have drifted in a big way.

Knights go from +12.5 1.91 or so to 2.10

I don't see how the roosters could be favoured by so much. Hopefully it's square money by people overrating injuries and recent performance.

[goldmember]

knights will struggle in a bad way , the roosters have the wood on them, the clsest they got to them was 4 pts at near full strength at home , away they are 16 pts worse team. I wouldn't take the 2.10 i think that is under the odds.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-06-18 19:55 ]</font>

[sportznut]

Thanks for the info on Gidley, Goldmember. Helped me with my betting decision tonight.

[Mr J]

Well I was taught a lesson here.

[rabbitz]

Roosters -7.5
I think I was a bit conservative,moeee congrats on saint kilda 60+
I hope you took it.

[sportznut]

Yeah Mr J, Newcastle were always going to struggle tonight, but once Gidley was ruled out, they were simply no hope! I rarely back teams giving away a decent points start, but the Roosters were too good to pass up tonight.

[moeee]

On 2004-06-18 22:17, rabbitz wrote:
Roosters -7.5
I think I was a bit conservative,moeee congrats on saint kilda 60+
I hope you took it.



Yo Rabbitz.
Thanks for that,but no I didn't.
Went down the tote and they had them at about $2.40.
Unfortunately my bank is at the skinny end and I thought I would find another way to invest my $20.
Tell you what though,that gut system thing is a goer.
2 more gut feelings for me are the Cats a chance and the Roos to jump away to a big score.
Quote me later.

Cheers.

[Mr J]

Sportz there is no way a single injury can cause a team to lose like this. The knights must have been terrible.

[goldmember]

To be honest, the knights played a hell of a lot better last night than they did against the cowboys[ that was a woeful effort], plus there wasnt a single injury, they only had 6 top graders in that side of 17, too many youngsters and they were outclassed in every department, i was conservative and bet on the roosters at -20.5 and -24.5, just in case they got tired and stuart rested some players in the last 15 minutes, i didnt want to make any bold predictions on the margin in case i was wrong but i did think they had 40 pts on them.

[goldmember]

Floydyboy, early changes for the weekend:

RAIDERS out J.CROKER, J MONAHAN
in J BULGARELLI, ---

BRONCOS out N.PARFITT, S.KELLY
in S.MINTO, D SMITH

MANLY out J. HOPOATE, J MULLANE
in N. BRADLEY, J.ROBSON

COWBOYS out T. WILLIAMS
in N. SWEENEY

SHARKS out,[1] bickerstaff,kent or beattie
in G.BIRD
PENRITH out C. GOWER

[rabbitz]

Well boys SOUTHS win again over manly 34-30
Maybe just maybe the wooden spoon is for someone else

[Desi]

Rabbitz,
I have been sick these last few weeks and even more so after watching some pretty pathetic team efforts esp that of the Warriors, of whom the majority of players are not of standard and a coach who will lead them to the wooden spoon.

Souths, on the other hand, despite being a little thin on the player list, have shown a lot of guts and determination and have also scored some of the best tries of the season. Good on them!

Betting that the Warriors will be found out even more away from home but I am staying away from them and the Knights...as for St George...they will beat anyone on their day (easily) its just which day?