AFL Round 14 - Predictions

FRIDAY JULY 2 AEST
Essendon vs Kangaroos
Telstra Dome 7:40 PM AEST

SATURDAY JULY 3 AEST
Carlton vs Sydney Swans
Optus Oval 2:10 PM AEST

Collingwood vs Hawthorn
MCG 2:10 PM AEST

Brisbane Lions vs Richmond
Gabba 7:10 PM AEST

West Coast Eagles vs Geelong
Subiaco Oval 5:40 PM AWST

SUNDAY JULY 4 AEST
St Kilda vs Port Adelaide
York Park 1:10 PM AEST

Western Bulldogs vs Fremantle
Telstra Dome 2:10 PM AEST

Adelaide vs Melbourne
AAMI Stadium 2:10 PM ACST

Essendon
Carlton
Collingwood
Brisbane
West Coast
St Kilda
Western Bulldogs
Melbourne

This looks like a great week for betting.

Only matches I feel unsure about are WCE-Geelong and Carlton-Sydney.

[moeee]

Slow down son.
You're making me run.

[sportznut]

Yeah, hold your horses. Round 13's not over yet. :smile:

[sportznut]

Well, for what it's worth, here are my early ratings Primo.

Essendon 110 Kangaroos 93
Carlton 92 Sydney 102
Collingwood 102 Hawthorn 78
Brisbane 136 Richmond 60
West Coast 96 Geelong 106
St Kilda 120 Port Adel 103
W.Bulldogs 91 Fremantle 97
Adelaide 97 Melbourne 109


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-06-22 09:32 ]</font>

[rabbitz]

hello all
I know this is not the right place for this post but i just had to brag about the treble
I picked up as of this morning
St George -11.5
Kangaroos -17.5
France win 2+ goals
DIVIDEND $9.70
Tasty it was
Also found another obscure betting option
A goal scored before 26:59 on the clock
$1.95.Which was a little cream on top
THANKYOU VERY MUCH
Cheers Boys

[moeee]

GO RABBITZ
GO RABBITZ
GO RABBITZ

GO RABBITZ
GO RABBITZ
GO RABBITZ

Two trebles to you Rabbitz.
Well done.Keep on doing what your doing.

I wonder how that Erikson is going.
I think he gave me a virus.:sad:

sorry, I didn't realise these matches were being played next week.

Keep your predictions until next week if you want.

ok start the predicting boys.

except for flodyboy, you're not welcome.

[rabbitz]

Hey teacher leave Floydyboy alone
Hes hungover from celebrating after another big win saturday night

[moeee]

On 2004-06-22 04:26, sportznut wrote:

Essendon 110 Kangaroos 93
Carlton 92 Sydney 102
Collingwood 102 Hawthorn 78
Brisbane 136 Richmond 60
West Coast 96 Geelong 106
St Kilda 120 Port Adel 103
W.Bulldogs 91 Fremantle 97
Adelaide 97 Melbourne 109



I donts knows hows yure doin it but Ise just knows yure doin it.

Stop stealing my selections Sportznut.:smile:

[sportznut]

Are they pretty close to your predictions?

[moeee]

On 2004-06-27 13:32, sportznut wrote:
Are they pretty close to your predictions?


-----------Mo---Sportznut
Fremantle...6......6
Geelong.....9......10
Sydney......8......10
Collingwood.22.....24
Melbourne...8......12
Essendon....8......17
St.Kilda....29.....17
Brisbane....62.....76

Stop peeking


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: moeee on 2004-06-27 18:21 ]</font>

[rabbitz]

colingwood and brisbane with roll your owns
looks like a good double this week.starts undecided but probably collingwood -28.5
and brisbane somewhere in the 40's(only because they take the foot off the accel towards the end
cheers

[sportznut]

Yeah, despite the fact that my ratings suggest Brisbane by 76, I wouldn't be betting on them winning by anything like that.

[moeee]

Wouldn't concern myself with accelerators this week Rabbitz.
Richmond are specials at letting teams get away with the last quarter.
Brisbane by 10 goals.Probably more.

