Grand Final Predictions

[moeee]

Bottom 4 teams have almost no chance.

To make the Grand Final followed by to win it.

Brisbane $1.50 $2.05
Port Power $2.00 $4.10
St.Kilda $2.75 $7.85 (editted error)
Geelong $3.50 $10.30 (editted error)

And don't forget,all you Quinella punters,Brisbane will probably play they're Preliminary Final at the MCG.
So they are not certainties to play in the Grand Final.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: moeee on 2004-08-30 18:49 ]</font>

[mug punta]

I dont think you can write off Sydney or West Coast in those equations yet.
No chance at all to Essendon or the Dees though to go all the way.
Can someone tell me if the dons win do they play the loser of Bris and Saints?

[sportznut]

No, the loser of Bris/St.K plays the winner of Syd/WCst.

If anyone wants to work out who will play who depending on each result, I suggest you go to http://afl.com.au/ , then open the Channel 10 'Ladder Predictor' on the left side of the page. Then click on 'Show the AFL finals series'. You will then be able to select all the winners week by week and it works it all out for you.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-08-30 16:12 ]</font>

[beberrycareful]

I think West Coast could surprise
and they know how to beat Brisbane

[goldmember]

LIONS,PORT,SWANS only 3 chances

SAINTS, GEELONG for next year

MELBOURNE,ESSENDON,WEST COAST thanks for coming

[moeee]

On 2004-08-30 15:33, mug punta wrote:

I dont think you can write off Sydney or West Coast in those equations yet.



The winner gets the opportunity to play St.Kilda.
They couldn't beat them before and I see no reason why they should beat them this time.Especially Sydney,who will probably beat the Eagles.

[moeee]

On 2004-08-30 18:17, beberrycareful wrote:
I think West Coast could surprise
and they know how to beat Brisbane



Four interstate trips in a row,against the best in the land.
Pigs can fly!

[racingnovice]

finals are a complete different ball game. Just look at port. Port has proven it cant play in finals, Melbourne and essendon just arent good enough. Sydney and west coast have been in finals for 2-3years now. Geelong and st.kilda are still to young with 90% of there teams not having played a final. Brisbane nothing needs to be said :smile:.

I'm going with Brisbane, West Coast and Sydney. With st.kilda and geelong with outside chances depends how the young players handle the pressure. I wont be betting though its to hard to pick a clear favourite. Brisbane isnt worth the risk for the low odds.

[moeee]

On 2004-08-30 18:30, goldmember wrote:
LIONS,PORT,SWANS only 3 chances



Still reckon you got some kind of hangup with Sydney.Local bias or something.
They certainly won't beat the Saints in Melbourne.

[sportznut]

On 2004-08-30 18:34, moeee wrote:
The winner gets the opportunity to play St.Kilda.


That's assuming Brisbane beats St Kilda.

[goldmember]

Dont really like the swans but i think they can get past westcoast and lions/saints, and i'm like you with port, what happened the last 2 years has nothing to do with this year and they can go close.

[moeee]

I think we all know very well that the Saints won't beat Brisbane at the Gabba.
Otherwise Sydney or the Eagles get a chance at the Lions,which in fact both teams seem to do well against.
Who would have thought that a team would prefer to play the mighty Lions rather than the Saints.
Just boils down to teams playing styles.And that is where it is possible to make money from betting by analyzing these styles.

[Geez]

On 2004-08-30 18:38, moeee wrote:

On 2004-08-30 18:17, beberrycareful wrote:
I think West Coast could surprise
and they know how to beat Brisbane



Four interstate trips in a row,against the best in the land.
Pigs can fly!





Pigs can fly moeee! spotted one only the other day!

As for 4 interstate trips - might just camp over there for the duration!!

