AFL RD 17

[rabbitz]

St Kilda $1.40
Essendon $2.85 Friday night Telstra Dome
Kangaroos $1.40
Hawthorn $2.85 Sat arvo MCG
Fremantle $1.45
Swans $2.65 Sat arvo Subiaco
Brisbane Lions $1.08
Adelaide Crows $7.00 Sat night GABBA
Western Bulldogs $2.50
Collingwobble $1.50 Telstra Dome Sat Night
Port Adelaide $1.14
West Coast $5.25 AAMI stadium Sun 12:40
Geelong $1.30
Carlton Blues $3.50 Telstra Dome Sun Arvo
Richmond Tiges $5.00
Melbourne Demons $1.16 MCG Sun Arvo
There is no such thing as a certainty but I will be concentrating solely on Brisbane,Port adelaide and Melbourne.St Kilda v Essendon is one for the desperates and also if you take either in multis starting on friday night your whole multi system could be shot before the weekend has begun
Moee or someone who can work it out,what is the respective starts for lions,port and dees at $1.70 each of three
cheers


_________________


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: rabbitz on 2004-07-19 16:45 ]</font>

[sportznut]

My early ratings:

St Kilda by 15
Kangaroos by 24
Fremantle by 16
Brisbane by 56
Collingwood by 14
Port Adelaide by 34
Geelong by 29
Melbourne by 50

[moeee]

Rabbitz.
Bit tricky to work out when they are so short.Especially the lions.

Be prepared for something like this.
Lions -36
Port -29 (Edit -31)
Demons -27 (Edit -30)

And my caution this week is it's about time someone served it up to the Power.
And another word of warning Rabbitz.Just because the teams are short,don't mean nothing.
Brisbane struggled against the Tigers.
Port was belted by the Kangaroos.
The Crows gave the demons a hiding.
I think a good supply of baskets is in order.
Mix and match.That is,if you want to get some sort of collect every week.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: moeee on 2004-07-20 14:06 ]</font>

[moeee]

I now realize it is not who is in and who is out,but what position can or cannot be filled.
Essendon on Friday night fell down badly at centre-half-forward.Hird out,Lucas out.I don't know who played that position,but they were shite!
Sportznut.I suggest you go back in this years Lions results and see how the lions went without Jonathon Brown.
I believe your win margin is way too high.I thought 41 was about right,but take out Brown and I'm thinking 23 is about the most they can win by.

[rabbitz]

moeee
I think on a fine track at the gabba
sportnutz's margin might be too short
they could easily win by 60+
Having said that I think they cope alright without brown.
Having said that I think they get lazy towards the end of a game
Last week I had them winning by between 40-59
with UNITAB $3.85
towards the end of the match they were in front by 53 pts and i thought i'd lose the bet because they would go over 59 pts.I really didnt think theyd fall asleep and win by 36 only
So because i say one margin doesnt mean i would put money behind it.I think they could win by 50 or 60
but will probably only take 5-6 goals tops.
sportodds have got the start at -42.5
I think melbourne and port are cruising
the following teams will not see a cent of my money
saints
essendon kangas, hawks ,freo ,swans ,pies carlton ,western bulldogs, pies ,west coast,
along with several nrl teams
cheers
P.S.Have you a note for not visiting this forum on monday

[nelgsta]

I'm a newbie here...

I know a lot of people have jumped off the Bomber's lately, but I still like to include them in my weekly bets...

no Rioli, Cupido, Lucas, Hird, Wellman...

Take out the first quarter against Fremantle last week and they didn't perform too poorly...

St. Kilda will fall back into complacency after thrashing appalling opposition last week.

If Essendon manage to get back a few of the names above (of course ruling back Hird), I wouldn't write them off...

Thoughts?

[rabbitz]

In response to lions possible winning margin
I've just done a little bit of lookin'about and the lions average winning margin this year is 39.83 pts ,with their gabba winning margin 38.87 pts.(probably due to flogging bombers at the dome)
Also for home and away season to date you may find this interesting.
Average points per quarter
1ST QUARTER-25.75(25.00 in 2003)
2ND QUARTER-29.56(27.13 in 2003)
3RD QUARTER-30.87(25.41 in 2003)
4TH QUARTER-24.18(25.63 in 2003)
Now Moee and sportznut,as far as Jonathon Brown playing or not playing you can work that one out.
Cheers
P.S. I dont think I'll bet on lions at all so I can enjoy the game without worrying about points.