Cheers Mo.

[rabbitz]

well speaking of accelerators moeeee,i've bagged four trebles in the last two weekends,a win on the baseball,a win on the bleeding tennis on ol'xavier malisse @ $2.50 in rd 1.
so having said all that,my bank has increased 7 times after losing a bit for the previous month.And i think its come from being ridulously conservative and grwing the ol'tree one pear at a time

[rabbitz]

well speaking of accelerators moeeee,i've bagged four trebles in the last two weekends,a win on the baseball,a win on the bleeding tennis on ol'xavier malisse @ $2.50 in rd 1.
so having said all that,my bank has increased 7 times after losing a bit for the previous month.And i think its come from being ridulously conservative and grwing the ol'tree one pear at a time

[rabbitz]

stop repeating yourself rabbitz

Brisbane by 60+ points.

[goldmember]

I'll be taking the lions -80.5, after all they did beat essendon by 66 in their last home game and you couldn't say richmond are a better team than them, plus they would want to take it out on someone for letting the game against geelong slip away.
SHOW NO MERCY - KILL THOSE LITTLE MUTHA'S

cheers

[sportznut]

Would I be correct in assuming that you do not have the highest opinion of Richmond. :smile:

[goldmember]

No opinion of them , but i still would be taking -80.5 as the crows beat them by 75 and kangaroos beat them by 74 at telstra dome, port by 78 at aami stadium, the lions at the gabba should at least match that,as they are a better team than the crows and kangaroos !

[moeee]

What Brisbane can do to Richmond is not related to what they did to Essendon.
Give me 66 points start Essendon v Brisbane and I'll catch a plane to get set with you Goldmember.
Thing to always bear in mind is.Do they want to win by 80 points.
Coaches usually rest their best once the game is in the bag.
These blowouts usually occur when the underdog lays down.
Somewhere between 60 and 80.Quote me next week!

Cheers Mo.

[goldmember]

I wouldn't give you 66 start essendon if i had a million dollars, i was saying essendon is SUPPOSEDLY a better team than richmond, but i agree with you it depends if they lay down or not, knowing richmond its on the cards.

[sportznut]

Unlike playing against Essendon, the game this week has no huge importance other than simply getting the 4 points. The Lions tend to lift for really big games. If they played as well this week as they did against Essendon, they would kill Richmond by over 100 points, but I doubt very much that will happen. Far more likely is that they will play just well enough to have a comfortable victory.

[moeee]

One other thing Goldmember.
The game against Geelong did not slip away.
I did not see the game but listened to most of it.
I looked back at my early odds charts and noticed Geelong at 7 to 1 for the eight.
You look through the team and don't find any Buckleys or such.
Beware the cats.They really are a good team.Like a cake.The ingredients on their own don't particularly stand out,but combine them and you have something special.
After 13 rounds I'm putting my head on chopping block.
If they are in front at quarter time,it's no finals for the Eagles this year.
Even if they're not,bringing back the 4 points will still be better than evens.
I think I'm having some sort of a Karma attack.Either that or I'm pissed.

How's your head Floydyboy?

Cheers - Mo.

[goldmember]

Moeee, i know geelong are a good team, i watched most of the game, it was pretty windy then a little rain in the 2nd half, it was tough conditions to play in and what i meant it was a close game until the last quarter, when geelong started to get on top of them and i've noticed when there in that mood down there no team can go with them.

<font=text bold>"How's your head Floydyboy?"

HE is not welcome to comment in here.

[goldmember]

What went on on the weekend with all the swearing, people having a bad day or what?

[moeee]

On 2004-06-28 20:19, goldmember wrote:
Moeee, i know geelong are a good team.What i meant it was a close game until the last quarter, when geelong started to get on top of them and i've noticed when there in that mood down there no team can go with them.


