Afl Rd 18

[rabbitz]

Adelaide Crows $2.05
Kangaroos $1.72 Friday night AAMI Stadium
Carlton Blues $1.90
Fremantle Dockers $1.90 Sat Arvo Optus oval
Collingwood $1.40
Richmond Tigers $2.85 Sat arvo MCG
Essendon Bumblers $2.25
Port Adelaide Power $1.60 Sat Night Telstra Dome
Sydney Swans $2.85
Brisbane Lions $1.40 Sat Night SCG
Geelong cats $1.75
St Kilda Saints $2 Sun arvo Skilled stadium
Melbourne Demons $1.06
Hawthorn Hawks $8 Sun arvo MCG
West coast Eagles $1.10
Western Bulldogs $6.25 Sun arvo Subiaco
Early Treble
Lions -11.5($1.64)
Demons -41.5($1.85)
West coast -29.5($1.58)
DIVIDEND $4.79
Cheers

[sportznut]

My ratings suggest some VERY close games. I doubt very much that they'll end up quite this close, but it certainly looks like a tougher round to pick than last week:

Kangaroos by 13
Fremantle by 1
Collingwood by 22
Port Adelaide by 2
Brisbane by 2
Geelong by 5
Melbourne by 47
West Coast by 40


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-07-27 10:19 ]</font>

[moeee]

I see it like this.

KANGAROOS 1 ADELAIDE
FREMANTLE 6 CARLTON
COLLINGWOOD 37 RICHMOND
PORT POWER 8 ESSENDON
BRISBANE 23 SYDNEY
GEELONG 7 ST.KILDA
MELBOURNE 55 HAWTHORN
WEST COAST 41 BULLDOGS

[rabbitz]

adelaide $2.05 now $2.15
Roos $1.72 now $1.68
Carlton $1.90 steady
Freo $1.90 steady
pies $1.40 steady
Richmond $2.85 now $2.90
Bumblers $2.25 now $2.30
Port adelaide $1.60 steady
Swans $2.85 now $3
Lions $1.40 now $1.38
Geelong $1.75 steady
Saints $2 now $2.05
Melbourne $1.06 steady
Hawks $8 now $ 8.50
West coast $1.10
Bulldogs $6.25 now $6.65
cheers

[goldmember]

ADELAIDE v KANGAROOS

The crows and kangaroos have 3 wins each from their last 6 clashes, but the crows have won only 1 of their last 6 games against the kangaroos at aami stadium, at home this yaer the crows have won 3/8

last 4 H2H:
R 8 2002 KANGAROOS 110-93 @ MANUKA OVAL
R16 2003 ADELAIDE 124-70 @ TELSTRA DOME
R21 2003 KANGAROOS 74-64 @ AAMI STADIUM
R 1 2004 KANGAROOS 149-74 @ M.C.G

CARLTON v FREMANTLE

Carlton have won 8/13 against fremantle, winning all 4 played at optus oval. At optus oval this year carlton have won 3/5 while fremantle have won 4/7 away.

last 4 H2H:
R16 2001 CARLTON 131-56 @ OPTUS OVAL
R10 2002 FREMANTLE 96-68 @ SUBIACO
R10 2003 FREMANTLE 127-99 @ SUBIACO
R 1 2004 FREMANTLE 107-60 @ SUBIACO

COLLINGWOOD v RICHMOND

Collingwood have only won 6 of their last 18 games at the m.c.g against richmond. At the m.c.g this year the magpies and and tigers both have won 2/7, with richmond beating colligwood in r 1, 97-57.

last 4 H2H:
R16 2002 COLLINGWOOD 89-49 @ M.C.G
R 1 2003 COLLINGWOOD 94-66 @ M.C.G
R16 2003 COLLINGWOOD 131-62 @ M.C.G
R 1 2004 RICHMOND 97-57 @ M.C.G

ESSENDON v PORT ADELAIDE

Essendon have lost their last 6 to port[ 4 at aami], but have won 2/4 at telstra dome against them. This year at telstra dome essendon have won 3/8 while port have won 4/7 away from aami st.Ports only game at the dome this year was a loss to the kangaroos 140-48.

last 4 H2H:
S/F 2002 PORT 83-59 @ AAMI STADIUM
R 9 2003 PORT 146-96 @ TELSTRA DOME
S/F 2003 PORT 83-44 @ AAMI STADIUM
R 1 2004 PORT 158-62 @ AAMI STADIUM

SWANS v BRIS LIONS

The swans have won 4/13 against the lions,winning 2/6 at the s.c.g.This year at the s.c.g the swans have won 6/7[losing to richmond]while the lions have won 4/8 away

last 4 H2H:
R 7 2003 SWANS 98-79 @ S.C.G
R20 2003 SWANS 90-76 @ GABBA
P/F 2003 LIONS 100-56 @ STADIUM AUST.
R 1 2004 LIONS 80-78 @ GABBA

GEELONG v ST KILDA

Geelong have won 5 of their last 7 against st kilda, including the last 4 at skilled stadium. This year at skilled stadium the cats have won 5/5 while st kilda have won only 2/6 away from telstra dome.

