Proven ratings system for winners CONSISTANTLY?

[Westys]

I would like to find a system for rating a consistant winner within every 12 or so races. This i would like to trial and in return would hand back a system for betting management that is sensible and suited for your ratings system. These two elements combined will definantly prove profitable.

[partypooper]

Westys, not sure what youre looking for but simply backing the favourite or even pre-post favourite will give you about 30% winners (or about 1 in 3 ) if you want better odds just take the first horse in the pre-post betting forcast quoted at 5-1 or better this will give you about 15% winners. Of course in both cases it will result in a level satkes loss, so your staking plan will need to be something special!!

[partypooper]

Westys, most of the members here could find that 5-1 winner in 15 races ON AVERAGE (that represents 6.66% strike rate and a loss on turnover at levels of 60%)

What none of us can guarantee is how they fall, ie, you can have 5 winnrs in a row followed by 17 losers (eg. only)

[Westys]

last 2 nights have been trialling top jockey ...did no good then trainer....did no good then jockey trainer combination .....did no good and a host of other ideas . Problem is not finding the frequent winner it is finding the frequent winner at value which suggets to look for odds ,see im looking for a winner every 12 or so races as guaranteed as possible while paying at least 5 bucks . Where im at with it now is selecting the 3rd fav in every sat race and the results were from flemington ,randwick ,eaglefarm and morphettville . 27 races 3 winners paying $5+ with a $387....not bad BUT i went to the 12th race before i nailed a winner. Now 12 races on the first day of the trial seems too unstable

[Westys]

Must find a way to consistanly get the winner every 15 races ....then quit work lol

[davez]

On 2004-07-13 19:57, Westys wrote:
Must find a way to consistanly get the winner every 15 races ....then quit work lol




Will you fall into a screaming heap if you went 15 without a winner? Will you have a backup bank?

To regularly back a 4/1+ winner, all you really need to do is simply select the 1st horse in a reliable market at better than 4/1, apply a few sensible filters & put your hard earned on. It will be highly unlikely you will go 15 races in a row without a winner, but it will happen from time to time, therefore the need for backup banks.

Simple eh! :smile:

[partypooper]

Westys, I operated a "cover to Win" system successfully in England for almost 2 years, b4 the crash came at a Cheltenham 4 day meeting without a single winner. I lost everything I'd made and more besides. With the benefit of hindsight I now realise like Davez says its better to have "maximum" that youre prepared to blow in one run, then have reserve banks to fall back on "WHEN" it happens.
Another method of selection that you may like to try out is working down from TAB no 1, take the first last start winner, this produces about 25% winners, its fairly consistent, some of course are favourits but also some at very good odds. Last Sat was not a good day for this one , but thats just it, no matter what method, you will never be consistent all the time.

As Davez says as well, its probably better to take the first one in the pre-post quoted at 4-1 rather than just the 3rd fav.
You could also refine this futher by saying : The first one quoted at 4-1 that is a last start winner. OR you could take the firs one quoted at 4-1 as the basic selection but only include IF a last start winner, all good stuff isn't it?

[jimmyc_dogs]

honestly guys, is there ANY proven winning systems??? if there was wouldent everyone have the system, and every punter be richer rather than poorer???

i do believe there are good systems out there (as proven on this web site) but none that can consistantly pic good winners, week in and week out.............

jimmy

[davez]

jimmy, really dont know if there are any gooduns out there, but i would think that if someone has got his hands on one that he would be mightly foolish to divulge it!

[puntz]

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: puntz on 2004-07-24 23:05 ]</font>

[kenchar]

Westys,
I agree with Jimmyc_dogs,I have spent a small fortune over the past couple of years on rating services ,information, form sites etc etc. The only one that has been reasonabaly consistant is the service offered by this site, but unfortunately it is saturday only and that is no good to me.
The size of the bet I would have to have on only 1 day of the the week to show me enough profit over a year to live off would scare the living sh** out of me.
I prefer to bet every day and hopefully pinch enough for a days wages and stop.

Davez,
I posted last year what I was doing but was shot down in flames by all the EXPERTS on the forum who cannot believe that someone who hasn't got 5 years of database and doesn,t do 10 hours of form analysis a day can possibly win at this game.
I am STILL doing the same thing although after listening to all the EXPERT posts I began to doubt myself and looked at many other methods.
They ALL failed so I reverted to what I was doing and have been happy ever since.
The only difference now is then I was betting $200 to win 2 points eg $400.
I am now betting $400 to win 1 point plus overs.
My last 3 months.
MAY $14800
JUNE$12800
So far this month $7600.
Whether anyone believes this or not I don't give a damn and I am not going to get in to a bunfight with all the forum experts.
All I can say if anyone is serious about this game you HAVE to bet everyday possible, and pinch a small amount and STOP.
I have been doing this from home, but will shortly be going to every meeting I can possibly get to as I am still a firm believer that if you work from odds as I do NOTHING compares to being at the track.