[rabbitz]

Sportznut
How much convincing does one need.Now I reckon your one of the best/luckiest punters I've come across,specially with the home dog system.I had concerns about lynch not being there for the next few weeks,so I went back to the tape of the game and watched it again.
Lynch went off with 7:02 on the clock in the third term,the score was 110-45,so without lynch the lions still managed 10 goalsto 2.
Grant Thomas (saints coach) reckons that hes got different personnel,different tactics etc
i reckon the only thing thats not different is all the hot air that is coming from his lungs(if thats possible being in Melbourne)
Now I think the only thing that could stop Brisbane is if they lost brown,Bradshaw,Akermanis and Voss,then they could be beaten.
The difference between you and I is that I'm
emotional about the Lions winning whereas your being sensible when we all know that if they make the Grand final and win you'll probably be yelling louder than I
Cheers

[moeee]

It's all about the double chance really.
That and the fact that the top four teams are clearly superior than the four bottom teams.
Wonder whether the crowd will be supporting Brisbane on Grand Final day.Surely the tall poppy syndrome will rise and the real Aussies will cheer on the underdogs.

[goldmember]

I wouldnt say geelong is superior to the swans and eagles , only melb and the bumblers.

[rabbitz]

Brisbane have their fans and they have their
Un-fans(I just made that up)
I think there will be lots of cheering if St
Kilda or Geelong are there.Can you imagine the angst if it was a lions-swans Gfinal
I'd like to see that
Cheers

[moeee]

Two things for you Rabbitz.
Wouldn't read too much into the second half of the Kangaroos effort.Except that they'll probably be merging with the Bulldogs within the next 2 years.
Second is that it is a night game and hopefully the Saints can get through the whole game without dehydrating,considering they don't have intravenous drips and shit like that.
Go Sainters!

[sportznut]

On 2004-08-30 19:06, moeee wrote:
Wonder whether the crowd will be supporting Brisbane on Grand Final day.Surely the tall poppy syndrome will rise and the real Aussies will cheer on the underdogs.


Depends who they're playing. There's no Collingwood for people to hate this year.

[rabbitz]

Now mOeee
Two things
1. your talking through your kick
2. Your talking through your kick
Remind me again how much cabbage will be in your salad if they do win.
Cheers

[Happychap]

talk about medusa running amuk :lol:

[sportznut]

Rabbitz,

When it comes to supporting my teams, I must admit that I am the world's biggest pessimist. You'd think that if anyone could be optimistic about their team's chances, it would be a Brisbane Lions supporter but no, not me. Firstly, I'm worried about this week's game because I honestly think St Kilda will be tough, and if we lose it I'm EXTREMELY worried about having to play Sydney or West Coast next week!!! If we were minor premiers, I would be a bit more confident about our chances this year. I really am expecting Port Adelaide to beat their 'choker' tag this week at least, so that'll mean no home prelim final for Brisbane, even if they win this week.

[mug punta]

Port cant win the flag. That is all.

[moeee]

On 2004-08-30 22:31, mug punta wrote:
Port cant win the flag. That is all.


Funny how whenever someone comes up with a statement that is untrue and vehemently declares it to be fact ends up getting bitten on the bum.

[whiterhino]

experience talking hey moeee

[marko]

BRISBANE are home and hosed i reckon but then again I had $5 on hawks at start of year for wooden spoon (a collect of $205)so that just shows what a born loser I am.I reckon if you back RIEWOLDT each way for brownlow you could win a little

[sportznut]

You must feel robbed. I never would have even considered Hawthorn for the Wooden Spoon. Did you at least back Richmond towards the end to get something out of it?

[mug punta]

On 2004-08-31 09:50, moeee wrote:

On 2004-08-30 22:31, mug punta wrote:
Port cant win the flag. That is all.


Funny how whenever someone comes up with a statement that is untrue and vehemently declares it to be fact ends up getting bitten on the bum.

