Home team wins

[sportznut]

JULY 23:
This week's odds from TAB Sportsbet:

NRL:
4 HOME TEAMS WIN $2.30
5 HOME TEAMS WIN $3.00
3 HOME TEAMS WIN $3.40
2 HOME TEAMS WIN $9.00
6 HOME TEAMS WIN $10.00
1 HOME TEAM WINS $50.00
7 HOME TEAMS WIN $60.00
NO HOME TEAM WINS $500.00

AFL:
5 HOME TEAMS WIN $2.60
6 HOME TEAMS WIN $3.50
4 HOME TEAMS WIN $3.60
3 HOME TEAMS WIN $8.50
7 HOME TEAMS WIN $9.00
2 HOME TEAMS WIN $30.00
8 HOME TEAMS WIN $50.00
1 HOME TEAM WINS $165.00
NO HOME TEAM WINS $250.00

Based on the odds for the individual matches, I actually think that 5 wins should be favourite in the NRL and 6 wins should be favourite in the AFL. What do you think?

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-07-23 09:05 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-07-29 14:52 ]</font>

[moeee]

Hey I see what your saying.
Makes sense.
I shall depart and return with some kind of mathematical solution as to why what looks to be so obvious,is in fact not.
Well spotted again Sportznut.

[moeee]

I'm back.
Sportznut,is this the logic being used here?
Six of the home teams are favourites,therefore the most favoured outcome should be six wins.
If so,then consider if 8 of the home teams were favourites.Would then the most favoured outcome be 8 home teams?
Substitute very slight favourite,instead of favourite and the chances of 8 home wins drops down to as low as 4 wins.
Are we looking at the same forest here,or have I fallen out of my tree?

[sportznut]

Yeah, I understand what you mean. I guess it's all related to probabilities and law of averages. I suppose they're going on the fact that it's very rare for ALL the favourites to win. I'm sure you'll agree that most weeks there is at least ONE upset, and maybe they factored that into their figures. Well, it happened in the NRL. There was ONE upset, so their prediction turned out to be right. In the AFL however, all the favourites won, so my prediction was right.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-07-29 14:23 ]</font>

[sportznut]

JULY 29:

This week you can bet on there being a draw in any game. Looks like there could be some close games in both codes this week, but I still don't think I'd back a draw.

AFL
5 HOME WINS-NO DRAWS $3.00
4 HOME WINS-NO DRAWS $3.20
6 HOME WINS-NO DRAWS $4.75
3 HOME WINS-NO DRAWS $6.00
A DRAW IN ANY GAME $8.00
7 HOME WINS-NO DRAWS $14.00
2 HOME WINS-NO DRAWS $20.00
8 HOME WINS $50.00
1 HOME WIN-NO DRAWS $140.00
NO HOME WINS-NO DRAWS $400.00

NRL
3 HOME WINS-NO DRAWS $2.70
4 HOME WINS-NO DRAWS $3.40
2 HOME WINS-NO DRAWS $3.50
5 HOME WINS-NO DRAWS $7.50
1 HOME WIN-NO DRAWS $9.00
A DRAW IN ANY GAME-IncExTime $17.00
6 HOME WINS-NO DRAWS $30.00
NO HOME WINS-NO DRAWS $40.00
7 HOME WINS $150.00



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-07-29 14:53 ]</font>

[jakelee]

NRL:
4 HOME TEAMS WIN $2.30
5 HOME TEAMS WIN $3.00
3 HOME TEAMS WIN $3.40
2 HOME TEAMS WIN $9.00
6 HOME TEAMS WIN $10.00
1 HOME TEAM WINS $50.00
7 HOME TEAMS WIN $60.00
NO HOME TEAM WINS $500.00



Is that correct? No home teams win $500?

Snap that one up! A multi on all the away teams pays about $40...?

I'm on if it's 501:1.

[sportznut]

They've done the same sort of thing this week. In the NRL, going by odds, 2 home wins should be favourite, not 3. In the AFL, going by the betting, the favourite should be 4 or 5 home wins, so they've got that pretty right.

By the way, I hope the home teams do really well this week because my Homedog system has EIGHT bets!!!


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-07-29 15:22 ]</font>

[sportznut]

Jake, you're looking at LAST WEEK'S odds. This week it IS $40. Bad luck mate, you really thought you found something there!

[jakelee]

Yep, I'm a :goose:.

Thought I might get a free lunch.

[moeee]

Sportznut,for all your wisdom,you a poor mathematician.
Post me a hypothetical set of odds.For example,this weeks AFL prices.In fact don't.I will get the current prices and from these prices will calculate mathematically what the Home wins should be.
And I will be very surprised if I come up with a different set of prices than what you have posted here.

[sportznut]

Mo, I said the AFL was pretty right this week. Going by the betting 4 wins should be just fractionally shorter than 5. They have 5 just fractionally shorter, so no big difference there.

[moeee]

SPORTZNUT.

JULY 29:AFL
5 HOME WINS-NO DRAWS $3.00 $3.38
4 HOME WINS-NO DRAWS $3.20 $3.65
6 HOME WINS-NO DRAWS $4.75 $5.57
3 HOME WINS-NO DRAWS $6.00 $7
7 HOME WINS-NO DRAWS $14.00 $17.50
2 HOME WINS-NO DRAWS $20.00 $26
8 HOME WINS $50.00 $135
1 HOME WIN-NO DRAWS $140 $210
NO HOME WINS-NO DRAWS $400 $4800

Here you go Sportznut.These are the calculated odds according to the prices,beside the available odds.Slightly over due to the bookies take of 15% or so.

Here is something to contemplate.
Imagine in a coming round,every game in the round is an even money chance.
What would be the Home win prices?Answer below.

5 HOME WINS-NO DRAWS $4.55
4 HOME WINS-NO DRAWS $3.65
6 HOME WINS-NO DRAWS $9.10
3 HOME WINS-NO DRAWS $4.55
7 HOME WINS-NO DRAWS $33
2 HOME WINS-NO DRAWS $9.10
8 HOME WINS $50.00 $250
1 HOME WIN-NO DRAWS $33
NO HOME WINS-NO DRAWS $250

And here are the prices based on my calculations using your ratings for this round.(I just editted in my prices after yours with my ratings.)

5 HOME WINS-NO DRAWS $3.30 $3.25
4 HOME WINS-NO DRAWS $4.10 $3.70
6 HOME WINS-NO DRAWS $4.65 $5.20
3 HOME WINS-NO DRAWS $8.90 $7.85
7 HOME WINS-NO DRAWS $12.30 $16.50
2 HOME WINS-NO DRAWS $35 $33
8 HOME WINS $80 $130
1 HOME WIN-NO DRAWS $300 $300
NO HOME WINS-NO DRAWS $6000 $7000

No overs there for you this week Sportznut,even though some of your margins are way different than the bookies.

By the way.where did you see these prices?


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: moeee on 2004-07-31 11:22 ]</font>