Handicapping

[good 4th]

Weight ratings (Don Scott) have been done by the Handicapper for us and as we know most races are won by the top five in weight ratings.How about we rerate these ratings using some sort of penalty bonus system, its more than likely been done ( i dont know ) Does anyone use such a thing?
Ive been fooling around with win & distance strike rates, place strike, last three run, Average prize,but still not having much strength in gaining more winners.
Any thoughts???

GD4TH

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: good 4th on 2004-08-20 05:58 ]</font>

[thoroughbred]

I could point you in a certain direction but the name is banned on this forum.

You've taken a risk mentioning "Don Scott", he's banned too.

[darkydog2002]

Why would Don Scotts name be banned .He,s been dead for years??
Cheers.
darky.

Hey thoroughbred, please give us the info. If this mob who run the site can't support their customers in this way it shows a distinct lack of confidence in their product! Agreed this site shouild not be used for blatant advertising of an opponents product, but nor should we be, by common law restricted in what we say. Censhorship and propaganda rule here I'm afraid!

[Management]

We are not aware that mention of Don Scott's name is banned in this forum.

Our LEGAL ADVICE is quite clear:

Our business is the legal publisher of posts in this forum. That means censorship has to be applied, just as censorship is applied by TV stations, newspapers, talk back radio etc.

For example, thousands of letters to newspapers don't get published because of censorship and possible legal ramifications.

We are not backed by hundreds of millions of dollars. We are not prepared to involve our company in costly legal battles as a result of some posters wishing to anonymously practise their version of "freedom of speech".

Acceptance of the Terms of Use are a precondition to becoming a Registered Poster and posting - (being publicly published) - on this privately owned forum.

Management.

[Dalray]

GD4TH,

You could "RF" the weight of each horse compared to the other horses (RB) or compare Wt. this start + or - last start (EJ). I use the latter.
Would not use placings but beaten lengths with distance.

Ray.

[good 4th]

Thanks all.
Dalray im not to sure what you mean,Could you explain a bit further, cheers.
Ive been using a thing from Malcolm Knowles without any great success as it just seems to rate them in order yet again.
It's so frustrating as we all know with things being so close but also so far.
Winning is the easy part ( i think ) its dealing with the losses thats all keeping us from our dream.

Off to work
GD4TH

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: good 4th on 2004-08-20 05:57 ]</font>

[davez]

also wouldnt mind an expansion on your post dalray, as im guessing you are working along some similar lines to myself in that often i find the weight carried last start to be more significant than the weight to be carried this start - perhaps not so much to find the winner but to eliminate the (potential) donkeys.

[Dalray]

GD4TH,

Maybe Iwas following on from "Thoroughbred's" starting comments and didn't read your post correctly.
If you are using a rating system, you wouldn't add more rules unless the rules you are adding are not already there. I would define the present rules and see what could be letting your ratings down and maybe add extra rules. What could help to improve it .
* Pre-post market
* Up in weight
* Days sinced raced
* Starts from spell
* Jockey
* Barrier
You would have to rate each rule , say 1-10 and add these proportionally to you present rating.
Cyah
Ray.

[Dalray]

Davex & GD4TH,
Sorry my reply is late - Rating some mules.
Weighted Race- As you know the top weighted horses have a higher strike rate than lower weighted ones,so scale the race + above say 53.5kgs - below. (RF 53.5=1.00 ,60kgs=1.7, 50kgs= .5).
Horses weight difference.- Same weight last start =0 (RF 1.00). Up in wt. (RF 2kgs=1.36). Down in wt (RF -2kgs=.80).
I use the latter because I think weight rises say's to me good horses win & dropping in wt. dont win as often.
These should not be used solely but with other form factors.
Cyah,
Ray

[good 4th]

Hi Dalray,
Not weight ratings as in the horses weight but weight ratings as in 100,90 89 etc.
Although you have some great info.

Cheers
GD4TH

[davez]

good4th, are you making any adjustments for class movements, as while i dont prepare my own ratings, i do use factors such as weight/class +/- when deciding my selections


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: davez on 2004-08-22 16:02 ]</font>

[good 4th]

I havent worried to much about class as I think the Ave prize money does the same thing.
Weight carried is of importance but havent given it to much thought yet.. as i would like to consider the total weight (Horse and Jockey) combined, until i can find this for free i'll pass on it.

I use,
Weight rating (100 98 97 90) etc
Last start
Ave Prize money $
Win strike rate %
Time rating..

Also have been looking at last three starts %
Total runs/(win-places)%

All things to consider but a lot of work.

Some days are great?? but its still Roulette at the end of the day.(luck)
As the best Runner selected doesn't always mean its the right one to back so its like which one is the correct one mmmmmmmmm

GD4TH

[stebbo]

Hey Thoroughbred...

perhaps you could email me the name of the banned handicapper?

Cheers,
Chris.