NRL Round 25

[sportznut]

Fri 7:30 Bulldogs vs Newcastle
Sat 5:30 Souths vs Brisbane
Sat 7:30 Parra vs Penrith
Sat 7:30 Sharks vs Melbourne
Sun 12:00 NZ Warriors vs Syd Roosters
Sun 2:30 St Geo/Ill vs Manly
Sun 3:00 W.Tigers vs NQ Cowboys

[sportznut]

My Ratings:

Bulldogs by 14
Brisbane by 4
Penrith by 2
Sharks by 2
Roosters by 12
St Geo/Ill by 12
W.Tigers by 6

[Chuck]

Dogs by 10
Broncos by 22
Panthers by 24
Melb 8
Roosters 26+
Dragons by 15
Tigers by 2

Chuck

[maverick1993]

Dogs 20
Brisbane 14
Penrith 14
Melbourne 8
Manly 8
Rossters 20
Tigers 10

Thanks Chuck..i think the roossters will step up a gear,,they did this time last year..St George were off the boil a bit last week so im tipping an upset,,Manly can be a team that surprises..

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Maverick1993 on 2004-08-24 22:03 ]</font>

[Chuck]

what about the roosters' game mav?
Chuck

[goldmember]

BULLDOGS v KNIGHTS

The bulldogs have won 3 of their last 5 against the knights, with 8 wins + 1 draw from 11 games at home against them,including 2/3 at telstra stadium. At home this year the bulldogs have won 8/8 while the knights have won 5/11 away.

last 4 H2H:
R20 2002 BULLDOGS 22-21 @ NEWCASTLE
R 5 2003 KNIGHTS 12- 6 @ NEWCASTLE
R17 2003 BULLDOGS 48-14 @ TELSTRA STADIUM
R 9 2004 KNIGHTS 32- 6 @ NEWCASTLE

SOUTHS v BRONCOS

Souths have won 2/13 against the broncos,losing the last 11 and winning 1/8 at home against them.This year at home souths have won 4/10 while the broncos have won 9/10 away.

last 4 H2H:
R20 1999 BRONCOS 22- 8 @ S.F.S
R 8 2002 BRONCOS 42-16 @ S.F.S
R 2 2003 BRONCOS 22-20 @ S.F.S
R17 2004 BRONCOS 48-28 @ SUNCORP

SHARKS v STORM

The sharks have won 5/12 against the storm,winning 3/6 at home against them.The sharks are 4/11 at home this year while the storm are 4/11 away.

last 4 H2H:
R 2 2002 SHARKS 30-24 @ TOYOTA PK
R 1 2003 STORM 36-32 @ TOYOTA PK
R 5 2003 STORM 18-12 @ OLYMPIC PK
R 9 2004 SHARKS 36-26 @ OLYMPIC PK

EELS v PANTHERS

The eels have won 4 of their last 6 against the panthers, while the panthers have lost their last 4 away games against the eels. At home this year the eels have won 5/11 while the panthers have won 5/12 away.

last 4 H2H:
R14 2001 EELS 54-28 @ PARRA STADIUM
R 1 2002 EELS 64- 6 @ PARRA STADIUM
R26 2003 PANTHERS 40-22 @ PENRITH PK
R16 2004 PANTHERS 26-16 @ PENRITH PK

WARRIORS v ROOSTERS

The warriors have won 8/15 against the roosters,winning 5/6 at ericsson.At home this year the warriors have won 4/10 while the roosters have won 7/10 away.

last 4 H2H:
R24 2002 ROOSTERS 44- 0 @ S.F.S
GFL 2002 ROOSTERS 30- 8 @ TELSTRA STADIUM
R25 2003 WARRIORS 26-24 @ S.F.S
R12 2004 ROOSTERS 58- 6 @ S.F.S

STGEORGE ILLAWARRA v MANLY

The saints have won 2/4 against manly[winning 2/6 against the nthn eagles from 2000-2002],with saints winning 1/2 at home against them[wollongong]. This is the 1st game between them at kogarah. At home this year the saints have won 6/10[2/3 at kogarah] while manly have won 3/11 away.

last 4 H2H:
R22 2002 NTHN EAGLES 20-18 @ S.F.S
R 5 2003 MANLY 38-12 @ WOLLONGONG
R16 2003 STGEORGE 42-28 @ BROOKVALE
R 1 2004 MANLY 21-10 @ BROOKVALE