[goldmember]

ST KILDA v ESSENDON

The saints have won only 1/5 against essendon at telstra dome. This year at telstra dome the saints have won all 10 played there while essendon have won 3/7 there.

last 4 H2H:
R11 2001 ESSENDON 128-86 @ TELSTRA DOME
R 8 2002 ESSENDON 171-72 @ TELSTRA DOME
R14 2003 ESSENDON 119-51 @ TELSTRA DOME
R 2 2004 ST KILDA 94-60 @ TELSTRA DOME

KANGAROOS v HAWTHORN

Both have 3 wins each from their last 6 clashes,all at m.c.g, while this year the kangaroos have won 3/4 at m.c.g[including a 29 pt win over hawthorn in r2]and hawthorn have won 1/7.

last 4 H2H:
R21 2002 KANGAROOS 119-104 @ M.C.G
R 7 2003 KANGAROOS 117-89 @ TELSTRA DOME
R20 2003 HAWTHORN 110-96 @ TELSTRA DOME
R 2 2004 KANGAROOS 103-74 @ M.C.G

FREMANTLE v SWANS

Fremantle have won 7/14 against the swans, winning 5/7 at home,3/4 at subiaco and 2/3 at waca, while the swans have won only 4/15 at subiaco overall.Fremantle have won 5/9 at home this year while the swans have won 2/7 away.

last 4 H2H:
R13 2002 SWANS 139-62 @ S.C.G
R 2 2003 FREMANTLE 86-60 @ SUBIACO
R17 2003 SWANS 111-97 @ S.C.G
R 2 2004 SWANS 102-71 @ S.C.G

BRIS LIONS v ADELAIDE

The lions have won 9/13 against the crows, winning 6/8 at the gabba against them.The lions have won 8/8 at the gabba this year while the crows have won 2/8 away.

last 4 H2H:
QFL 2002 LIONS 115-44 @ GABBA
R 8 2003 LIONS 107-89 @ GABBA
SFL 2003 LIONS 124-82 @ GABBA
R 2 2004 LIONS 104-83 @ AAMI STADIUM

WESTERN BULLDOGS v COLLINGWOOD

W/bulldogs have won 1 of their last 6 against collingwood. This year at telstra dome the bulldogs have lost all 5 there and the pies have won 3/6.

last 4 H2H:
R 7 2002 COLLINGWOOD 73-63 @ TELSTRA DOME
R22 2002 W/BULLDOGS 114-73 @ M.C.G
R13 2003 COLLINGWOOD 128-85 @ TELSTRA DOME
R 2 2004 COLLINGWOOD 106-97 @ M.C.G

PORT ADELAIDE v WEST COAST

Port have won 7/11 against the eagles, winning 3/4 played at aami stadium.Pot have won 8/9 at aami this year[ losing to adelaide]while w/coast have won 2/8 away [against w/bulldogs and hawthorn].

last 4 H2H:
R21 2002 PORT ADEL 103-65 @ SUBIACO
R 1 2003 W/COAST 122-74 @ SUBIACO
R16 2003 PORT ADEL 114-50 @ AAMI STADIUM
R 2 2004 PORT ADEL 118-115 @ SUBIACO

GELLONG v CARLTON

Geelong have won 2 of their last 6 against carlton, with those 2 wins being the only 2 played at telstra dome against them.this year at the dome geelong have won 5/6 while carlton have won 2/3.

last 4 H2H:
R22 2001 CARLTON 97-27 @ OPTUS OVAL
R11 2002 GEELONG 100-96 @ TELSTRA DOME
R11 2003 GEELONG 115-75 @ TELSTRA DOME
R 2 2004 CARLTON 104-50 @ OPTUS OVAL

RICHMOND v MELBOURNE

Richmond have won 5 of their last 6 against melbourne, all being played at the m.c.g. This year at the m.c.g richmond have won 2/5 while melbourne have won 9/10 there, losing to hawthorn in r1 119-70

last 4 H2H:
R 3 2002 RICHMOND 96-76 @ M.C.G
R18 2002 RICHMOND 99-94 @ M.C.G
R 8 2003 RICHMOND 112-103 @ M.C.G
R 2 2004 MELBOURNE 135-76 @ M.C.G

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-07-20 18:24 ]</font>

[moeee]

Apologies to greeting you with a belting Negelsta,but the Bombers in fact played West Coast last week.
Had they won,I would have collected a profit of near $600,so I remember quite well.
And it was failing to provide a centre-half-forward option that was their demise.
Like Newman said,the footy world would have been much better off with Sheedy back at Tigerland.