And thats the thing.When a game is there to be won.
Brisbane usually excel at those times but they didn't this time.6-4 the premiership is ridiculous if they can't win the close ones.
I haven't taken my Grand Final quinella yet,but really do have concerns with Brisbane.
Really good,but really over-rated at that price.
After 2 tries Collingwood lost their passion.After 3 wins and 3 years older,how hungry can you be?
I bet on averages and value.Top 2 teams of the ladder win the Premiership most times.

[goldmember]

I agree that 6/4 is too short, i'll be waiting until the end of the home and away season before i bet on finals and doubles with the league, saints look good so far this year but i'll wait until the finals to make up my mind ,3/1 is short also, for your sake i hope they dont choke in the finals like port did for the past 2 years , as they looked good all year long also.

[goldmember]

Channel 9 will not be showing the afl footy show here because of the tennis coverage, could someone please post any late changes to teams, i'm not sure if the afl site makes changes to the teams or not,[the stupid nrl up here doesn't,have to find out my self],as we hardly get any afl news up here, i would appreciate it if someone could if there were any.
Thanks

[rabbitz]

moeeeee
i will stick my neck all the way out and give you a guarantee here in bold print that the brisbane lions will win the premiership this year.I know your not supposed to guarantee anything on this forum but this is going to happen.6/4 is better value than you will get on the day.last year when collingwood were favourites,I think the odds were something like pies$1.80-$1.90,lions around evens maybe 10/9.I know I will get your well rounded feedback on this one.just don't put a mill on it
Cheers

[moeee]

Facts,figures and numbers.
I've been doing this for years and it still don't explain why St.Kilda lost those two games this year.
That intangible thing called the gut feeling is the one.
That's where the value lies.
That's where the roughies come in.
How do you Know if its happening or not.
Its that feeling you have when you rush to tell all about the winner you picked.
Like a warm glow inside.
The Lions are not warming me up somehow Rabbitz.
Can't pick who will take their place,just feel that the Sainters will be playing a different team in the 2004 premiership.

One other thing about this vibe or gut feeling.
If its so strong that you need to invest a large wager on it,then it's not it.
Its a warm glow rather than a fierce heat.

Cheers Mo.

[rabbitz]

Moeeee you are so sensible!

[moeee]

Hey all.I just got another comment on the Vibe.
You ever done that "I knew that was gonna happen" thing.
So easy to pick after the race.
What you do is pretend that a result has occurred.Then you say "I just knew that would happen"
If you believe yourself ,go back 'em in boys.
If it sounds like your bullshitting yourself,try the same statement with a different pretend result.

Mo.

[moeee]

In despaaration I took,amongst others,the following Multi.

St.Kilda -8.5
Fremantle -5.5
Adelaide to win by 40+
$29.20 for $5

Thats it.I'm not going by form no more.
The vibe and the guts are the ones to follow.

Plus I'm not coming on here pissed no more.

[rabbitz]

lions into port adelaide,rd 15 with some start sounds good
cheers

[Mr J]

Moe, nice on the adelaide by 40+ points...shame St Kilda let you down (they did the same to me).

[sportznut]

Just had 2 bets on the AFL this week, Carlton (+17.5) and Adelaide (+7.5), both winners for the Home Dog system.

[Paddy]

Good onya sportznut and well done! :smile:

Got my kicks from backing the bulldogs in the NRL :wink:

[Mr J]

Sportz, out of interest what is the total record for your home dogs in all 3 codes?

[sportznut]

Mr J,

I'm sure you remember how well my system went on S12. It went 14-1, including 11-1 after I posted the rules on here!!! :grin:

I certainly don't expect to end up anywhere near as successful on NRL and AFL, although the AFL is certainly doing pretty well so far. After Round 14 of the AFL, the Home Dog system is at 15-6, and after Round 17 of the NRL, it's 9-7. So, combining all three codes so far this year, it's 38-14. Not bad. :smile:

[moeee]

I have a gut feeling some people here aren't being totally honest about their losing bets.
What do you think Sportznut?

[Mr J]

Yeh sportz, they've hit at an incredible rate. It'd be nice to have a good sample size though, that way we might actually know what they truly hit. Definately a trend the bookies shouldn't be allowing.

This is using you rules as well right (ie no bet if 2 SA/NZ teams, 2 sydney teams etc)?

[sportznut]

Yep. In the S12, I'll bet when two Aussie teams play but not when two NZ or two SA teams meet. In the NRL, there's no bet when two Sydney teams play, and in the AFL, no bet when two Melbourne teams play or in the local derbies. Oh, also no bet when teams give away their home games to the opposition.

There was one tricky one this year. Hawthorn played Fremantle in Tassie. While it wasn't strictly a genuine home game for Hawthorn, it was certainly an away game for Fremantle so I decided to back Hawthorn in that game anyway. Technically, I guess you shouldn't count that one and if you don't, that makes it 14-6 in the AFL this year. The same thing happens this week with Hawthorn playing West Coast at York Park and I'm sure the Hawks will be underdogs in that one. So technically, I guess they shouldn't really be selections, but I'll probably have a small bet on them anyway.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-07-05 17:09 ]</font>

[sportznut]

On 2004-07-05 14:48, moeee wrote:
I have a gut feeling some people here aren't being totally honest about their losing bets.
What do you think Sportznut?


I hope that wasn't directed at me.

Those figures for the Home Dog system are 100% accurate. Anyone who follows the rules and uses TAB Sportsbet for the lines which is what I recommend, would have had the same results. By the way, they aren't the ONLY bets I have on the Football each week, but they are a major part of my betting.

Anyway, here are the results so far:

S12
R1 Brumbies (+8.5) vs Blues WON
R2 Stormers (+3.5) vs Highlanders WON
R3 Reds (+5.5) v Crusaders WON
R4 Reds (+5.5) vs Blues WON
R4 Bulls (+5.5) vs Brumbies WON
R4 Stormers (+6.5) vs Waratahs WON
R5 Bulls (+4.5) vs Waratahs WON
R5 Stormers (+3.5) vs Brumbies LOST
R6 Chiefs (+4.5) vs Waratahs WON
R8 Sharks (+3.5) vs Crusaders WON
R8 Cats (+5.5) vs Chiefs WON
R9 Cats (+9.5) vs Crusaders WON
R10 Waratahs (+4.5) vs Brumbies WON
R12 Chiefs (+6.5) vs Brumbies WON
R12 Reds (+4.5) vs Waratahs WON

AFL
R1 Kangaroos (+6.5) vs Adelaide WON
R1 W.Bulldogs (+9.5) vs West Coast WON
R2 Adelaide (+11.5) vs Brisbane LOST
R3 Essendon (+7.5) vs West Coast WON
R4 Melbourne (+19.5) vs Port Adelaide WON
R4 West Coast (+5.5) vs Brisbane WON
R4 Adelaide (+5.5) vs St Kilda LOST
R5 Richmond (+10.5) vs Adelaide LOST
R5 Carlton (+12.5) vs West Coast WON
R6 St Kilda (+4.5) vs Brisbane WON
R6 Geelong (+4.5) vs Adelaide WON
R7 Kangaroos (+28.5) vs Brisbane LOST
R8 Hawthorn (+8.5) vs Fremantle WON
R8 Geelong (+5.5) vs Melbourne WON
R10 Carlton (+46.5) vs St Kilda LOST
R11 Sydney (+30.5) vs St Kilda WON
R12 Essendon (+8.5) vs Brisbane LOST
R13 Geelong (+19.5) vs Brisbane WON
R14 Carlton (+17.5) vs Sydney WON
R14 Adelaide (+7.5) vs Melbourne WON