WEST TIGERS v COBOYS

The tigers have won 2/8 against the cowboys,winning 1/3 at home against them[leichardt]and losing the only 1 played at campbelltown.At home this year the tigers have won 5/8 [1/4 campbelltown,4/4 leichardt]while the cowboys have 5 wins + 1 draw from 10 away games.

last 4 H2H:
R 9 2002 COWBOYS 40-16 @ DAIRY FARMERS
R10 2003 COWBOYS 26- 8 @ DAIRY FARMERS
R25 2003 COWBOYS 34-14 @ CAMPBELLTOWN
R 4 2004 W/TIGERS 18- 8 @ DAIRY FARMERS

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-08-25 14:03 ]</font>

[goldmember]

BULLDOGS by 30
BRONCOS by 24
SHARKS by 4
EELS by 2
ROOSTERS by 14
STGEORGE by 12
* COWBOYS by 8 [ if RAHIHI plays]
W/TIGERS by 12 [ if RAHIHI out]

Although not named in the 17 rahihi might be included later in the week.

[goldmember]

MAV,i heard on t.v that FITZGIBBON and MINICHELLO will miss 1 week, so i would be wary of taking a big margin this week and i think the bulldogs SHOULD be a better bet to win big.

[goldmember]

Roosters under the odds against the warriors and are no value @ $1.20, so roosters try @ $1.72 is a better bet as the warriors have been slow starters most of the year and their last 3 games they have taken 20 minutes to score.

[sportznut]

You think Rahihi makes 20 points difference???

[sportzRus]

On 2004-08-26 09:48, sportznut wrote:
You think Rahihi makes 20 points difference???




Looks that way sportz.


_________________


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportzRus on 2004-08-26 10:00 ]</font>

[goldmember]

Sportz, their last couple of games without him have been ordinary and watching the game last week they had no go forward at all and struggled to get out of their own way, he does make a BIG difference to them and they should win if he plays.

[goldmember]

TOP RATED TEAMS THIS WEEK:

1. ROOSTERS
2. BULLDOGS
3. EELS
4. DRAGONS

[Mr J]

Only done tonights game so far, have the bulldogs winning by 14.83, so no bet for me.

[rarebitz]

MY TOP RATED TEAMS THIS WEEK:


1. BULLDOGS
2. BRONCOS
3. ROOSTERS

[jakelee]

Well, someone thinks the Sharks are a good bet.
<code>
$20,000 @ $1.85 ON CRONULLA (+4.5) V MELBOURNE

$20,000 @ $1.85 ON ST GEO ILL (-13.5) V MANLY

$15,000 @ $1.85 ON ST GEO ILL (-13.5) V MANLY

$11,000 @ $1.85 ON CRONULLA (+4.5) V MELBOURNE

$10,500 @ $1.85 ON CRONULLA (+4.5) V MELBOURNE

$7,000 @ $1.85 ON CRONULLA (+4.5) V MELBOURNE

$7,000 @ $1.85 ON CRONULLA (+4.5) V MELBOURNE

$5,000 @ $1.85 ON CRONULLA (+4.5) V MELBOURNE

$5,000 @ $1.85 ON CRONULLA (+4.5) V MELBOURNE
</code>

[Mr J]

Well I'm not exactly about to respect bets placed at any TAB :wink:

[goldmember]

Biggest overs this week:

EELS
SHARKS

Was off last week and had only a few bets, but the biggest overs last week STORM and MANLY won.

[goldmember]

Matt Parsons, Andrew Price are out of tonights game against the bulldogs and Steve Simpson comes into the 17, Adam Woolough is still in doubt and if he is ruled out later today the knights will get run over by the doggies forwards and this week could be a whitewash.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-08-27 10:59 ]</font>

[mug punta]

All the good teams be it AFL or NRL should be out to really gain confidence this week and I reckon if you backed all of the short faves say $1.30 or less to beat their respective spreads you will end up in front for the weekend.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: mug punta on 2004-08-27 10:52 ]</font>

[goldmember]

Some of the teams i think will win are under the odds and i wont be backing,looking at different betting options instead, picked out 10 teams, 6 AFL and 4 NRL teams and all up is just over $6 thats not much value for 10 winners and all it takes is 1 upset and you get zilch. Looked at:

BULLDOGS TRY
ROOSTERS TRY
@ $2.94 , as better value.

