tips

[puntz]

I have some time and watching markets from home this week so I may as well post some tips.

It's a combined system,takes 5 minutes to process but I have to watch the market and make a few guesses.

here we go

20040721 AR01
8-1-6


WOOPS
11-8-1-6
SORRYYY

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: puntz on 2004-07-21 11:56 ]</font>

[puntz]

next,
20040721-AR02-1-4-9

[puntz]

MEADOWS (GREYS)
20040721 RACE 2
3-6-2

[puntz]

with the correct staking method, there is profit

bye

[puntz]

where's the profit ?

Bet 1, OK, messed it up cos was type error,but in reality it lost.

The goal is to make in this instance 100 for the day. It can be 500, or 1000, but for simplicity, let's call it $100.00

The cost of bet 1 was approx 55.00, depending which market you choose to bet with.

The selections should have been 11-8-1, 6 came up as the 4th selection but I seldom do 4 selections in one bet.

Bet 2,we still wish to make 100, plus the cost of the previous bet.
so the target is 155.00
Simple arithmetic.

The cost of bet 2, and it won, recovered the previous cost, and made me the target of 100

Bet 3, I lower my target because I won FOR THE DAY ! and was in profit. So bet 3 in fact would have costed me no more than 20, depending on what I choose to make.

The moral.
It's basic arithmetic to create your own staking method. I use 3 runners cos logic says I have 3 chances instead of 1
Perhaps I can just use 1 selection, I know I can. But I am not out to get the winning horse, I am out to profit by winning a race, no matter what runner wins,if it's in my selections,it does not matter, it will profit.

[kenchar]

Puntz,

Sorry to say but thats just a martingale system, you will win days or weeks on end, BUT then the dreaded run of outs will come and you will do your arse.

On another point I am still waiting for an email from you.

Cheers

Kenchar

[puntz]

kenchar, I have sent a email and waited for a reply.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: puntz on 2004-07-21 20:07 ]</font>

[kenchar]

Puntz,
I haven't recieved it????????
Try again

[puntz]

Kenchar

the adress I have is:
your user name on this forum, followed by 2 numbers, then au after the 2nd number @yahoo.com
???

[Merriguy]

Have to agree with Kenchar about your 'simple' system, Puntz. In your effort to return a profit of $155 in the second bet, it would have would have cost about $1330 (using UniTab starting prices on the tote --- I know you could do better, but...), if you dutched all three selections. One of your selections was the odds on favourite.

Of course, you could have left it out, and the cost would have been only about $70.00. But if you do that where is the 'simple' system. 1 out of 3 the favourite wins!

[puntz]

Merrigy

I'll get the sums out later and show basicaly the costs for the 2nd bet. Might be later in the day, have stuff to do.

No it did not cost that much, no where near that amount depending on what you set out to make, or the "target" for the day.

Percentages do play a key role,but what i wanted to show here is an example for those asking on staking plans. There are many,(staking plans) but I believe it is not just selections and staking plans, it goes one step further, and it's strategy controlled by percentage limitations AFTER one has figured out their selection and bet management processes. After the strategy is figured out, then the "cycle" is nearly complete.

[puntz]

this will keep those that are interested busy for a while.


20040721 AR01-11-8-1-6

race start: 12.00 NSW
prices at : 11.59.31 NSW

11 paying :4.20
8 paying :66.10
1 paying :17.00

make 100
cost:?
LOST
return : 0
=====================
next,
20040721-AR02-1-4-9
race start : 12.35 NSW
prices at : 12.34.31 NSW
1 paying : 1.90
4 paying : 3.50
9 paying : 23.50

make : ?
cost : ?
WON
result :4 payed 4.00
next bet: y/n
make ?
======================

MEADOWS (GREYS)
20040721 RACE 2
3-6-2
race start : 12.42 NSW
prices at : 12.41.31 NSW
3 paying : 11.40
6 paying : 6.40
2 paying : 7.60

make : ?
cost : ?
result: 4 payed 7.30
lost :
return : 0
======================
next race......., ?

