Please help with stats for favourites winning and placing

[cameron398]

Hello all. I can recall seeing some great stats in the past for performance of favourites.

And do you think I can find them now when I want them hehe. NO!!

Can someone please assist with the historical percentage of favs winning, running second and third.

If someone out there is really organised they may have these figures broken down to include different percentages for different starting prices also.

Help would be much appreciated.

Ta

[sportznut]

Basically, I think it works out to be around 30% wins and 60% placings (including the wins). I'm sure somebody else will have more accurate figures for you.

[cameron398]

I pulled my finger out and did some more key word searches on the forum. I have half answered my question in the context of a 600 race sample - being for the first SP paper favourite
1st--2nd--3rd--top 3
25% 16% 13% 54%

Awaiting other replies...

[sportznut]

Paper favourites and actual race favourites aren't always the same. I would suggest that backing the horse that starts favourite on the day would give you a better strike rate, but a lower average dividend.

[Chuck]

Here are some intersting facts and figures for u all:

Favs win approx. 30% of all races
2nd Favs win approx. 20% of all races
3rd Favs win approx. 16% of all races
4th Favs win approx. 14% of all races

So the first four favourites win approx. 80% of all races


TAB no.1 wins about 15% of the time
TAB no.2 wins about 13% of the time
TAB no.3 wins about 11% of the time
TAB no.4 wins about 10% of the time

...7 out of 10 races are won by the first 6 runners

ALSO...on average, barriers 1-6 win 60% of all races


Horses who won, that ran 1st last start: 25%
Horses who won, that ran 2nd last start: 16%
Horses who won, that ran 3rd last start: 12%
Horses who won, that ran 4th last start: 9%

i.e. 60% of races are won by horse that ran 1st-4th last start

ALSO CONSIDER:

1st in at least one of its last two starts: 31%
2nd in at least one of its last two starts: 29%

Another 60%er

Chuck

[Mark]

Lies, damn lies, & statistics.
So from these figures we look for a horse that is in the first 4 in betting, is number 1-6, starts from barrier 1-6, ran in the first 4 at it's last start, and ran 1st or 2nd at one of it's previous 2 starts.
It will probably be favourite & it should win, using these stats, around 10% of the time.

[Chuck]

jeez...Cameron asked a question and i ansered it...i didn't expect people to start jumping down my throats about it. I didn't make them up - they're not my personal statitics remember...i just thought i would be helpful by getting cameron closer to the conclusion he trying to draw

Chuck

[Mark]

Chuck

Sorry Chuck, not having a go at you. Just pointing out that statistics on their own are next to useless.

[thetout]

mark u have a lot to learn.

[thetout]

Cameron there are a lot of systems based around the fav,s.The one that I personally like is favorite in prepost and top rater in Zipform in the sportsman + the horse must start favorite on course.Put 7>16 days last start & 10 to 17 days 2nd last start.That,s it. Note: u won,t go broke backing them for a place.

[partypooper]

thetout, I like that one , not many rules, I like a system that is easy. It reminds e of one that I devised a while ago when I was being too unrealistic regarding POT.

What I'm actually looking for now is one that will DEFINITLY break even at WORST, do you think this one fits that catagory?? if so what about if the last 2 rules are reduced to "must have ran in past 21 days)?? or maybe even 14 days??


PS I'm talking about backing for the place there as I need VERY regular collects for my idea to work.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: partypooper on 2004-07-10 00:49 ]</font>

[partypooper]

cameron398, just my 2cents worth, 2 rules that I have found invaluable as filters for favorites or any other selections are as follows:

(1) Don't back any horse that that finished more than 3.5 lengths from the winner last start.

(2) Don't back any horse that is set to carry 3.5 k'gs up or down from it's set weight last run, (ignoring all allowances)

As a footnote if backing for the place, a horse that has run within 100 metres of todays distance at least once in its last 3 runs, and one with at least 50% place S/R DEFINITLY lifts S/R BUT depending on the method of selection may also result in a drop in POT so what Mark says has some relevance as well!

[Mark]

Yes Mr Tout, we all never stop learning. One question for you, do you make a living from this game?



Thought not.

[tandy]

On 2004-07-08 12:16, cameron398 wrote:
Hello all. I can recall seeing some great stats in the past for performance of favourites.

And do you think I can find them now when I want them hehe. NO!!

Can someone please assist with the historical percentage of favs winning, running second and third.

If someone out there is really organised they may have these figures broken down to include different percentages for different starting prices also.

Help would be much appreciated.

Ta


--------------------------------------

For Victorian TAB meetings since 1/Jan/2003 :

Total runs = 66506
Races = 6210

Hits%:

1.Fav: 1st=30.90, 2nd=19.02, 3rd=14.27
2.Fav: 1st=19.47, 2nd=17.52, 3rd=14.70
3.Fav: 1st=13.42, 2nd=14.75, 3rd=14.41

If the punter bets $1 on each of the top 3 favs to win on every race (with the bookmakers, at SP):

POT:

1.Fav = -8.65%
2.Fav = -13.48%
3.Fav = -22.83%

(I'm lazy - separate pct for diff SPs is too much work right now. But from memory of analysis I did a few months ago, the shorter the SP, the less the loss-on-turnover, especially the odds-on favs. I remember this because it was a surprising result, contradicting the old saying that "Odds on, look on")

Hope this helps.



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: tandy on 2004-07-16 19:12 ]</font>