last 4 H2H:
R19 2002 GEELONG 102-101 @ TELSTRA DOME
R 5 2003 ST KILDA 119- 74 @ TELSTRA DOME
R22 2003 GEELONG 84- 65 @ SKILLED STADIUM
R 1 2004 ST KILDA 122- 61 @ TELSTRA DOME

MELBOURNE v HAWTHORN

Melb have won 3 of their last 8 against hawthorn. This year at the m.c.g melb have won 10/11[losing to hawthorn in r 1 119-70]while hawthorn have lost their last 7 there after that win.

last 4 H2H:
R16 2002 HAWTHORN 93-67 @ M.C.G
R 1 2003 MELBOURNE 106-100 @ M.C.G
R16 2003 HAWTHORN 113-106 @ M.C.G
R 1 2004 HAWTHORN 119-70 @ M.C.G

WEST COAST v WESTERN BULLDOGS

W/coast have 6 wins + 1 draw from 11 against the bulldogs, with 5 wins + 1 draw from 8 played at subiaco.. This year at subiaco w/coast have won 6/8 while w/bulldogs have won 1/5 interstate [against the kangaroos at manuka 120-119]

last 4 H2H:
R 3 2002 W/COAST 113- 81 @ SUBIACO
R18 2002 W/BULLDOGS 142- 91 @ OPTUS OVAL
R11 2003 DRAW 124/124 @ SUBIACO
R 1 2004 W/COAST 144-137 @ TELSTRA DOME

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-07-28 16:48 ]</font>

[goldmember]

KANGAROOS BY 24
CARLTON BY 6
COLLINGWOOD BY 1
PORT ADEL BY 14
BRIS LIONS BY 14
GEELONG BY 12
MELBOURNE BY 37
W/COAST BY 50

[moeee]

COLLINGWOOD BY A POINT?
Who on earth have you been drinking with Goldmember?
I mean,we all like to be controversial at times,but surely this is a typo.

[rabbitz]

Yeah Goldmember,I agree with Moeee how could Collingwood win by that much
Cheers

[moeee]

Also last week in your stats,Goldmember,It looked as though Richmond had a chance against the Demons.Now it looks like they can beat the Pies.
Hey Rabbitz,remember that gas rising up my oesophagus last week.Well I'm not sure if it's happening again,but I'll tell you something that I am sure about.Hawthorn knocked off the Demons in round 1 this year.
Everybody note.You read it here first.Isn't that right Goldmember?
Car'n the Pies.

[rabbitz]

Moeee What odds would you like about hawthorn knocking off melbourne
1.50-1
2.100-1
3.1000-1
4.An oesophageal transplant
5.A weeks accomodation at The Royal Park Hospital
Only one selection is allowed.
Cheers
P.S. Selections 4 and 5 have been most popular in our phone poll so far

[moeee]

Well my Multis will have Collingwood at -20.5 @ about $2.02,but the way they are being backed,Fridays price will be more like -26.5.
Oh well.Like Rex Hunt says,"you can only catch the fish that are there".

[Mr J]

Rabbitz, are you offering to pay me at
1000-1??????;)

Less than 50-1.

[sportznut]

Honesty time: After that game 1 this year, I actually thought about backing Hawthorn for the top 8. Luckily, I decided to hold off for a game or two. GOOD DECISION!!!

By the way, in my pre-season predictions, I had Collingwood finishing 2nd!!! That's one prediction I'm SO GLAD went terribly wrong.

This was the way I predicted the ladder would be after the home and away season:
1 Port Adel
2 Collingwood
3 Brisbane
4 St Kilda
5 West Coast
6 Essendon
7 Sydney
8 Fremantle
9 Hawthorn
10 Geelong
11 Adelaide
12 Kangaroos
13 Richmond
14 Melbourne
15 Carlton
16 W.Bulldogs

Well, I guess I had 3 of the top 4 right, and most of the teams are reasonably close, but look where I had Melbourne and Geelong. I should have taken more notice of the pre-season form. And as usual, I under-rated the Kangaroos. West Coast have been disappointing, although I wasn't to know they would lose Gardiner. That's made a big difference I think.

Anybody else have some opinions earlier in the year that have turned out to be totally ridiculous. Come on, own up. :smile:


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-07-29 08:37 ]</font>

[rabbitz]

O.K. Mr J is down for 1000-1
Anybody else
cheers

[moeee]

Gee Sportznut.You must have read Mofo's post and copped guilt feelings big time.
In all seriousness,I think it's good to see that other people don't seem to get it right all the time.
I have a heap of useless St.Kilda for the 2004 Premiership tickets.
What I have learnt this year,is it is very hard to tell whether you are getting overs the earlier from the event,you place your bet.
Stick your head out the window and their is a good chance of predicting todays weather correctly.What about weekends weather.No chance.
I have now limited my betting to Home and away games and am killing them.
Could be the Law of Averages making up for all my losses upto Round 14.I hope it's more that I have learnt something by sharing Knowledge with others who can see the forest without the trees getting in the way.

