Look back and see ahead.

[moeee]

When we win we are so stimulated by the occasion,that we can't wait to see what's on next week.
When we lose we are so disappointed by the occasion we can't wait to see what's on next week.
If you are winning,then that is all that matters and continue on your merry way.
When we lose,I just wonder how many of us accept the loss and continue on our way.
Quite possible that we can spend hours analyzing what the future event has in store.But probably spend barely a few minutes analyzing why it wasn't so.
Our good friend Goldmember has even been known to blame certain players for his loss.
As though they are even aware of his existence!
I am about to retire to the comforts of the lounge room to watch Fremantle win by 32 points precisely.
My mathematics gives them a win of 26,and my something at back of my brain,(could this be the Vibe talking to me),says 38.Average equals what the bookies are saying.
After,very much after,I shall return to explain why or why not the result was or was not as stated.
Good luck all.

[sportznut]

Not looking good Mo.

[rabbitz]

look back and see ahead(a head)
its the bookie chasing you for his money on freo
cheers

[sportznut]

Well, so much for that. I guess you were pretty close with that 32 point margin.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-08-06 23:24 ]</font>

[goldmember]

Fremantle to win by 32pts precisely, nobody can predict a precise win unless they pick a number and have it for every single game!

[moeee]

Well after a poor sleep the night before,I managed to get through the game without karking it.
Did you know at half time,Collingwood were offerred at even money?
So Collingwood played as well as they were capable of,and it wasn't Fremantle's lack of ability that let the game get away.It was a thing called game plan.The thing that makes Sydney no easybeats for the Lions.
I shall depart to have a look at Goldmember's stats,expecting to see Collingwood looking good.
I think now is the time to have a look at these two teams for next week.A bit like forgetting our last nights dream.Facts and figures quite vivid and drift away within a short time.
Fremantle to get belted by Geelong by 10 goals.Maybe more.
Collingwood versus Essendon?.Don't know,but I tell you what I do know.Buy your tickets now,if they aren't already sold out.Full house coming up.

[goldmember]

Were fremantle under the odds ?

Last time they met at subiaco fremantle were $2.20 this time $1.18 collingwood were $1.60 this time $4.75 hmmmm.

[moeee]

Considering that prior to the game,Goldmember,that you thought Fremantle would win by 40 points,then in fact Fremantle were over the odds.
Obviously we all need to take a closer look at why we come up with the margins that we do.
Automatic conclusions like,BRISBANE-GABBA-BIG WIN,need to be analyzed a bit differently.
People with a lot of time for these sort of things do a thing called individual matchups.
Like going out there without a capable ruckmen is going to mean a loss regardless of how good your forward line is.

[goldmember]

YEAH, i did think that they would win easily, but there is no FRICKIN way on earth that a team is over the odds at $1.18, your kidding, havent you heard Of VALUE.

[moeee]

Value is my middle name.That is my modum operandi.I convert my estimations into prices and then compare to the prices available.
In your case,a margin of 40 points equates to a price of $1.16,so then $1.18 is in fact slight value.
Mr J would have snapped it up in a second.
But me and you would have waited till it was better value.And that my friend Goldmember is what you really are looking for in your betting.BETTER VALUE.
Assessed at $1.16 would make a value bet for me if I could get $1.38

[Mr J]

I did snap it up. I had fremantle winning very comfortably.

[Baloo]

OK, so here's what I don't understand. You all analyse your figures and your "values" and below and under the odds. I'll place a bet: a. because it adds more excitement to my viewing and
b. because I think it will win...to hell with "value odds" a win is a win.
I cannot believe people are not rushing the bookies for bets on Hawthorn to beat Bulldogs
I backed LLoyd for the Coleman when he was $2.50, not because he was "over" the odds (which I believe he was) but because I had been away and thought he'd win whatever his odds. BTW I think Lions V Saints quinella for GF is good thing. Lots of Love.

[Mr J]

"to hell with "value odds" a win is a win."

Which is why you'll never profit longterm at sportsbetting. Not a problem though if all you want is entertainment.

[moeee]

I would hazard a guess Baloo,that you buy your milk from the local milk bar.

[Baloo]

Mr J, if I back what I think are "certainties" how can I not profit longterm? - in fact I have for a number of years now.
Mo, we don't have "milk-bars" where I hail from, but if we did and I needed milk, why the hell not?
Now, let us not forget, my last tip the "Hawthorn certainty" has incresed my pot to $590.40. That's $390.40 profit. This placed on Tigers for Spoon at $6 should result in $3542.40. How can that not be considered profit in just 3 bets?

[moeee]

Killing 'em Baloo.You bastard.I've lost the lot!
I wonder,Baloo,to increase the excitement,do you prefer crossing the road away from the intersection?
I am trying to go where Mr J is going.Which means a steady income rather than spurts and drips.
Keep doing what your doing Baloo.Many of us are in fact seeking value in all our bets without knowing it.
And that's the difference.I am using,wrongly or rightly,an approach that is as plain as it can be whether I am getting over the odds or not.
Not looking too good at the minute,but at least I may see at seasons end where I went wrong.The seat of your pants approach is quite exciting,until your bare arse is sticking out.
The reason I buy my milk at the supermarket is they sell it 40 cents cheaper.Looking at it in a litres per dollar situation,then that is value.

[Mr J]

Baloo, profit does not equal a value bet.

There are NO certainties. Gambling is based on probabilities, meaning that nothing is a sure thing.

If you constantly bet on 'sure things', say teams priced at 1.05 (fair odds). You would win 20/21 times, only enough to breakeven. Now the bookies obviously use below the fair odds, so you will lose longterm. Trust me, it doesn't work.

Mo, there's nothing consistent about an income off sports. I reached a bankroll high just a couple of weeks ago, but have dropped 33% of that since. Next week I might make it all back again, or I might drop even further down. This is way money management is so important. The variance is really crazy.