AFL R19

[goldmember]

FREMANTLE v COLLINGWOOD

Fremantle have won only 4/12 against collingwood, winning 2/3 at home[1/1 at waca-1/2 at subiaco].Fremantle have won 6/10 at home this year while the pies have lost all 3 interstate games[lions/port/swans].

last 4 H2H:
R17 2001 COLLINGWOOD 119-90 @ SUBIACO
R12 2002 FREMANTLE 90-79 @ SUBIACO
R17 2003 COLLINGWOOD 99-58 @ M.C.G
R 4 2004 FREMANTLE 88-54 @ TELSTRA DOME

LST KILDA v ADELAIDE

The saints have won 3 of their last 10 against the crows, and have won 2/7 away from telstra dome this year,losing their last 5[ mcg,scg,york pk,mcg and skilled stadium]while adel have won 2/7 interstate games [hawthorn,richmond].Saints have won 1/3 at york park,beating w/bulldogs, while adel lost their only game there to hawthorn.

last 4 H2H:
R15 2002 ADELAIDE 99-81 @ AAMI STADIUM
R 2 2003 STKILDA 99-91 @ TELSTRA DOME
R17 2003 ADELAIDE 143-86 @ AAMI STADIUM
R 4 2004 STKILDA 113-98 @ AAMI STADIUM

ESSENDON v CARLTON

Essendon have won 4 of their last 5 against carlton, essendon have won 5/6 at the m.c.g this year while carlton have won1/4 there.

last 4 H2H:
R22 2002 ESSENDON 92-37 @ M.C.G
R 3 2003 CARLTON 105-94 @ M.C.G
R18 2003 ESSENDON 90-56 @ M.C.G
R 4 2004 ESSENDON 117-80 @ M.C.G

SWANS v KANGAROOS

The swans have won 6 of their last 7 against the kangaroos,including the last 5 played at the s.c.g.The swans have won 7/8 at the s.c.g this year while the roos have won 2/5 interstate.

last 4 H2H:
R 4 2002 SWANS 103-100 @ S.C.G
R19 2002 SWANS 144-97 @ S.C.G
R 9 2003 KANGAROOS 84-59 @ MANUKA OVAL
R 4 2004 SWANS 121-70 @ MANUKA OVAL

WESTERN BULLDOGS v HAWTHORN

W/bulldogs have won only 2 of their last 7 against hawthorn, losing all 3 against them at telstra dome.This year at telstra dome the bulldogs are 0/6 while the hawks are 0/4

last 4 H2H:
R20 2001 W/BULLDOGS 125-79 @ M.C.G
R15 2002 HAWTHORN 116-93 @ TELSTRA DOME
R14 2003 HAWTHORN 154-83 @ M.C.G
R 4 2004 W/BULLDOGS 109-97 @ M.C.G

BRIS LIONS v WEST COAST

The lions have won 4/11 against the eagles, including 3/6 at the gabba. This year at the gabba the lions have won 9/9 while w.coast have won 2/9 interstate[ hawthorn, w/bulldogs]

last 4 H2H:
R 5 2002 W/COAST 121-75 @ SUBIACO
R20 2002 LIONS 136-89 @ GABBA
R12 2003 W/COAST 160-91 @ GABBA
R 4 2004 W/COAST 79-76 @ SUBIACO

RICHMOND v GEELONG

Richmond have won 4 of the last 5 against geelong at the m.c.g. Richmond have won 2/6 at the m.cg this year, while geelong have won 11 of their last 13 games.

last 4 H2H:
R 9 2001 GEELONG 118-76 @ SKILLED STADIUM
R13 2002 GEELONG 96-54 @ M.C.G
R15 2003 GEELONG 101-97 @ TELSTRA DOME
R 4 2004 GEELONG 127-78 @ TELSTRA DOME

PORT ADELAIDE v MELBOURNE

Port have won 5/12 against melb, winning 5/7 at aami stadium. This year at aami, port have won 9/10[losing to adel]while the demons have won 2/4 interstate,[beating swans and fremantle] and losing to lions and the crows.

last 4 H2H:
R17 2002 PORT ADEL 116-112 @ AAMI STADIUM
R 7 2003 MELBOURNE 111 -84 @ M.C.G
R20 2003 PORT ADEL 112-98 @ AAMI STADIUM
R 4 2004 MELBOURNE 124-71 @ M.C.G

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-08-04 16:58 ]</font>

[sportznut]

My Ratings:

Fremantle by 29
St Kilda by 44
Essendon by 30
Sydney by 26
W.Bulldogs by 2
Brisbane by 15
Geelong by 26
Port Adel by 20


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-08-05 10:20 ]</font>

[sportznut]

I have no idea about that Bulldogs/Hawks game. Who would want to bet on either of them? And I think the Eagles might give the Lions some trouble.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-08-04 19:57 ]</font>

[goldmember]

FREMANTLE by 40
ST KILDA by 50
ESSENDON by 22
SWANS by 30
HAWTHORN by 4
LIONS by 18
GEELONG by 47
PORT ADEL by 13

[goldmember]

Last meeting at the ground their playing on

fremantle won @ $2.20/pies $1.60

essendon won @ $1.40/carlton $3.00[night]

swans won @ $2.80/roos $1.38[night]

hawthorn won @ $2.50/bulldogs $1.47[night]

w/coast won @ $3.20/lions $1.30

geelong won @ $1.60/richmond $2.20

port adel won @ $1.05/melb $8.00[night]

[moeee]

Here's mine.

Fremantle 32
St.Kilda 51
Essendon 25
Sydney 9
Bulldogs 12
Brisbane 31
Geelong 34
Port 11

I have seen what the Bulldogs are capable of,and the sacked coach system should rear its head with a win.
And Glenn Archer deserves a red hot go.

[goldmember]

I know also, watching them beat st kilda, but they havent got hot in their last 6 games since.

[moeee]

More the sacked coach theme really.But 3 out of the last 4 were played against hot teams and that leaves Collingwood,who were my specials that day so I remember the game,to struggle to shake the tenacious Dogs off until the final quarter.
But I mean,how good do you have to be to beat Hawthorn,who really are playing at their peak.

[goldmember]

Moeee, not much good i suppose and their not much good either, all depends who decides to turn up to play, even money bet ?,no bet for me again, like last week pies[shit] playing richmond [crap]this could go the same way, a nail biter at the end.what do you think?

[moeee]

I've got the Bulldogs to win by 2 goals,but my Multi will take the Bulldogs with a 1 goal start.Just in case.
These kind of games are a bit like betting in Maiden races.Plenty of them around,but they don't usually instil too much confidence.
Well my season is almost over and I'm betting with profits now so if I go down,its easy come and easy go.
Trouble with betting on AFL games is if you make too many rules about which games to bet on or not,you don't end up with too many bets.And if you want to make a profit in gambling,it all relies on turnover.

[goldmember]

Thats true, if you only bet on AFL like you do, but i bet mainly on NRL approx 70% and AFL 30% during winter, so i can pick and choose which games to bet on,1 code or both depending on whos playing and if there mostly suss games i bet on the different options, so i'm never short of a bet.

cheers

[Baloo]

goldmember...you wanna make a few extra dollars? My advice brought in $128 profit last week. Back Hawks @ $1.80 - money in bank, at same time back Tigers for wooden spoon @ $6. moeee is too stubborn, but I have faith in you.....do you?

[goldmember]

Thanks for the tips Baloo, but i've barred backing hawthorn or richmond in anything.
Nice collect last week but i would never risk $200 to win $128, safe or not, to win that amount i would only have to outlay around $50 or $60 at the most,thanks anyway.

cheers

[Mr J]

For tonight, fremantle -31.5.

[moeee]

Gee,that's a big secret there Mr J.
I think every booking agency on this planet is offering that margin.
Maybe we need to be a little bit more daring in future.Like tipping the Crows to even bother turning up in Tasmania.

[rabbitz]

looks like every betting agency on the planet got it so wrong,i was being conservative when i took freo -5.5 in one of my multis
cheers

[goldmember]

Rabbs, you thought you were conservative, i had them -3.5, never again, their GOOORRNNEE.

[goldmember]

Taking geelong -4.5, surely they wont bite the dust too.

[goldmember]

Which st kilda side and which adel side are going to turn up today ? adel beaten by hawthorn at their only game at york park and saints only beating w/bulldogs here and couldnt beat them earlier this year, some footballer on tv said the crows will win because the ground will suit them ?, dont know and dont care , shitty game to bet on anyway, maybe if the saints supporters take some TELSTRA DOME banners down there they might have a chance. LOL

[Chuck]

St Kilda by 2
Essendon by 29
Swans by 14
Hawthorn by 3
Lions by 4
Geelong by 43
Melbourne by 8

Chuck

[goldmember]

Predicting a few close games there chuck

[Chuck]

yeah, found it tough this week

[goldmember]

The NRL looks more clear cut this week

[Chuck]

dunno...tigers vs souths could be close

[Mr J]

Anyone know what happened with fremantle??? Anyway I was blown away yesterday, hopin today is a bit more spot on.

Adelaide +29
Sydney -20
Western Bulldogs at evens
Essendon -30.5 at 1.95

Not terribly confident today. Feel that Sydney and Essendon could be reasonably close, and that the Saints may just prove to be too much for adelaide. Bulldogs should be close, and it could really go either way I guess.

[moeee]

Fremantles game plan was the wrong one to use against the Pies.It didn't work in the first 3 quarters and it didn't work in the last.And it won't work next week either.
Big win the Cats next week and a possible home final.

[Mr J]

Man that's truly pathetic by Sydney, leading by 40 late in the 3rd but still manage to lose it.

[sportznut]

What???? I stopped checking the scores just assuming they had it won.

[moeee]

Pathetic is not fair Mr J.
It wasn't that the Swans played badly.In AFL we have a term called a run-on.And what that was,was the most timely of run-ons you would ever see.
Just goes to show,it ain't over till the fat lady sings.

[sportznut]

She must have been warming up the voice.