[Merriguy]

Well, Puntz, using your figures, the cost of winning $155 at those prices for the second race would be $911 (rounded on UniTab). Still a lot to (maybe) win $155.

Leaving out the fav. (which didn't win) it would have been an outlay of $76 (rounded on UniTab). This is, of course, a much better proposition; but, if one of the two had not won, then you would have been seeking $231 with your next bet to win overall $100. When do you stop ???

[puntz]

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: puntz on 2004-07-25 11:26 ]</font>

[Merriguy]

Well I would like to see your calculations, Puntz. Here are mine:

No 1 @ 1.90 Bet $561.58 Return $1067.00 Up $155.16
No 4 @ 3.50 Bet $304.86 Return $1067.01 Up $155.17
No 9 @23.50 Bet $ 45.40 Return $1066.90 Up $155.06

Total outlaid: $911.84

[kenchar]

Puntz,
.au after the .com

[puntz]

OK
bet 2:
we lost in bet 1 to make 100 and the cost was in this case 55
we still want to make our 100 for the day.
So now we need to make 155

1.90 = 123 units
3.50 = 67 units
23.50 = 11 units
total units = 201

4 won and paid 4.00, return
67 multiplied by 4 = 268

less 201 cost, profit, 67

had the fav won,if it paid 1.90 * 123
this equates to : 233.70
less cost of 201.00 ,profit 32.70

[kenchar]

Puntz,
Got it

[Merriguy]

Yes..............But you've moved the goal posts, Puntz!!

[puntz]

summary:
A minor correction,
Quote:
"The cost of bet 2, and it won, recovered the previous cost, and made me the target of 100"

No, it may have not achieved the target of 100, infact I was looking at the wrong column of the spreadsheet, the "what-if" column.An oversight. Aplogies to the purists, if due.

However,the bet proceeded due to the fact a profit could be reached with a runner paying as low as 1.90 had it won.
This particualr bet was not a risk,but bordered on the "bet" or "no bet" due to the fact it had a 1.90 selection, AT THE TIME OF SENDING THE BET.
Starting Price means very little to make calculations and comparison because in reality there is a space of time required to place the bet. So in my opinion many many calculations using starting prices may be,wrong?

A profit so far for the day was reach of approximately 30.00
The next bet is to make 70
Therefore, the cost would be much lower again.

To bet around 911 units, it depends on the size of the bank and what percentage of that bank one chooses to wager to make 1500 in my books.
Calculations tell me the bank would be around 20,000.00 to risk those amounts.

To start as small as targeting 100 per day, you would only may require a start bank of 1000 using a,"simple" system.

Selections,Staking Plan, and YOUR strategy.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: puntz on 2004-07-22 17:07 ]</font>

[puntz]

Merriguy,
what goal posts, can you be a little more specific please.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: puntz on 2004-07-22 17:07 ]</font>

[Merriguy]

Your previous post explains your approach better.

What I was referring to was your: "We still want to make our 100 for the day. So now we need to make 155." (Your topmost post this page.)

[puntz]

yes, but the 1.90 does not allow to do this (make the initial target of 100)on that bet. It can,but it goes beyond one's own set of limits.
Still, let's say the 1.90 was paying(what-if)
a better preffered price,or it was not chosen as a selection, I still go by the respective unit allocation sums.
As for the strategy, a "give and take" on the moment based on percentage limitations,that bet was limit. If it was 1.80 there may have been no profit at all on the given limitations had the favourite won.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: puntz on 2004-07-22 17:49 ]</font>

[good 4th]

Hi,
With my calc's you only made $12 profit so far.
COST 1st bet =$55.00 lost
COST 2nd bet =$201.00 won
Ret $268
Cost$256
p/l $12

Hey i could be wrong..
If so i do apologize.

GD4TH

[puntz]

whatever



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: puntz on 2004-07-24 22:49 ]</font>