Gamblers fallicy?

[Mofo]

Is this a fallicy?

This weekend the NSW lottery is worth $18 million. Nice dream eh? Now I know that the odds are aproximately a bizillion to one to actually win, but equally - the chances of earning that kind of money through my career are also at around that mark.

A bizillion to one is a very small chance, yet it is a chance greater than zero.

It wont break the bank to get, say, nine numbers... sooooooo therefore it is a worthy investment.

[jakelee]

Hello mofo,

Your chances of getting all six numbers are 8,145,060:1

I assume that when you say 'nine numbers' you mean a Systems 9. That means picking 9 numbers on one form - which is equivalent to playing 84 combinations, at a cost of $39.50 (which would cost you $43.05 is you played 84 separate games, so Systems are better value).

So you've now reduced your odds of winning the lotto to 96,965:1. Much better, but still a longshot.

One game: 8,145,060:1
System 7: 1,163,580:1
System 8: 290,895:1
System 9: 96,965:1
System 10: 38,786:1 ($97.50) - $0.4642 per game
System 11: 17,630 ($214)
System 12: 8,815 ($426)
System 13: 4,746 ($790)
System 14: 2,712 ($1,382.25)
...
System 18: 438:1 ($8,568.00) - $0.4615 per game

So, if you're willing to shell out over eight grand, you can reduce your chances to 438:1. Now, that's just for the top prize. You can collect lower divisions with a systems play.

The one problem with large draws, is that *everyone* buys a ticket, so unless you are the lucky stiff who picks all the numbers, and doesn't have to share with anyone else, the lower divisions tend to be rather poor payouts as many people get some numbers.

Good investment?

Let's say you took that $39.50, and invested it for an annual return of 10% per annum. Now, instead of buying a $39.50 lottery ticke t eveyweek, you deposit into your investment. What would you have after 25 years? The surprising amount of $175,625.73. At odds of 1:1. The amount is even more if you calculate the interest monthly rather than yearly.

But it's a pretty boring way to earn $175,000 and interest rates do vary... plus bank fees... management fees... tax...


Jake.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: jakelee on 2004-07-28 17:08 ]</font>

[Mofo]

Plus, in 25 years I'll be an old codger. I want my Ferrari now... Actually - considering the price of a Ferrari I'd have to save for about 75 years! Crikey.

OK, so a systems 9 costs $39.50.

Lets say odds are 1 in 100,000 to win with 9 numbers. So I'd guess to win outright without sharing anything (yes I'm a greedy bugger) would be about 1 in 500,000?

Now, my bank balance minus $39.50 isn't going to affect me too much. Well, I'll learn to live without it anyway.

But... my bank balance + $18mil would change my life for ever. 1 in 500,000. I think it's worth the risk. Plus I get to dream about my Ferrari for a few more days.



Ahhh, what the heck - if I win I'll buy you guys a car too.





maybe a Kia Rio...



second hand....



...to share.

And, oh yeah - fallicy is spelt fallacy.

[moeee]

I think in this case this whole thread is pure phallussy.

[jimmyc_dogs]

On 2004-07-28 16:59, jakelee wrote:
Hello mofo,

Your chances of getting all six numbers are 8,145,060:1

I assume that when you say 'nine numbers' you mean a Systems 9. That means picking 9 numbers on one form - which is equivalent to playing 84 combinations, at a cost of $39.50 (which would cost you $43.05 is you played 84 separate games, so Systems are better value).

So you've now reduced your odds of winning the lotto to 96,965:1. Much better, but still a longshot.

One game: 8,145,060:1
System 7: 1,163,580:1
System 8: 290,895:1
System 9: 96,965:1
System 10: 38,786:1 ($97.50) - $0.4642 per game
System 11: 17,630 ($214)
System 12: 8,815 ($426)
System 13: 4,746 ($790)
System 14: 2,712 ($1,382.25)
...
System 18: 438:1 ($8,568.00) - $0.4615 per game

So, if you're willing to shell out over eight grand, you can reduce your chances to 438:1. Now, that's just for the top prize. You can collect lower divisions with a systems play.

The one problem with large draws, is that *everyone* buys a ticket, so unless you are the lucky stiff who picks all the numbers, and doesn't have to share with anyone else, the lower divisions tend to be rather poor payouts as many people get some numbers.

Good investment?

Let's say you took that $39.50, and invested it for an annual return of 10% per annum. Now, instead of buying a $39.50 lottery ticke t eveyweek, you deposit into your investment. What would you have after 25 years? The surprising amount of $175,625.73. At odds of 1:1. The amount is even more if you calculate the interest monthly rather than yearly.

But it's a pretty boring way to earn $175,000 and interest rates do vary... plus bank fees... management fees... tax...


Jake.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: jakelee on 2004-07-28 17:08 ]</font>





ive had 2 much 2 drink 2 read that,............ so ill wait till tomorrow


jimmy :smile:

[Mofo]

On 2004-07-28 19:07, moeee wrote:
I think in this case this whole thread is pure phallussy.



Or is it phalli ?

[moeee]

On 2004-07-29 10:02, Mofo wrote:
Or is it phalli ?


Misspelt again Mojo.It's folly.