AFL R14

[goldmember]

ESSENDON v KANGAROOS

Essendon have won 6 of the last 8 against kangaroos,losing the last 2

last 4 H2H:
R 1 2001 ESSENDON 146- 61 @ M.C.G
R16 2001 ESSENDON 171-159 @ M.C.G
R10 2002 KANGAROOS 92-84 @ M.C.G
R12 2003 KANGAROOS 96-88 @ TELSTRA DOME

CARLTON v SWANS

carlton have lost their last 2 at optus to the swans but had previously won 3/4 before that.

last 4 H2H:
R 2 2002 SWANS 111-33 @ OPTUS OVAL
R17 2002 SWANS 92-69 @ STADIUM AUST
R 1 2003 SWANS 146-72 @ STADIUM AUST
R16 2003 SWANS 115-84 @ OPTUS OVAL

COLLINGWOOD v HAWTHORN

Collingwood have won only 1 of their last 6 against hawthornand 2 of the last 6 against them at the m.c.g

last 4 H2H:
R16 2001 HAWTHORN 144-89 @ M.C.G
R 4 2002 COLLINGWOOD 104-63 @ M.C.G
R19 2002 HAWTHORN 105-97 @ M.C.G
R12 2003 HAWTHORN 84-51 @ M.C.G


BRIS LIONS v RICHMOND

The lions have won 6/10 against richmond, winning 5/6 at the gabba against them. Under L. Matthews the lions have won 60/72 at the gabba.

last 4 H2H:
R19 2001 LIONS 128-97 @ GABBA
P/F 2001 LIONS 136-68 @ GABBA
R15 2002 LIONS 118-55 @ TELSTRA DOME
R13 2003 LIONS 104-61 @ GABBA

west coast V GEELONG

W/coast have won only 1 of their last 7 against geelong, but have won 4/7 at subiaco against them.

last 4 H2H:
R16 2001 GEELONG 150-80 @ SUBIACO
R14 2002 GEELONG 65-33 @ SKILLED STADIUM
R 7 2003 W/COAST 113-97 @ SUBIACO
R20 2003 DRAW 63-63 @ SKILLED STADIUM

ST KILDA v PORT ADELAIDE

Played 10, saints won the 1st 5, port the last 5, and pot won the only game between them at york pk by 42 pts.

last 4 H2H:
R19 2001 PORT ADEL 125-114 @ TELSTRA DOME
R 3 2002 PORT ADEL 139-56 @ TELSTRA DOME
R18 2002 PORT ADEL 105-63 @ AAMI STADIUM
R12 2003 PORT ADEL 99-57 @ YORK PK

WESTERN BULLDOGS v FREMANTLE

W/bulldogs have won 7/12 against fremantle , but have won 5 of the last 7 clashes,with both teams having 1 win each from the 2 played at telstra dome.

last 4 H2H:
R15 2001 W/BULLDOGS 119-85 @ TELSTRA DOME
R11 2002 W/BULLDOGS 145-80 @ OPTUS OVAL
R 7 2003 FREMANTLE 155-72 @ TELSTRA DOME
R20 2003 FREMANTLE 133-77 @ SUBIACO

ADELAIDE v MELBOURNE

The crows have won 4 of the last 6 against melb and 7/10 at aami stadium against them.

last 4 H2H:
R17 2001 ADEL 100-84 @ M.C.G
R12 2002 MELB 98-73 @ OPTUS OVAL
S/F 2002 ADEL 130-118 @ M.C.G
R12 2003 ADEL 138-65 @ AAMI STADIUM



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-06-30 17:48 ]</font>

[moeee]

Well as usual your comments there on each round are eye-opening as usual.
Pretty much second thoughts for all you Pie fans.Don't think many punters follow them.
And G/M,maybe that 80 point head start looks a bit big.
Even the Saints have no chance.
Need to dig deep to find stats in support of my reason for Saints being specials.
Dig deep right down into my guts.:smile:

[moeee]

Anyway fans.Here's what I done.
Saints for the premiership $200 for $50.
Win Double Geelong and Saints about $100 for $30
Double Brisbane -49.5/St.Kilda -8.5 $114 for $30

[goldmember]

Moeee, -80.5 might be too big , but you wont know that until saturday night, thats why i'm going to have 3 small multis on the AFL into the NRL -60.5 @ $2.28, -70.5 @ $2.91 and -80.5 @ $4.03

[goldmember]

I heard that richardson is out of richmond and favola out of carlton,can anyone tell me if there is any more changes.

thanks

[mello]

WHITNALL,WIGGANS out for Carlton Fiora FLETCHER for Rich.Whats your best for w/end goldmember

[moeee]

Rabbitz.Thanks for the advice.
Caught up in the not got the credit card.
Have an account,but don't understand this
BPAY thing.
Anyway,I'll sort it out on Monday hopefully.

Regardless of that,here are my roll-your owns.

Carlton +27.5 $1.57
St.Kilda -11.5 $2.10
Makes it $3

Brisbane -44.5 $1.68
St.Kilda -11.5 $2.10
Makes it $3.53

Carlton +27.5 $1.57
Brisbane -44.5 $1.68
St.Kilda -11.5 $2.10
Makes it $5.54

All for $20 each

Good onya Pal for jumpin' with the Roos.
Still got a chance of making the eight.
Worth $200 to me if it happens.
Had a quarter quad going.Either team had to win by up to 12 points.Minute and a half to go and Essendon player has a rubber chest 25 meters out.

Cheers guys.

Oh yeah.As an edit the best one is the Brisbane/St.Kilda multi.
_________________
You can only win if the odds are in your favour!