NRL
R2 Melbourne (+4.5) vs Newcastle LOST
R3 Parramatta (+3.5) vs Newcastle WON
R3 N.Qld (+2.5) vs Canberra WON
R3 W.Tigers (+6.5) vs Brisbane LOST
R4 Manly (+4.5) vs N.Zld LOST
R6 N.Qld (+6.5) vs Brisbane LOST
R6 Newcastle (+5.5) vs Syd Roosters LOST
R6 Sharks (+4.5) vs Canberra WON
R9 Newcastle (+6.5) vs Bulldogs WON
R10 Souths (+7.5) vs N.Qld WON
R10 W.Tigers (+2.5) vs Canberra WON
R11 N.Qld (+5.5) vs Penrith WON
R11 Souths (+6.5) vs N.Zld LOST
R13 N.Zld (+3.5) vs Canberra WON
R14 Souths (+13.5) vs Melbourne WON
R15 Parramatta (+2.5) vs Brisbane LOST
R16 N.Qld (+7.5) vs Bulldogs LOST

[moeee]

I hope that wasn't directed at me.



Your early prediction was Melbourne to win by 12 points.
So the homedog system says Adelaide is a selection.
At +7.5
Supposing they were at +1.5
Would you still have backed them,considering you thought Melbourne would win by 12 points?

[goldmember]

moeee, never had a bet on the port /saints game as i thought it was a 50/50 call, but they seem to get flustered when they are behind, and as with the swans game once they were behind they really were nver in it, thought the papers down there were a little harsh on them, with that picture of the wheels falling off[ even though it was funny]and they will improve this year and next year , do you think they need this season to top them off for 2005

[moeee]

Only one thing they need.
Sack the coach.
He even admitted he stuffed up.
I watched almost the whole game and didn't see Milne until the last minutes of the 3rd when he kicked a goal.
Couldn't find a better place to put him than the bench.
And a big man like Gehrig can't make his prescence felt in the back line?
Like they say.You don't win 10 in a row by fluke.
Grant Thomas needs to stop pretending his name is Sheedy and get back to the winning format.
Hopefully young Maguire is back next week.Sorely missed.

[sportznut]

Moeee,

I can understand why you're a bit confused.

I follow the system strictly and bet on EVERY single selection no matter what. It doesn't matter what my ratings say and it doesn't matter if I personally think the home team is going to get thrashed, I still back them. I may have a smaller bet, but I will still back them.

On the other hand, the ratings that I do each week are ONLY a guide and I do not go by them strictly. Sometimes my own gut feeling doesn't actually agree with the numbers that my ratings spit out. As an example, my ratings suggested Brisbane would slaughter Richmond, but my own gut feeling was actually that the margin would be more like 30 points. As a result, I left the game alone. There are at the most 2 or 3 games each week where I am totally confident that my ratings are close to the mark and those are the games I look at to bet on.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-07-05 19:44 ]</font>

[goldmember]

Port would have beaten any side on the weekend, when there in that mood they are probably the most exciting team to watch. was maguire injured or what, i can only see the team on the afl site, not any changes as they didnt show the footy show because of the tennis.

[moeee]

And which 2 or 3 were they last week?

[sportznut]

Well, on the weekend, apart from my two system bets there were actually NO matches that I was confident enough about AND that I thought I could get value in. All of the other matches appeared to be too close to call or there was simply not enough value to grab me. I was thinking about having a Friday night AFL/NRL double with Essendon and the Melbourne Storm, but I had second thoughts. Glad I did.

[Paddy]

In my opinion this round confirmed to me that there is currently only 1 genuine premiership chance – the Brisbane Lions.

Have been in cruise mode for a while now (a tipping margin nightmare!), poised & ready to step up a gear or 2 when the championship rounds commence.

[moeee]

From the bits and pieces I saw on Saturday night,the lions were just awe-inspiring.
Where can I get the $2.10 for the premiership.
Sorry Paddy,but I think there is some logic missing from your logic.

[Mr J]

Sportz, the only problem is they can't keep winning at that rate.

[horse9]

Sportznut

Would you be kind enough to publish your homedog system again?

[sportznut]

Okay, but be careful. As Mr J said, it's doubtful that it will keep going so well.

Anyway, it's really very simple. You simply back any home team which is given a points start and has a genuine home ground advantage. Here's an example. Let's say the West Coast is playing Brisbane in Perth and West Coast receives 8.5 points start. They are the selection. Simple as that.

