AFL Value for round 14

[moeee]

St.Kilda are specials.Not only at the price but because they will win very comfortably.
They will play better and they will look better.
Mind games is what it's about.One big mind made up of 18 little minds.
They are back.Take the 4's the premiership.You won't see it again.
I had this vibe before they played Fremantle.
If I'm wrong,I banish myself to the saltmines with Primo.

Cheers - Mo.

[sportznut]

Port Adelaide have played twice at this ground for two good wins. While I do think the Saints will eventually come out on top, I don't think they are certainties.

[goldmember]

Port beat them by 42 there last year, so i wouldn't say there specials,

[moeee]

Yes that's all true,but Port were on top of the ladder and travelling (playing) very well.
St.Kilda was still getting their act together.
Last part of the year was when St.Kilda played consistently well.
Don't tell me Port has a home ground advantage here.Beat the Saints by 42.
What was the other game Sportznut?

[goldmember]

Bit hard to put that much on essendon when they play 1st?

[goldmember]

READ IT AGAIN, i said they beat them there last year by 42 , i never said they would beat them by 42 this time, i said there not spcials, thats all

[sportznut]

On 2004-06-28 20:22, moeee wrote:
Don't tell me Port has a home ground advantage here.Beat the Saints by 42.
What was the other game Sportznut?

They beat Hawthorn by 40 points in 2002 kicking the record score at the ground.

[moeee]

On 2004-06-28 20:27, goldmember wrote:
READ IT AGAIN, i said they beat them there last year by 42 , i never said they would beat them by 42 this time, i said there not spcials, thats all


Yeah apologies there G/M.
Should have read something like this.

Don't tell me Port have a home ground advantage there.
They beat the Saints there by 42 last year.
What was the other game they won there Sportznut?

Geez Primo.And I thought I was pissed.

[sportznut]

Primo, how many teams are you trying to get beaten??? Isn't France enough?

[moeee]

On 2004-06-28 20:47, sportznut wrote:
Primo, how many teams are you trying to get beaten??? Isn't France enough?



Just got an email from Sportodds.
Some punter collected a Multi containing 17 (count 'em) legs.
For the spectacular price of $3.22.

"What the!"

Thanks Sportz.Originally gave the Saints a ground advantage of 6 points.So I subtract the 6,gives the Saints the win by 23.
All the previous optimism still applies.

[sportznut]

On 2004-06-28 20:56, moeee wrote:
Some punter collected a Multi containing 17 (count 'em) legs.
For the spectacular price of $3.22.


By my reckoning, that means an average price of around $1.07. Easier ways to win $3.22 than hoping 17 red hot favourites all manage to win.

[Mr J]

Primo I doubt you'd win all of them. Most of those are likely -EV and I'm sorry but you can't beat mathematics.

Risking 100% of your BR on any bet that isn't a sure thing (and by sure thing I mean rigged) is dramatically overbetting.

To justify a bet of just 50% of your BR with a 50% ADVANTAGE, your bet needs to hit 82.29%!!!!

Even if you had a 99% advantage, and the bet would hit 99%, a stake of 100% of your BR is still not justified.

I'm glad you don't have 2 mil, you would be left with $0.00 very quickly.

[Floydyboy]

I think there might be some value on friday night with the Roos

[Paddy]

On 2004-06-28 23:21, Floydyboy wrote:
I think there might be some value on friday night with the Roos


With the start, outright or both?

[Floydyboy]

A bit of both although i havent seen the start yet but i think they are some sort of chance to win outright

[moeee]

This would be another of those mental games.
Kangaroos can say goodnight Irene if this one loses.
Essendon would probably find a top-4 finish easier if they win this one.
How bad do you want to win.
More at stake for the Roos so beware you Bomber fans.

