AFL Bets Round 18

<< Melbourne vs. Hawthorn >>
Margin Betting
MELBOURNE OVER 39.5 Pts ($1.50)
$200 = $300 ($100 profit)

Line Betting
MELBOURNE -48.5Pts ($1.85)
$100 = $185 (85 profit)

---------------------------------

<< Adelaide vs. Kangaroos >>
Margin Betting
KANGAROOS UNDER 39.5 Pts ($2.25)
$50 = $112.50 ($62.50 profit)

---------------------------------

<< Carlton vs. Fremantle >>
Tri bet
EITHER TEAM UNDER 15.5 Pts ($3.15)
$50 = $157.50 ($107.50 profit)

EASY MONEY CZAR's TIP OF THE WEEK:
Have you got $200 spare? Do this and you'll make $40/$45 profit. Bet $100 on each of these.

FREMANTLE UNDER 39.5 Pts ($2.40)
CARLTON UNDER 39.5 Pts ($2.45)
----------------------------------

<< Collingwood vs. Richmond >>
Margin Betting
COLLINGWOOD UNDER 39.5 Pts ($2.25)
$40 = $90 ($50 profit)

----------------------------------

<< West Coast vs. Western Bulldogs >>
WST BULLDOGS +46.5Pts ($1.85)
$100 = $185 ($85 profit)

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: czar on 2004-07-29 19:30 ]</font>

[moeee]

I love a challenge.Especially against good opposition.
I would like to suggest that you started off well with your selections,but are going to give back any profits with your last two.
Why?
Collingwood easily and Bulldogs need more help than that.

[goldmember]

Czar, you can get the pies $2.30 1-39 on sport odds, is the $2.25 you get, on sportsbet from the golden west. hmmm ???

[rabbitz]

Czar
Answer honestly now
Have you ever recommended to anyone to put $300 on france to beat Greece @ odds of $1.15
in recent Euro 2004
If you haven't I apoligise but if you have welcome back P****o Where ya been
Cheers

[rabbitz]

Big Multi for the week
Brisbane Lions -90.5
Geelong Cats -80.5
West Coast -124.5
Melbourne Dees -134.5
Dividend $7,355,322
Cheers
Also
Pies -17.5
Port Power -11.5
Lions -17.5
Demons -41.5
West Coast -41.5
Dividend $16.50
(this is a small saver in case the first one doesn't get up)
Cheers
P.S. I miss Primo and Floydy boy and their witty repartee

[Baloo]

Listen y'all - especially u czar...
1. Why so rude to moe?
2. Why not take my "safer" option of a multi on Pies/Eagles/Demons...$200 on that will net you $128 PROFIT.
Please explain.

I do not seek abuse nor give it.

You may criticise the bets I have made, you are free to.

Just don't tell me what's what.

[Mr J]

Sportznut or anyone else who can help me on this:

I need a website that lists all scores for previous seasons going back at least a decade, more would be better.

I already know about stats.rleague.com, just wondering if there is a site like it that has the home & away teams in seperate columns, like the way they set out NRL.

[rabbitz]

Mr J
I found results for 1996 just by putting in Afl results 1996 in search engine(google)
I havent found a specific site although there is probably one
The Afl website goes back 2-3 years
Cheers

[rabbitz]

I have continually put my neck out with tips ,and continually get advice that I could find contrary to what I believe but in the end your putting down the money on what you think would happen.We all win and we all lose
Some things are out of your control.Video refs give and take tries whenever they want in the NRL,which could mean 6 pts they would have saved your bet or lost it,whatever.
I dont give a shit what anyone thinks about my tips ,I respect their opinion but you dont have to react to it.
So keep it in mind.When someone goes against your tip ,just say to yourself.Ahhh one more prat on the forum,but just think that,what you say is thankyou Moeee,
thankyou Sportznut,Thankyou Rabbitz(from the bottom of my heart)
Cheers



_________________


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: quapi on 2004-07-31 17:01 ]</font>

[sportznut]

Mr J,

I've had a bit of a look and I don't think you can get any better than the one you mentioned:

http://stats.rleague.com/afl/seas/season_idx.html

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-07-30 08:48 ]</font>

[sportznut]

Rabbitz,

I never have a go at anyone over their tips. I may certainly disagree with them, but I would never be critical of anyone whose tips are different to mine. Everyone is entitled to their opinion and if we all picked the same teams and the same margins each week, it would be pretty boring, wouldn't it?