Important things to remember: In the AFL, I don't bet when two Melbourne teams play each other and of course I don't bet on the Adelaide and Perth local derbies. In the NRL, I don't bet when two Sydney teams meet. And in Super12 Rugby, I don't bet in matches between two S.African teams or two NZ teams. Also, I won't bet when teams play at a neutral venue or when teams give away their home ground advantage to the opposition, like Melbourne playing their home game against the Lions at the Gabba. I hope you understand all that.

I use TAB Sportsbet for the lines and sometimes if a match is pretty even, they won't have line betting at all or they might put up the odds late in the week, sometimes even on game day, so you have to look out for that. Anyway, you can use any bookie you want, but I've found TAB Sportsbet reliable when using this system.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-07-06 15:31 ]</font>

[horsewithnoname]

On 2004-07-06 09:22, Paddy wrote:
In my opinion this round confirmed to me that there is currently only 1 genuine premiership chance – the Brisbane Lions.

Have been in cruise mode for a while now (a tipping margin nightmare!), poised & ready to step up a gear or 2 when the championship rounds commence.


Makes sense to me Paddy, but bit soon to call it a 1 horse race.

Anything can happen. A few injuries, suspensions, another team getting up momentum.

[rabbitz]

Being a lions fan I hope you Paddy are right
Leigh matthews is a sly dog.He might have just said ,go get the four points and dont get injuries or strained hammies and quads from kicking too many goals.Most of the team are uninjured,so thats good.Would you take -53.5 this week after last week,I wouldnt
Cheers

[moeee]

On 2004-07-06 16:49, rabbitz wrote:
Being a lions fan I hope you Paddy are right
Leigh matthews is a sly dog.He might have just said ,go get the four points and dont get injuries or strained hammies and quads from kicking too many goals.Most of the team are uninjured,so thats good.Would you take -53.5 this week after last week,I wouldnt
Cheers



Do you think he might also have so "Go and play like shit"?
I don't think so.
They had a bad day.It happens.Lost control of themselves.
Bookies aren't giving away 53 points to Bulldogs fans because they are feel sorry for them.
It's because that is what the margin will be at the end.

[Mr J]

On 2004-07-07 10:31, moeee wrote:
It's because that is what the margin will be at the end.


No no no Mo.

That's what they THINK the margin will be.

[moeee]

On 2004-07-07 12:28, Mr J wrote:

No no no Mo.
That's what they THINK the margin will be.



Well they've got most of my money this season.
And many a time Mr J,you have corrected me if I think the margin will be somewhat different than what the bookies are offering,then I must have made a mistake somewhere in my analysis.
Mr J.
53 is about right.
If bookies were punters they would be sitting here with us.They are very astute business men.
I have changed my betting procedures to allow for intangible things.

The Vibe.
Gut feeling.
G/M's summary.
And other things I haven't decided on yet.Maybe the ins-and-outs,weather,sackings,retirements,momentous occasions.
Typically stuff the bookies did not factor in,and never will.

[Mr J]

I'm just saying that's the bookies predication. It's just the best estimate they can come up with.

"They are very astute business men."

Yeh and I'm from mars...:smile:

"Typically stuff the bookies did not factor in,and never will."

That is not the only way to beat the bookies, and is actually more difficult. In more inefficient markets such as AFL or NRL, it's simply easier to utilize exisiting information better than the bookies do.

[sportznut]

On 2004-07-05 15:42, sportznut wrote:
The same thing happens this week with Hawthorn playing West Coast at York Park and I'm sure the Hawks will be underdogs in that one. So technically, I guess they shouldn't really be selections, but I'll probably have a small bet on them anyway.


Yep, I did end up having a small wager on Hawthorn with 7.5 start and I'd pretty much given up on them halfway through the last quarter, but thanks to a few late goals, they ended up going down by just 4. :smile:

[Mr J]

Yeh good result, would've been better if they'd lost by 7 or 8 so my middle hit.

Would've been 3u profit instead of 1u, but I'll take it.