Cheers

[Westys]

4/1 ay.....hmmm that would maybe go along the lines of up to 20 bets in a row and each bet set up to make say....a $10 profit or even a $5 profit with the setup involving each bet made win or lose working out to this profit on every race ,thus resulting something like...........8 consecutive losses then a winner at 4/1 and a total profit at $90 . these are guidelines at present. All that is needed is the formula of bets ....eg: 1st bet $3.50 2nd bet at $8.00 3rd bet at $14.00 etc... these are based on net profits ..... 20 races and 1 winner consistantly ? I think its possible now that we know the strike rate on the 4/1 shot and maybe combine the last start winner from the top of the list as has been discussed earlier ......I must work hard on this over the weekend....let me know the other pitfalls to watch out for

[maverick1993]

well Done Kenchar !!..I still reckon backing the picnic races at Wooop Woop is mighty hard to do..But if you can pinch a profit in these meets you must be doing something right..i personally like a detailed form to study..and of course speed maps and videos.
But being at the track does have a distinct advantage especially if you know horses..

[Westys]

I must agree with Kenchar in the sense of taking small amounts and stopping ...after all if there were ways of making the big$$$ on every day of the week it would most certainly require large bets to win small where all u have to do is tip the scales into our favour just ever so slightly .....this i belive is the key. Where the track is concerned obviously is where the odds are because as we all know TABCORP and the others dont take a large enough slice of the pie now do they!!!!!!!! ps...I hear austote.com only tax us 5%

[jimmyc_dogs]

On 2004-07-15 19:33, kenchar wrote:
I am STILL doing the same thing although after listening to all the EXPERT posts I began to doubt myself and looked at many other methods.
They ALL failed so I reverted to what I was doing and have been happy ever since.
The only difference now is then I was betting $200 to win 2 points eg $400.
I am now betting $400 to win 1 point plus overs.
My last 3 months.
MAY $14800
JUNE$12800
So far this month $7600.
Whether anyone believes this or not I don't give a damn and I am not going to get in to a bunfight with all the forum experts.
All I can say if anyone is serious about this game you HAVE to bet everyday possible, and pinch a small amount and STOP.
I have been doing this from home, but will shortly be going to every meeting I can possibly get to as I am still a firm believer that if you work from odds as I do NOTHING compares to being at the track.

Cheers




hey mate, if u got the time occasionally would u be able 2 mayb post some selections up, well done if your making a slight profit, cause in the end thats what its about,

jimmy


p.s i agree about making a small profit and stopping, i work about 20 hours a week earning $15 an hour, the last 2 days i have made 2 bets, and profited just under $45 dollars (both place bets) thats an extra 3 hours work in 10 minuts, very very happy

[kenchar]

Puntz,
Just curious but are you now going ahead using Mark's odds system.
Jimmyc,
I would genuinely like to post selections but my mind is made up of what to bet as the horses go into the barrier.
That is the problem with what I do, and that is why I got so many knockers before.
How can anyone post gut feelings with 30sec to go.
It is the same as Mark's odds system, it is impossible for him to post selections yet his system makes more sense to me than all the form work in the universe.
This business is about money, learn to read a market, look for something that doesn't make sense, use at least 4 sites 2 bookies and 2 tabs and if something catches your eye that stands out then back it to place if better than $2.

Cheers

[jimmyc_dogs]

thanks 4 the advice, will take it in next time im having a bit of a punt, i also go more on gut feeling aswell, not really into the in depth form reading......

thanks

jimmy

[puntz]

Kenchar,
it's doing ok.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: puntz on 2004-07-16 10:06 ]</font>

[Mark]

Wow, and I thought I was doing OK, good one Kenchar !

:grin:

[Merriguy]

Yes, inpressive, Kenchar. Have been going to ask on the forum as to how you are going. Have been trying to emulate you (with $50.00 base bets). Seems to work much of the time. Thanks.

Its a big step up (for you) to $400.00; but I guess once you snare that winner for the place you are finished for the day. How many bets, on average, does it take, if you don't mind me asking. Cheers :smile: .

[davez]

Kenchar, got to agree with what you have said there except stopping when you daily target is achieved. I say this only because if I bet this way it would be a disaster.

That said once a winning formula is found - that being a combination of a) selection method & b) wagering method - then happy days! & as you have said the opinion of others on that subject counts for naught!

I would add that after finding this site some time ago & reading every post that seemed vaguely relevant to what I was doing & trying to achieve that I finally was able to realize where my problems lay & why a once successful strategy had started to turn to shit, & that was mainly due to how I was betting not what I was betting on.

So, whilst when I first saw the name of this site I thought 'ah yeh right!', it turns out that there are a few of them here!

Whilst I am not up there with your figures Kenchar, any regular profit out of this game sure are sweet!

Ps – good to see people talking on here again, things seemed to go a bit quiet for a while there.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: davez on 2004-07-16 10:15 ]</font>

[kenchar]

Puntz,
If you want to email me.
K**ch*r69auATyahoodotcomdotau
Merriguy,
50% of the time 1 bet :smile:
The other 50% like anyone else up and down, sometimes an all day grind :sad:
Somedays really good profits e.g .7 up and then snag say a 2.8 which gives me 2.5 points profit on the day :smile:
Other days battle all day and finish .5 up.
The worst days lose 3 points which is my cutoff point. :cry:
Thankfully this doesn't happen too often.

[Merriguy]

Only just caught your post, Kenchar. Thanks for that --- I was convinced that I would never get to the stage where almost always I had a winner in one bet. Glad to see (if I can put it that way :grin:) that you don't always win easily either! Appreciated.

[Westys]

Well i calculated a betting formula to suit making a $10 profit per race on the basis of a 4/1 winner with 20 bets in backup. Ends up costing $3000 approx taking into account that a winner paying 5 or 6/1 will multiply the profit considerably ....but is still not viable to risk 3k on making small amounts so this is going back to the drawing board