[sportznut]

On 2004-08-27 09:35, jakelee wrote:
Well, someone thinks the Sharks are a good bet.


Hope they're right, for the sake of my system. So far this year, my system has not been as successful on League as it has on AFL and Union. It's had 17 wins from 29 bets on NRL, 21 from 30 on AFL and an incredible 16 from 17 on Union!!! :eek:


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-08-27 11:45 ]</font>

[jakelee]

Hi Mr J,

Sure, if you're betting on the TAB, the odds ain't so good. I suspect this is probably bookies spreading their risk.

I'd be worried about taking the Sharks!

[goldmember]

Adam Woolnough, Daniel Abraham and Brock Mueller have been ruled out late this afternoon and Ben Kennedy is battling a bad case of the flu, so the doggies by........................

Normally i wouldnt back the sharks either, but the storm away from home are a different team and sometimes cant beat time with a stick

[Mr J]

It's had 17 wins from 29 bets on NRL, 21 from 30 on AFL and an incredible 16 from 17 on Union!!! :eek:


17/29 is pretty much on par with expectation of home dog performance over the last 3 years.

21/30 is quite a bit higher than you should expect for AFL. 18-12 reflects last 3 years of results.

S12, well what can I say, overall dogs were awesome this year.

[goldmember]

Sonny Boy Williams and Corey Hughes have just been dropped from the bench for tonights game, but it still doesnt even it up .

[Mr J]

My ratings for today, rounded to closest full number:

Brisbane by 6
Sharks by 0 (Sharks by 0.27)
Parramatta by 6

Souths strength at home has gone up for me. They have put in some good games recently.

Eels have also been in decent form recently, while penrith has been very inconsistent over the last month, being the slaughterer in home games and the slaughteree in away games.

Sharks at home? No thanks. Ah, they're playing Melbourne? I'd still prefer to stay out of it though.

[sportznut]

Well, quite a few people lost some big money on the Sharks tonight.

[Mr J]

Yeh I've been pretty hard done by lately. Told you I would've prefered to stay away from the sharks :wink:

Good start yesterday on AFL & NRL, winning the first 2. Then the 3 evening games all lose?? Deja vu. All my betting has been breakeven for 5 weeks now.

[Mr J]

Ah yeh.

Warriors +14 at 1.99

Manly +17 at 2.15

[sportznut]

When do you bet Mr J? Do you bet early or do you wait till just before the game?

As I bet on a lot of outsiders, I find the odds or the line often go out because so many back the favs. Today I got Warriors (+13.5) at $2 which I thought was good.

[moeee]

On 2004-08-29 09:37, Mr J wrote:

Good start yesterday on AFL & NRL, winning the first 2. Then the 3 evening games all lose?? Deja vu. All my betting has been breakeven for 5 weeks now.



Doesn't say much for a system that relies on even money chances where you are only beating a 5% take.

[Mr J]

Sure it doesn't say much. I just picked out the lowest performing patch this year.

Does 117-86 for +24.52 units sound ok? (my systems results this year).

[moeee]

Is that 117 at even money or 117 at $1.90 or 117 at some other price?

[Mr J]

Average price for NRL/AFL is 1.98, for Union it'd be a little over even money.

Last count I think Sportznuts home dogs were hitting around 70%????

AFL home dogs have hit 99/157 for 63% over the last 3 years.

NRL home dogs have hit 92/160 for 57.5% over the last 3 years.

S12 is probally 55-60%.

This is for ALL home dogs. I think Sportznut has a rule where he stays away from derbies (for AFL/NRL) or same nationality matches for S12. I doubt it really makes that much difference, but it'd be interesting to check out anyway.

60% over 317 bets is extremely good, not sure if it'll keep that up though. It'd just how prove how inefficient the market is if it did.

One big flaw is that the system relies on a historical trend, which might change at any time. I doubt they will though, as the home dogs have been the best bet in the NFL for decades.

[goldmember]

After watching all the games this week not 1 team stood out, with all of next weeks games all being up for grabs with the probability of the cowboys being the best of them , could be a few upsets