And the vibe is rising from the gut.No,not the bile.Collingwood versus Western Bulldogs is going to be a blowout,and I really can't see the Dogs in charge.

[rabbitz]

moeee
collingwood to wack the dogs
hmmm
wheres the alka seltzer
cheers

[Mr J]

Moe, we're pretty close on 4.

I have:
St K by 15
Kang by 24
Frem by 19
Port by 37

The bookies agree with us for the above games.

I think Geelong will more more comfortably, that adelaide will push brissie a bit harder. I also have WB covering with the +20.5 on offer. Richmond +37.5 for me.

Yep, this week 3/4 are dogs. The other games my system leaned towards the faves, but the lines weren't nearly enough value to bet.

[moeee]

Well I knocked your Tiger tips twice for a 1 standing of one-all.
I looked at Goldmember's summary and couldn't believe that the Tigers look a chance of winning this game.
Sometimes you just have to throw the numbers in the wheelie bin.I don't know why it is that long odds-on horses run unplaced.But they do.Could be things unaccountable like upset tummy or headache or anger or lack of sleep.
This is when the vibe sorts things out.You just know that Richmond aren't going to get close to the Demons.Well you don't,but I do.

VIBE TIPS
St.Kilda 6
Kangaroos 36
Fremantle 19
Collingwood 36
Port Power 35
Geelong 30
Melbourne 45
Brisbane 26

[Mr J]

Moe, I'm not disagreeing with you here. Richmond may very well may get slaughtered, and I could lose on them yet again.

[goldmember]

Not betting in that game, but all things being equal melb should cover the start, but will they take it easy as the lions have done in a few games lately ?

[goldmember]

Going to tip 2 upsets this week, western bulldogs and carlton

[Mr J]

Tweaked my system for AFL (not in the way you think Moe, haven't taken out worst teams yet). Now hits 59.9% against the spread from '02-'04, 15.88%POT against an average price of 1.91. With line shopping that's 18.68% POT :wink:

Anyway for today I have:
Port -37.5, system says easy win.
Geelong -23.5, system says easy win.
Richmond +38, system says too much, even for richmond.

[Paddy]

Thanks Mr J, sounds like a nice little flutter for the today.

[Mr J]

Well Richmond making me pay again...how could a team be so bad as to lose 1-5 against the spread?

Bottom 4 teams are no bets for me from here on, or at least until I so some testing which shows they are profitable longterm.

[moeee]

Gee I love being right.
I got 3 out of 4 this week Mr J.
Fell over and broke my neck when I suggested Adelaide could get close to the Lions.
I don't know whether you follow the animals,but they have an intangible thing called CLASS.
I think that Footy teams may also have something similar.Like the Brisbane Lions.No other teams seem to have it at the minute,but quite a number seem to have it's opposite.
I think I will be giving Brisbane a 9 point bonus for being Brisbane and a 9 point penalty for Hawthorn,Western Bulldogs and Richmond for being who they are.
Winners keep on winning and losers keep on losing.

[Mr J]

"Winners keep on winning and losers keep on losing."

You couldn't be more wrong there. I'm not talking about winning anyway, I'm talking about covering the spread. Big difference.

[Mr J]

Tweaked my system a little more.

177/290 for 61% in AFL.
208/355 for 58.6% in NRL.

Both up another 1%.

This equates to POT of 18% for AFL and 13% for NRL. This is with all bets at 1.90 and no line shopping. With shopping POT goes up 2% for each.

Going to see if I can get some more seasons data.

[moeee]

Oh,okay.So it's actually winners keep on losing and Losers keep on winning.Hello!.No wonder you keep backing Richmond and Hawthorn.
What we are talking about is being right.At least more right than the person we are betting with.
And if we are not being right in certain areas,we must have some erroneous data.
Tweaking gives you a better POT is excellent.But is your tweaking helping you get on the right track with Richmond and Hawthorn this season?

[Mr J]

Moe you mistunderstood. Winners don't keep winning or losing. It changes. Winners will never always win, and losers will never always lose.

When I said this I wasn't talking about Richmond, just things in general.