[breadman]

Now now now boys. Settle down and try to become men for once in your lives. This is a site where opinions are always going to be different so just take the good with bad and get on with life.

[rabbitz]

Sportz
I didnt exactly mean have a go I mean oh you know,"careful there sydney cause Brisbane trouble in Sydney.That sort of thing and yes I agree it would be boring,some of us bet with a heres hoping attitude,some with the stats say this or that and then others a bit of both
cheers
P.S. How much are you putting on the rabbitohs as bet of the week ,eh sportz

[moeee]

Hey everyone,except Czar,who's not welcome to comment as usual,(gooday Floydyboy,welcome back sorely missed)I've just been visited by the Vibe.
The story goes like this.
There's this Lions fan named Rabbitz.And he is seriously considering attending the Saints v Lions game later this year.
Now this would involve considerable travel from Snapperover Island to the Gabba,so he must be expecting a huge game.
For the Saints to put on a show worth travelling such a distance,surely they must be capable of knocking off the Cats this weekend.

[Mr J]

Can anyone explain why the only 50% of home games where won in 2001?

The top teams must have been unusually strong (or the bottom teams even more shocking). Every other year home teams have won significantly more.

[Mr J]

First AFL bet for me this weekend is
Adelaide +8.5

[Floydyboy]

Thanks mo cheers ....thinking of going to that one myself but i havent checked my golf schedule yet.... the gabbas only round the corner (well less than 5ks round the corner )from my place ....Ive got till Sunday to make up my mind to back the saints or not then again if I back the broncs first they might get beat and make my mind up for me ...I wont be having any more bets this weekend and a word of warning for those with their tails up after winning last week .... Blind Freddy could have picked the card last week so be careful
Thank you Rabbitz Thank you Moeee Thank you Sportz Thank you Goldmember ....From the heart of my bottom





<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Floydyboy on 2004-07-30 14:27 ]</font>

[moeee]

Now there's a ring of confidence,Floydyboy.

rabbitz I am unaware of your relationship with moe but from what I have read it seems intimate and I do not want to interfere with your affairs.

However, I said moe is nobody because he said this..
"WHO AM I?
Go to the thread called "Mo's Roll-your-own selections.2004".Then read.
That's who am I."

Well to me he is nobody.

As for moe, you have a lot of nerve to say I am not welcome to comment (as usual?) - your post is being reported to administrators of these boards and they will sort the situation out themselves.

Any more disrespectful or abusive comments and I expect you will be banned - then nobody will have to deal with your negative attitude and comments.

[rabbitz]

Czar?/Primo?Twat? one and the same!!!

[goldmember]

MR J, have a look at http://www.footyform.com.au
they also have separated teams records at a ground + going back 13-15 years, plus tell you if they were day or night games [ if you want that info] and their prices of their last 4 clashes, not quite sure exactly if thats what your looking for or not .

cheers

[moeee]

CZAR.
I have managed to chalk up quite a few posts in my time on this forum.
I have been abused by the best.We have had a string of shady characters in recent weeks that management put in their place.
When I first started posting,I thought Mr J was a trouble maker,but with experience of who's who in the zoo I now know that he is very generous in sharing his knowledge.And so am I.
I offer the white flag to you Czar.Do you accept?

<< Adelaide vs. Kangaroos >>
Margin Betting
KANGAROOS UNDER 39.5 Pts ($2.25)
$50 = $112.50 ($62.50 profit)
= LOST $50
Adelaide by 7 pts. Big upset but it's not too surprising, Kangaroos are inconsistent and so are Adelaide.

[Mr J]

Not everyone thought it was an upset, I had Adelaide as faves :wink:

Anyway, for tomorrow:
Essendon +11.5 at 2.16
Sydney +23.5
Carlton 1.95
Collingwood -19.5.

I wonder what the odds would have been for 'no goals scored' in the 2nd quarter.

This must be the worst possible week for AFL gamblers. I wanted to sit out but felt obliged to prove consistent.

I'm glad I chose not to bet on Sydney vs. Brisbane and Essendon vs. Port.

I was tempted to bet on Sydney but decided it wasn't worth risking. One thing we should all remember; Sydney perform very well when it comes to the big matches. Just look at them when they played St Kilda.

[Mr J]

Sydney and Essendon were not upsets. Richmond giving Collingwood such a good run, and Fremantle blowing Carlton were upsets.

Anyway today I'm on all faves:
Geelong -6.5
Melbourne -47.5 at 2.04
West Coast -44.5 at 2.00

Have Geelong by 3-4 goals, and the other two winning VERY easily, like they were playing a schoolboy side.

[moeee]

Take it from me,Mr J.Sydney knocking off the awesome Lions was an upset.
Crunching the numbers does not reveal the true meaning of the result.
Look at Friday nights result of Adelaide winning by seven points.
It described mothing of the 2nd worst game in AFL history.

[goldmember]

I think the swans were a minor upset,only because of the prices they were, but essendon over port was a REAL upset.

[goldmember]

Moeee, didnt see the crows-roos game, how come it was a low scoring game, raining ? windy? shitty ? or did they forget there was 4 quarters and not 2.

[moeee]

I heard a story that a gust of wind came up at the beach one time and lifted up one of those umbrellas.It coming down point first and piercing someones chest and killing them.
It's like that Goldmember.SHIT HAPPENS.
If that blonde feller hadn't kicked that goal in the last minute for Collingwood,this weeks AFL results would have been remarkable 5 times so far.
All results this week need to be thrown in the wheelie bin.Not to be used as a base run rating.

[goldmember]

???

[moeee]

Goldmember.Take it from me.You don't wanna know.If you want to see a replay,go watch the under 12's at your local ground next Sunday morning.The girls division.

[goldmember]

Only had bets involving 2 afl teams this week, had a gut feeling, and only took kangaroos + 25.5 and w/coast -6.5 into the rugby league, glad i did after some results so far, so i might cut back on the aerial ping pong bets until the finals come, teams are toooo inconsistant.

[goldmember]

Moeee, hope the saints win now, cant stand to see those toffs melbourne on top, I'LL DO MYSELF IN, wheres the rope.

[moeee]

And that's the very reason some people(read Kiwiguy) think they can beat roulette.By skipping some spins.
Next week could be,by the Law of Averages,where everything just falls into place.Last week was predictable to most people.

[goldmember]

Yeah i realize that but i'll still go easy for the next couple of weeks anyway, dont want to start losing this close to the finals, protect the bank THEN let loose, little fish are sweet at the moment.

[rabbitz]

OK for today
Cats 1-39
Melbourne Dees 40+
Westcoast -47.5
Souths 1-12
Raider 1-12
Roosters 1-12
Dividend
$93.15

<< Melbourne vs. Hawthorn >>
Margin Betting
MELBOURNE OVER 39.5 Pts ($1.50)
$200 = $300 ($100 profit)
=WON $300

Line Betting
MELBOURNE -48.5Pts ($1.85)
$100 = $185 (85 profit)
= LOST $100
(they won by 44)

---------------------------------

<< Adelaide vs. Kangaroos >>
Margin Betting
KANGAROOS UNDER 39.5 Pts ($2.25)
$50 = $112.50 ($62.50 profit)
=LOST $50
---------------------------------

<< Carlton vs. Fremantle >>
Tri bet
EITHER TEAM UNDER 15.5 Pts ($3.15)
$50 = $157.50 ($107.50 profit)
= LOST $50

EASY MONEY CZAR's TIP OF THE WEEK:
Have you got $200 spare? Do this and you'll make $40/$45 profit. Bet $100 on each of these.

FREMANTLE UNDER 39.5 Pts ($2.40)
CARLTON UNDER 39.5 Pts ($2.45)
= BOTH LOST - won't happen again.
----------------------------------

<< Collingwood vs. Richmond >>
Margin Betting
COLLINGWOOD UNDER 39.5 Pts ($2.25)
$40 = $90 ($50 profit)
= WON $90
----------------------------------

<< West Coast vs. Western Bulldogs >>
WST BULLDOGS +46.5Pts ($1.85)
$100 = $185 ($85 profit)
= LOST $100 (they won by 49)

TOTAL BETS: $540 worth
RETURNED: $390
TOTAL SUM LOST: $150
Not too bad since I did well last week.

[moeee]

By my reckoning,
$200+$100+$50+$50+$100+$100+$40+$100=$740
Total sum loss of $350.OUCH!
But then again it's been said that I'm a nobody.

[Baloo]

nobody said tipping winners was easy!

[rabbitz]

Moeee,since my appeal is still pending and the czar is at fanny bay for the darwin cup
chasing his $350,I would just like to say that you are somebody,a bit wet behind the ears(from all the rain)but nonetheless
someone.How good were the cats yesterday
There going real well,if they dont win this year how about next year? or at least 2006
once the lions have won 5 straight and got bored
cheers

[sportznut]

I wish you'd stop talking about the Lions as if they are over the line! As another Lions supporter, I feel you are doing your damn best to jinx them!!! :smile:


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-08-02 11:44 ]</font>

[Mr J]

This weeks results should be thrown in the wheelie bin? Moe what are you talking about? No team is invincible, and on occasion even the worst teams step up. Brisbane should never have been 20 pt faves anyway.

As far as sports being predictable, well it isn't. That simple fact is why most people can't BEAT sports.

[goldmember]

Agree with you there MR J, the lions always have trouble with the swans and i thought the 20pts was too much [in sydney]and the same for 2 struggling clubs collinwood and richmond, again 20 pts seemed too much, i think the bookies are still rating them on last years form [with the pies being grand finalists] and not on FORM this year, i know richmond are ordinary but so are collingwood.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-08-02 13:52 ]</font>

[moeee]

We collect data and use said data to forecast future events.This weekends results results were BULLSHIT.Don't tell me the Swans a a 4 goal better team than the Lions.And,whatever you do Mr J,don't tell it to the bookies or they will take you to the cleaners.
There is no point in analyzing the weekends results to gain knowledge.Mr J.I think your missus puts too much starch in your shirts.Bend a little bit.Yes I know Ajax was beaten at 40 to 1 on,but we don't have to dwell on it.
A mechanical approach to AFL is very dangerous.I've been doing it for over 10 years and my profit in that time is not what the system says they should be.How do you input emotion into your system.Not easy.But it is possibly the main ingredient as to how results pan out.
But a winning system is a winning system,and if you have more money now than you had prior to Round 1,keep on keeping on.But remember there are more ways than one of skinning a cat.Or a Rabbit.

[goldmember]

Moeee, J didn't say the swans were a 4 goal better side, he had them + 23.5 wich i thought was a good bet also,i thought the lions would just beat them, but thats old news now, lets think about next week.

[Mr J]

Moe, Brisbane might be an awesome team but they didn't deserve a start that large.

As to 'emotion', that is the last thing you should be using when you bet. Any gut feelings, emotions etc should be locked deep inside you.

A 'mechanical' system can still include things like motivation, injuries, weather etc. It can include everything it needs to. It should never include your emotions.

By emotion I assume you mean something like "team X has been playing very well, but I just think today they will get their asses kicked". Thoughts/views are useless unless you have an angle or data to back them up.

If you said something like "team X has been playing very well, but a few straight games on the road and a few key injuries will take it's toll. Against a full strength class side they will struggle" now that's acceptable :wink: That's using info to come up with your opinion, which means it is an informed opinion. Uninformed opinions just won't make money in sports. These include 'emotion' and gut feelings.

[moeee]

Emotion means for example.
Boys!.The coach has just been sacked.He deserves better than that.Let's do it for Schwabby!.

[Mr J]

That's motivation...

[moeee]

Not if you dislike Schwabby.