It's not &quot;untrue&quot;. You blokes are all overrating the mugs and the real value in the scheme of things is the winner of the swans eagles clash.
How about the bombers 4 a little value with this scenario.
We knock over dees, the &quot;certainties&quot;, Port beat the cats and saints lose to Lions so we play Geelong at the g in week 2, with all our key players hitting form ie Lloyd, Hird, Fletcher etc.
We then give them a beating and play the Lions at the G and we win that one also.
Then we come up against the world chokers Port and with all the emotion surrounding the retirement of Wellman, Misiti etc and Hird knowing it's his last chance of September glory we take out the big one!!!!!
Alright im only kidding but you are allowed to dream.
The more and more I think about it it's a Brisbane/Saints or Brisbane/Geelong granny.
With a small saver on the mighty bombers, NOT

[moeee]

Just to show how things can go wrong.

I backed St.Kilda to win the Premiership between Rounds 4 and 12.
My total investment is $250 for a possible return of $1025.
This comes out to an average price of $4.10

Oh well.At least I didn't back Collingwood.

[sportznut]

Mo, how come you are acting like you've done your dough already. Saints are still definitely in with a chance you know.

At the time, I just couldn't work out why you kept on backing them week after week instead of being satisfied with the one bet. However, if they do end up taking the title in a month's time, you'll definitely have the last laugh.

[moeee]

The thing is,Sportznut,you need to know what and why you are doing when you are doing it.
When I backed St.Kilda,the reason I did it so early was because I wanted to get set at a good price.
When I made the bets I thought I was doing just that,but in hindsight I stuffed up as I could have waited until now and got $7.
In fact had I waited until now I would have probably kept it in my pocket.

Here's a story for you.

I went to an outdoor market with my mate and the stall had a socket wrench for sale at $12 so I grabbed it.
Two stalls up they had the same wrench for $11.
Another three stalls up they were selling wrenches,so I asked my mate to ask "how much".He was told $10.
3 more stalls up were selling wrenches and I said to my mate,"don't you dare ask how much they are".
My wrench worked fine for what I needed,but I felt miserable.Hard to explain,but life sometimes is,isn't it?

[sportznut]

By the way Mo, how did you go with your other bets like top 4 & final 8?

These were mine. Pre season, I backed:
St Kilda - final 8: $60 @ $1.80
West Coast - final 8: $40 @ $1.57
Fremantle - final 8: $20 @ $1.85
Port Adel - to finish ahead of Adel: $20 @ $1.57
West Coast - to finish ahead of Freo: $20 @ $1.68
Then after a couple of rounds, I jumped on:
Essendon - final 8: $20 @ $1.50
Sydney - final 8: $20 @ $1.50

About 6 weeks ago, I had basically given up on the West Coast making the 8 or finishing above Freo, but they came good and I ended up making a profit of $95.80 or 47.9%. Could have been a heck of a lot better though, because I picked Port Adelaide for minor premiers and St Kilda for 'last team standing', but I was just too damn cautious to go ahead and back them.



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-08-31 21:18 ]</font>

[rabbitz]

On 2004-08-31 20:39, moeee wrote:
The thing is,Sportznut,you need to know what and why you are doing when you are doing it.
When I backed St.Kilda,the reason I did it so early was because I wanted to get set at a good price.
When I made the bets I thought I was doing just that,but in hindsight I stuffed up as I could have waited until now and got $7.
In fact had I waited until now I would have probably kept it in my pocket.

Here's a story for you.

I went to an outdoor market with my mate and the stall had a socket wrench for sale at $12 so I grabbed it.
Two stalls up they had the same wrench for $11.
Another three stalls up they were selling wrenches,so I asked my mate to ask "how much".He was told $10.
3 more stalls up were selling wrenches and I said to my mate,"don't you dare ask how much they are".
My wrench worked fine for what I needed,but I felt miserable.Hard to explain,but life sometimes is,isn't it?
Rabbitz wrote
Ya wrenchin'me heart out mo

[moeee]

My other longer range predictions went like this:

Geelong Final - 8
$20 @ $2.60
$20 @ $2.10 - Wins $54
Kangaroos Final - 8
$70 @ $2
$15 @ $2.75 - Loses $85
St.Kilda Final - 4
$25 @ $2.40
$70 @ $1.65 - Wins $80.50

Total of Profit $49.50

Still have a live bet of $20 @ $2.15,St.Kilda to make Grand Final.