[sportznut]

Mo, I'm not going to say 'I told you so' or anything, but remember at the time that I couldn't really understand why you kept on betting on St Kilda week after week, when I thought one bet was enough.

Anyway, St Kilda can still win this year you know, and I'm quite happy with my ONE bet at $8. Mind you, I'm also happy that I got on Brisbane when they got out to $3.85. With all of my other futures bets, including final 8 and quinella bets, I'm not looking too bad this year.

Mo, won't you do pretty well if the Kangaroos make the 8? I'm pretty sure you mentioned backing them along with St Kilda and Geelong to make the finals.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-07-29 11:09 ]</font>

[moeee]

Thanks Sportznut for your support.
I suppose stubbornness is an essential part of an addicted gambler,and taking well meaning advice immediately is quite difficult.
I can't count how many times of made similar mistakes in my gambling.
DISCIPLINE.
I'm a hypocrite in that I suggest what others should do,without having the will power to do them myself.
But that doesn't make my suggestions invalid.
What I have found,is that participating in this forum and putting the words down in front,makes it sink in.

[goldmember]

Moeee, those melb /richmond stats were what happened in past games, not my thoughts as i never gave richmond any chance in that game.
As for the collingwood / richmond game this week thats only my tip BECAUSE IM NOT THAT DESPARATE TO BET ON THAT GAME as i have backed collingwood a few times when i thought they could win and the BLUDGERS threw the towel in, i couldn't tip richmond, and the pies are CRAP, i nearly tipped a draw and changed my mind, so i dont give a shit who wins as i bypassing the game altogether.

cheers

[moeee]

Yes I understand about the stats,Goldmember,but it wouldn't be hard,after the game,if Richmond won,to show via the stats why they did.But they won't,as they didn't last week.
So what I'm saying is that the stats are what they are.Whether you attach great importance to them is a skill we all need.
Like Sydney's ability to run well with the Lions,shows up in the stats,so I would be wary of taking too large a minus with Brisbane.But with the Tigers,all the dramas surrounding the club far outweighs the stats and in fact negates any use of them in analysing that game.
I have heard a rumour that you either love or hate Collingwood.Goldmember,do you have any knowledge about this?

[goldmember]

I had followed collingwood since 1980, but since betting on games from 2001 i have no favourites when putting my money on, but i do like watching port and the lions play, as i have heard essendon and recently collingwood are teams you love to hate as were manly and now the roosters are in the rugby league.

[goldmember]

Moeee, who have you been drinking with, how could anyone tip collingwood by 20 or 30 or more, even against richmond, havent you guys been watching them this year, there hopeless, i thought it was shit [pies] playing crap[tigers]and would be a mess, only tipping the pies by 1 for the sake of a tip, as ive been burnt by them bludgers once too many times before, learnt my lesson earlier,hope others wont fall into them again, couldnt believe the pies player running 100m without bouncing the ball ?, what a wanker, and the tigers player right in front late in the game and amissing?, a draw would have been a good result.

cheers

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-07-31 17:18 ]</font>

[moeee]

You are very cheeky Goldmember.
Last week I remarked something similar about your tip of Sydney to beat Fremantle comfortably.
You remained well hidden until the wind died down.
Now you come and attack me.Come on.Play fair.
I let you off the hook last time.
I think when neither team has a chance of finals action,strange things happen.
But then again,probably the strangest game occurred on Friday night.And that involved a Finals contender.
By the way,I really did think it was a typo.

[goldmember]

Fair enough moeee, wasnt a typo, i was having a little snigger while writing it, couldnt resist it as i copped some flak previously for some tips.

cheers

[goldmember]

Didn't know they played this much australian rules over seas, stumbled across these countries:

GERMANY 2 teams
JAPAN 4 teams
DENMARK 5 teams
IRELAND 5 teams
CANADA 6 teams
ENGLAND 9 teams
NORTH AMERICA 29 teams

moeee the only thing bigger than your stomach is your ego.

Why get so competitive???

[goldmember]

" its only a game " after all, LOL

[sportznut]

Homedog system results so far this weekend:
AFL Adelaide (+8.5) WON
AFL Essendon (+11.5) WON
AFL Sydney (+21.5) WON
NRL Sharks (+7.5) WON
NRL N.Qld (+5.5) WON

Another 3 system bets to go this weekend, but I'm already in front even if they all lose, especially as I had a bit of the $3.25 outright on the Swans. I told you how well the Swans go against Brisbane. That result was no shock to me at all.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-08-01 04:01 ]</font>

[Mr J]

None of those AFL dogs are a shock to me. I had them all as faves.

Thought the Sharks line was about right though, and had the cowboys only losing by 1.

[sportznut]

Well, the system had 6 wins from 8 bets this weekend. A bit better than I was actually expecting when I looked at this week's matches.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-08-01 17:05 ]</font>

[Mr J]

5-3 for me this week in AFL. A bit lucky that Geelong and West Coast covered in the end, but you could also say I was unlucky collingwood and melbourne didn't cover...

Ah well.