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: moeee on 2004-07-03 02:49 ]</font>

[Mr J]

Anyone got the 2002-2004 AFL spreads in excel format? Or know of a website that lists them in a table format?

Sportz, tabonline.com.au is fine for NRL since they have the footytab, ie list spreads week by week. sportstab just lists day by day which takes infinitely longer, hot any suggestions?

[goldmember]

Hi mello, brisbane past the post but are too short, so my best is the swans.

[moeee]

Yeah you are right on Pal.
My business.:smile:

Actually never had one.Had a bit of a go at the debit card.They wanted to see last years tax assessment.Haven't lodged a return for 8 years makes it a bit tricky.

I'll get there.Thanks for the concern.

On their own.The Saints -11.5 at $2.10
Just find the combinations are better value.
I rate the Saints at $1.40.Makes them a 50% overlay.
Lions also at $1.40 but only given $1.68
That makes it a 20% overlay.
Combining the two equals $1.96,but given $3.53
That's an overlay of 80%.
Chuck in Carlton and the overlay becomes 110%
Trouble is the odds of a collect also go up.
Keep the Multis short.More chance of coming across that elusive Partridge.

[moeee]

On 2004-07-03 06:05, Pal wrote:
Mo I was reading your collingwood thread (the vibe)I liked them as well but not by 30 ..-12.5 @$1,50 will do me ...When I asked for your best rolly I meant 1 team ...
Sharpen up your act
:grin:


Never said no such thing in that thread or any other thread.
I tip Collingwood to win by 22 points.
Sharpen up your act
:grin:

[Mr J]

Well Moe, slightly adjusted my system for AFL. Result from the testing over the last three season was 190-139 :smile:

NRL wasn't too bad either, 196-138 :wink:

[moeee]

Yes Mr J.

Does that mean you selected 193 even money chances out of 329.
Or does that mean you came up with 193 or so winners out of 329 selections.

Heads you win,Tails you lose.

[Mr J]

They're all bets against the spreads (handicaps). So they're all meant to be roughly 50/50.

I agree that that record would be very unimpressive if just trying to pick the winner!!!

BTW, had Carlton +17.5. System had it at +13.55

West Coast at over even money. System has Eagles winning comfortably.

Richmond +49.5. System has the line at +41.3.

[moeee]

Problem with your system,and mine,is it doesn't allow for the gut factor.
You follow the Other code closely and have mere human opinions on the chances.
I'm like that with AFL.
But anyway,whatever works,works!

Well you would be singing the blues but I don't know about the wings of an eagle lifting you up.
Richmond?.Don't go there.
Refer Goldmembers banned list.

[goldmember]

Thats what i do with the NRL moeee, watch all the games closely and seeing is believing,sometimes its better that way rather than relying on a model,dont get the good info on the AFL up here, except for the footy show and watching most games, so any help on any games would be appreciated moeee

thanks

[Mr J]

"But anyway,whatever works,works!"

Yep. The model has performed well in AFL from '02 to '04 despite not considering byes, injuries and SOO etc.

"Refer Goldmembers banned list."

That's HIS banned list. That said, from what I remember richmond has cost me a bit.

"watch all the games closely and seeing is believing,sometimes its better that way rather than relying on a model,"

Totally disagree. Without the numbers it's very hard to profit. I'd love to see how guys on the two footy shows do at trying to profit over a season of betting.

[goldmember]

Mr j, i only watch the AFL footy show to get any team changes, i don't take any notice of what they tip as i have my own opinions.As for watching a game, if a team, lets say souths or manly get beaten by 50, and you have them next time +14,[ i know it depends on who they play] some of the time you do your money cold be they even kick off.

[sportznut]

Well, Carlton (+17.5) was a good win for the 'Home Dog' system and $2.20 was good value. :smile:

[sportznut]

On 2004-07-03 18:00, Mr J wrote:
Without the numbers it's very hard to profit. I'd love to see how guys on the two footy shows do at trying to profit over a season of betting.


Not sure how they go betting wise, but I know that the guys from the NRL Footy Show are pretty awful tipsters.

[goldmember]

To be honest sportz, there sheep and tip the same teams

[sportznut]

In the NRL Footy Show's own tipping comp, Peter Sterling is doing easily the best of them and he's outside the top 2000.

[goldmember]

2,000 !!!! i think my dog is running 1,485 LOL

signing off to watch the end of the west coast game and flick over to the raiders and then the roosters, eels play the roosters next week and they will get lapped! sea yah later.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-07-03 19:33 ]</font>

[sportznut]

Well, Brisbane never at any stage looked like winning by a huge margin tonight.

[moeee]

I feel ill.
:cry:

[sportznut]

Bad luck Moeee, but personally I reckon you might feel ill quite a bit if you consistently bet on teams giving away 50 points start!!! That's a big ask.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-07-03 22:12 ]</font>

[moeee]

Sheet.
Goldmember thought even 80 wouldn't be a bad idea.
Looks like I now need to take a double
tomorrow.
St.Kilda -8.5 into Fremantle -whatever.
In fact back in a minute.

[Mr J]

Well nice start to the weekend in AFL 3-0. I guess Richmond won't be on my banned list just yet :wink:

[sportznut]

There's been 5 games so far. Which ones didn't you bet on?

[Paddy]

Go the Bulldogs!

[sportznut]

Geez, Port Adelaide sure love playing in Tassie!!! Perhaps the Saints will have a rethink about playing 'home' games down there, especially against Port!


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-07-04 15:22 ]</font>

[Mr J]

Disappointed by StK, had them winning comfortably.

Had adelaide and fremantle also winning comfortably :wink: