Back the Roosters, Back Against Souths from Round 1

[jakelee]

A Quick look at perpetual Back the Favourite, Bet Against the Underdog in the NRL based on Round 1 Permiership Odds

What would have happened, if at the start of the season, you (well, me) decided to back the favorites in for every round (ie, Back the Roosters in every game they play), and back to opposition of the underdogs (ie, Back anyone playing Souths)? And, yeah I know this is hindsight, but I thought you guys might like to see the results.

Let's see (we'll use TAB odds, but you can get better odds on the favourite from other places). The staking plan I used is betting enough money to return $100 on a win, rather than a flat bet each match.

Back the Roosters in every Round

<pre>
Round Odds Result Bet Profit
1 1.06 W $94.34 $5.66
2 1.31 W $76.34 $23.66
3 1.72 W $58.14 $41.86
4 1.67 L $59.88 -$59.88
5 1.57 L $63.69 -$63.69
6 1.51 W $66.23 $33.77
7 1.67 W $59.88 $40.12
8 1.31 W $76.34 $23.66
9 1.12 W $89.29 $10.71
10 1.45 W $68.97 $31.03
11 0 B $0.00 $0.00
12 1.21 W $82.64 $17.36
13 1.62 L $61.73 -$61.73
14 0 B $0.00 $0.00
15 1.21 W $82.64 $17.36
16 1.18 W $84.75 $15.25

17 1.28 W $78.13 $21.88
18 1.31 L $76.34 -$76.34
19 1.4 W $71.43 $28.57
20 1.11 W $90.09 $9.91
21 1.45 W $68.97 $31.03

Total Profit: $90.21 (6% return)
</pre>

A tough way to get a 6% return. But better than a 21 week bank deposit.

As you can see, the Roosters are a pretty good bet when there odds are under $1.56.

Back Against Souths in every Round
Odds=Opposition Odds, Result=Result for Opposition
<pre>
Round Odds Result Bet Profit
1 1.06 W $94.34 $5.66
2 1.51 L $66.23 -$66.23
3 0 B $0.00 $0.00
4 1.51 L $66.23 -$66.23
5 1.36 W $73.53 $26.47
6 1.18 W $84.75 $15.25
7 1.07 W $93.46 $6.54
8 1.11 W $90.09 $9.91
9 1.05 W $95.24 $4.76
10 1.4 W $71.43 $28.57
11 1.45 W $68.97 $31.03
12 1.12 W $89.29 $10.71
13 0 B $0.00 $0.00
14 1.18 L $84.75 -$84.75
15 1.4 W $71.43 $28.57
16 1.16 W $86.21 $13.79
17 1.24 W $80.65 $19.35
18 1.18 L $84.75 -$84.75
19 1.51 W $66.23 $33.77
20 1.11 W $90.09 $9.91
21 1.45 W $68.97 $31.03

Total Profit: -$26.58 (2% loss)
</pre>
So, a slight loss on betting against the Bunnies.



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: jakelee on 2004-08-03 15:31 ]</font>

[rabbitz]

Very interesting
Having been a bunnies supporter since 1971,yes I am that old or was very young.Anyway I,m glad that they are not such easy touchs for the punters in this country
Well Done
Cheers

[Mr J]

Despite the record above, I'd strongly advise anyone against blindly backing the top teams.

[jakelee]

Hi Rabbitz,

Souths have been getting better every round. I would love them to avoid the spoon this year... That would be a victory.

The teams that have been overrated this year, from most overrated:

1. Warriors (really given up this year)
2. Eels (played one of the worst games I've ever seen last weekend - except for the full back, who made the most hit-ups of both teams!)
3. Canberra (played well, but not up to what was expected)
4. Cowboys (getting much better now, but expected to do much better)
5. Dragons (haha... which team is gonna turn up?)


Mr. J -
I agree. The best bets are finding a team that is either on the way up, or on the way down. Last year I cleaned up on the Panthers from very early on (there was so much bad ju-ju about them), and this year the Warriors have done well for me (betting against).

They're tough to find though, and it's not every year you get a Penrith or a Warriors.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: jakelee on 2004-08-03 19:59 ]</font>

[mug punta]

Gday JAKELEE, Dont know if you have the info available, but what would the profit/loss be if you backed those two teams at the line for the year so far?

[jakelee]

Sure, I have all the info available.

I am doing some more analysis...

The info you want though can be obtained in Big League. There is a section that shows how many times each team has covered the start. All you need to do is work out your return if you blindly followed one team with the start.

It's quite interesting, as (approx.) 50% of games are 1-10 margins, 25% of games are 11-20 and 25% are 21+. Which makes you wonder because the average absolute start is about 7.5. So theoretically, you can make better returns by rolling your own start. I'm still looking into this, as roll-your-owns are fairly new.