[Mr J]

No it is pathetic Mo. To be outscored in the final 1/4 by 46 pts at home by a top 8 team? It doesn't get any worse (expect being beaten by richmond :wink:)

[Mr J]

What did you mean by run on Mo? Just heard the head trainer had a heart attack and died...I guess I can't blame them.

[sportznut]

Well, I thought West Coast (+39.5) was the bet of the week. Hell, nearly the bet of the year. Like Sydney, the West Coast have no fear of playing the Lions, and they thrashed Brisbane by 10 goals last time they played at the Gabba. I couldn't believe the 39.5 points start.

[rabbitz]

weekend of upsets
Collingwood $3.30
Carlton $4.25
Kangaroos $3.30
west Coast $5.25
Souths are getting done like a dinner(lucky they have a wooden spoon to eat with)
Jana Pitman out of the olympics
Super Elegant out of a place
When will it end
Cheers

[Mr J]

Rabbitz, that's cause I'm on faves this week :wink:

I actually won betting on richmond, amazing.

[sportznut]

Yeah, Richmond just managed to win with the 33.5 points start. The Homedog system must be going all right if it can win on Richmond.

[moeee]

Good onya Sportznut.Congratulations.
Thanks for sharing the bet of the year with every one.Is it too late for me to get on?

[goldmember]

How was the west coast winning an upset, they have the wood on the lions and i thought the + 38.5 was a gimmee @ $1.90, i thought it was a 50/50 game so i played it safe and had a big win.

[moeee]

I'd like to congratulate Mr J for his honesty in displaying his tips and bets and then to admit losing on them when they go down.
Not that I wish it on anyone here,but it is comforting to know that I am not the only loser on this forum.Especially when the braggers don't make an effort to disclose their super specials until after the race.
Maybe I shall go to my dictionary and look up the meaning of the word forum.Yes that's what I will do.

[goldmember]

Now before any one howls me down for this,i know its not on form and wont happen all the time, i had a look at their prevoius prices at their last meeting on the ground their playing and this weekend and:

last meeting: this week:
collingwood $1.60 {$4.75]won
carlton $3.00 [$4.75] won
kangaroos $1.38 [$3.60] won
w/bulldogs $1.47 [ $2.00] lost
w/coast $3.20 [$5.10] won
richmond $2.20 [$5.10] lost
port adel $1.05 [$1.60] won

A pretty good weekend, pity a didnt have any thing on them, next week could be a shocker though,might have a look next week and see what happens.

[goldmember]

Moeee,dont know who exactly your talkin about but i cant display every bet i put on because i have so many, it would take 1 or 2 pgaes to put them in and sometimes they are put on just before kick off or when im out at a tab, and i display my best value bets under the nrl post as i have more bets there, havent been on the net since sat morning, i got a 3 legged multi @ $12.14.

cheers

[sportznut]

Mo,

Sorry that I don't display in big bold letters especially for you, every single bet I am going to make for the whole weekend. Like Goldmember, some of my bets are placed on Friday night, and some just before the matches start, so it would be extremely tough to do. The fact is that on this thread, my ratings predicted only a 15 point margin and I did say that I thought the West Coast would give the Lions some trouble. Doesn't that suggest that I probably thought 39.5 pts start looked pretty good.

Anyway, if I had come on here and said that the West Coast were specials, would it have made you back them? As far as I can tell, you make all your own betting decisions and it doesn't matter what anyone else on here thinks about any of the matches, you certainly don't change your bets.

[moeee]

Discussion.That's what a forum is supposed to be.Someone makes a comment and then the others comment on that comment.Hopefully some others not involved in the comments can get some benefit from following and preferably contributing to the discussion.
If people want to cover up their faults by only releasing their successes in an effort to fool themselves into a false sense of security that they are successful in their punting attempted career,I'm not falling for it.
Mojo was another honest player who obviously needs advice and a helping hand.
What is it about user names beginning with the letter M that makes them so sincere.
13th letter of the alphabet.alpha,beginning.Unlucky beginninners at betting.

[sportznut]

On 2004-08-08 18:53, goldmember wrote:
How was the west coast winning an upset, they have the wood on the lions and i thought the + 38.5 was a gimmee @ $1.90, i thought it was a 50/50 game so i played it safe and had a big win.


There you go. Goldmember did exactly the same as me. I don't recall him mentioning this bet before the match and I don't blame him one little bit for mentioning it after the fact. If you had asked me my opinion before the match I would have told you very clearly that I thought the West Coast would go close to winning and the points start was way too big. Apart from anything else, I was out until around 2 o'clock yesterday, so I couldn't get on the computer before then anyway.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-08-09 10:43 ]</font>

[moeee]

Exactly!.Goldmember is another that does the same.And I do the same as well.Gee,it's the second best part of backing a winner.
There is a joke that goes something like the best part of getting a root is telling your mates at the pub about it.
My tips are there for all to see.My betting history is there,and my advice is there and my brash statements are there.
How about we limit our boasting to the situations that we can back up with a "I told you so".And a "sorry about that".
Well maybe not apologising for pointing at losers.I think others can point them out to us if need be.