[rabbitz]

I think that essendon will probably get home ,but there are easier ways to make money this weekend,and also there are harder.
St Kilda v Port adelaide will not carry any of my money.Both teams are up and down and god knows what the weather will be in tasmania,so that ones out.
Secondly taking the lions with a big start like 70 or 80 is a risk due to the decelerating factor,roll your own round 6-7 goals.collingwood got beat by the swans but hawthorn aint the swans,so there is your second leg.And whats with melbourne and Adelaide,do the bookies know something we dont,the start is only 7.5.I thought a least four goals comfortably.So your treble could be something like lions -37.5,Pies -23.5,Melbourne -23.5.Should be around $4.50 comfortably.
Cheers

[moeee]

Vibe for the Crows game.Back both teams to win by over 30 points.Just can't smell a close one here.Crows will be hot or not.

See what I mean about facts and figures.Surely if a bloke tips a bit of a blowout he'd know which team will do it.
No.This is the vibe at work.

Cheers - Mo.

"And then I'd bet all of that on Henman ($1.75) to beat Phillipousis - even though the match is played tonight, let's assume it is not." - Primo

And Henman won. :smile:

[Mr J]

Still overbetting. Primo, there are no sure things, everything in gambling is based around maths. Simply winning isn't enough, you bet -EV which means every $ you place the more you will lose.

Mr J let's just wait and see. I appreciate your comments and believe me - I'm not sure about the bets but hey pal, that's why they call it gambling. Risking things that you value in order to gain more valuable things based on the result of an event.

As it happens, I'm taking a big risk and I want everyone to know this...

I'm betting $50 on a pick-6 (it sounds crazy).

Sydney - Collingwood - Geelong - St Kilda - Melbourne - Fremantle at $14 which, if it wins, will leave me with $700. Sounds tempting, doesn't it? Please feed me your criticism.

Flodboy, you aren't welcome to comment as usual.

Thanks.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: primo on 2004-06-30 00:18 ]</font>

Another $50 on the same pick6 bet, only WCE to win against Geelong - all the rest the same.

[Mr J]

Well that's the difference between the two of us. You're in it for some fun, where as this is how I make my living.

Hope you win though :wink:

you make a living gambling? that's something I can admire.

Are you also a bookmaker?

New age Sam Rothstein over here. :wink:

[moeee]

On 2004-06-29 16:09, rabbitz wrote:

god knows what the weather will be in tasmania



Wouldn't mind a dollar on COLD.:smile:

[Mr J]

you make a living gambling?


Yep, since I left school (3rd year out).

I'll be more successful than Sam :wink:

[moeee]

On 2004-06-30 00:19, primo wrote:
Another $50 on the same pick6 bet, only WCE to win against Geelong - all the rest the same.


If you had common sense you would put the whole $100 on a 5-pick Multi,leaving out the Geelong game.

That's the difference between mug punters and me.Can't see the woods for the trees.
Now if only I could get my self-control under control.

MY BETTING AGENCY DOESN'T OFFER PICK-5'S

IDIOT.

[sportznut]

Well, if you're so unsure about the WCst/Geel game, you should just leave that pick 6 alone and try some of the other smaller multiples. TAB sportsbet do offer a pick 4 on the first 4 games on Friday and Saturday and a treble on the last 3 games on Sunday. So if you wanted to, you could always bet on the pick 4 and if that won, reinvest the money on the Sunday treble. I wouldn't do that, but if you want to have a try, go ahead.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-07-01 18:08 ]</font>

The issue has been resolved.

Let's move on.

[rabbitz]

you move we"ll stay

[moeee]

I don't have many friends but I make an effort to keep the ones I do have.
There is a difference between criticising a person and criticising a person for what he does.
Primo.What applies for you to Floydyboy,now applies from me to you.

[Paddy]

On 2004-06-29 00:22, Floydyboy wrote:
A bit of both although i havent seen the start yet but i think they are some sort of chance to win outright


Took your advice Floydyboy and collected :smile: Thanks !

[Paddy]

Still not back from the party Floydyboy! :lol:

[rabbitz]

LAMENTERS CORNER
If essendon could have won I would multis going everywhere but alas
cheers

[sportz&all]

I'm sure a lot of punters in same corner, including myself.

[rabbitz]

3/8 favourites in the afl
I t was a tough week for some,but the adelaide demons blow out hurt ,right at the end.

[sportznut]

The good old sacked coach theory works again!!!