In place of a system to pick horses

It appears that the better systems will average just north of 20% S/R win.

Why not just select certain races, provincial races, maidens, city group races .... whatever and bet only when the market is favourable. By "favourable" I refer to looking at backing a horse that is paying the closest to 4/1, but must be no less than 4/1. Now that method alone will not win you money, but just say you will be betting in 5 races on the day. If you decided that when (IF) you backed a winner that you would bet all the winnings, plus the stake on one of the other races. So for a $20 bet all up, to cover your 5 bets for the day, your outlay would be $200. Five horses 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. $20 on #1 all up #2. $20 on #1 all up #3 and so on. $20 on one bet, all up one other bet (@ say 4/1 and 5/1) would give you $600, a profit of $400 for the day.

So, what are the odds of selecting 2 winners from 5 bets @ better than 4/1?

If you can do it at a better rate than one meeting in three you are in front. If you happened to fluke 3 winners in one day that would be a profit of $1600 on the above scenario.

[good 4th]

You make it sound so easy,
Try a version today and post the results aong with your selections and lets trial the idea on paper.

GD4TH

Make it tomorrow, too late for today given it is odds based and the races have already started. I'll run it for the next week, Victorian races starting tomorrow.


1) More then eight runners
2) No hurdles or 2yo or set weights.
3) Horse starting closest to $4.50 the win, not less than $4.50.
4) Run the betting in mutiples of five races. So if six races qualify tomorrw, then the sixth race will carry over to the next day.

Betting will be $20 per bet. Total outlay of $200.

Selected race 1 all up Selected race 2, 1 all up 3, 1 all up 4, 1 all up 5, 2 all up 3, 2 all up 4, 2 all up 5, 3 all up 4, 3 all up 5, 4 all up 5.

Toooooooo easy .........

Outlay for the first set of five races = $200.00

Return $3,903.60

Second set of five already has one winner, one more in the next two races and we are in the money again!

[good 4th]

Thats great butternut,
Could you show all the details as to how you arrived at the sum in profit. NOT DOUBTING you but would the all up pools be that big ?

GD4TH

4th, have a look in the paper at the results for Werribee. All we are talking about here is $20 all up the next selected race.

Hardly enough to kill the TAB.

Can I have my moment in the sunshine please?

You could also try this with odds of a minimum of $6.00. Two strikes in five races and you've got heaps.

[maverick1993]

well done Butternut ..you are the master :smile:

[Hammers]

Butternut,

Assuming your selections are all at $5 on the tote, the winning chance of each selection is about 17.5% (the real chance to 100% market is $5.70).

The incidence of winners in five bets is as follows -

No winners - 38.2%
One winner - 55.4%
Two winners - 5.5%
Three winners - 0.8%
Four winners - 0.11%
Five winners - 0.017%

In every 100 race days, you will outlay $20000. You will get nothing back on 94 days, $500 on 5 days, $2500 on 1 day. That's $5000 for your $20000. Of course, the one day in 909 you get 4 winners or the one day in 5882 you get every winner will bolster the bank but here is the undeniable fact .....

ALLUP BETTING CANNOT TURN LOSING FIGURES INTO WINNING FIGURES IN THE LONG RUN.

Show me the maths that proves I'm wrong and I will apologise profusely and give $500 to the charity of your choice. I'm pretty sure I'll be keeping my gorilla though.

The only thing that allup betting will do to the figures that you yourself admit are losing figures is redistribute the payouts so they are larger but less frequent.

Sorry but you aren't the messiah - you're a very naughty boy for spreading such untruths.

[moeee]

Aha.You see.A bit of research and there you go.Found the system.
Sorry dear departed Butternut.No logic in there.
Take your system to the casino.Play the roulette wheel.Plenty of 4-1 chances there.And the casino's take is less than the bookies!

[Marcus]

More memories ...