[Mr J]

And that is where it is possible to make money from betting by analyzing these styles.

Mo make up your mind. You are always saying this way or that way is how you profit...one day it's using your gut, the next it's analysing playing styles???

Short and simple: The way to profit is to have more info than the market, or to be able to make better use of widely available information.

There are many ways to get an advantage in sports: inside information, stats and a greater knowledge of how they relate to each other and the sport involved, analysing matchups, home advantage, weather, injuries, shopping, etc etc.

However, anything to do with your gut does not provide an advantage.

[goldmember]

Why do they need to play for the next 3 weeks,just give the lions the trophy now !

[moeee]

On 2004-08-31 20:06, sportznut wrote:

Mo, how come you are acting like you've done your dough already.



Last night.That's why!

[rabbitz]

Dont grizzle about the lions everyone
it just cant be helped that they are so good
it looks like the first grade team are playing the presidents cup bottom four
I would like a kind bookie to give me good odds for five(5) flags in a row
Cheers

[moeee]

On 2004-09-04 11:27, Mr J wrote:

Mo make up your mind. You are always saying this way or that way is how you profit...one day it's using your gut, the next it's analysing playing styles???

However, anything to do with your gut does not provide an advantage.



You're right Mr J.
I certainly do keep changing my mind a lot.And I appreciate you pointing out this fact to me.
What I am doing is trying to come up with a system that works.
But I keep changing the rules before the ink has dried on the previous one.
But I would like to point out that it is the selection methods that I continually modify,but not the mathematically sound reasons for backing them.
My formulas work and work well,but I still have to investigate Jakelees input further.
As to the Vibe and the Gut factor.Sorry,but they do work.They are hard to incorporate into a computer program.
Things like a coaches inappropriate smile at an interview,bragging by certain players or punters(M/P),opinions of well respected judges.Heaps of other shit like that.
It all goes into our minds and gets churned up and means different things to each of us.
And that's the edge we have available to each of us.Interpreting these bits and pieces correctly.
2 points here and 1 point there and 4 points there can make a big difference to bet or not.
Yes I do change my mind a lot but being stubborn in a losing method is not my style.
But I can assure you I have had losing years because I changed styles in the wrong direction.
Thank you for you input.It helps me get back to present time and realize I have strayed once more.
One comment about the available data.A lot better men than I have spent many hours and analyzed this data and formed a market.Surely in my feeble attempts at analyzing this data,I couldn't possibly come up with something more accurate in a few hours.

[rabbitz]

Premiership odds
Lions $1.58
Port $3.75
Swans $11
Cats $12
Bombers $14
Saints $17
Cheers
P.S. To all those who scoffed at me for offering Lions $1.33,its only gonna shorten
you would think

[moeee]

On 2004-09-05 11:25, rabbitz wrote:
Premiership odds
Saints $17



Is this your price or did you see it somewhere?

[rabbitz]

These prices are currently at Sport odds
Hope you didnt back WILDLY
Cheers

[moeee]

Nothing Wild about my betting Saturday.
I done good.
What price did it start by the way?

[rabbitz]

about 3.70
cheers
I only had in a treble so no damage done
when ya see your old mate at the tab,give him heaps tho

[erikson]

Port looked alright
But the cats looked very ordinary wouldnt you agree.Brisbane will win flag ,there is no doubt whatsoever,with head to head betting on the day I would say you would get maybe $1.40
and Port?St Kilda ?Sydney? about $2.70,so the $1.60 on offer looks overs.Now dont jump up and down and say I or Rabbitz knows nothing about odds because that is what it will be.
The best reason to hold off is that you can roll your own start and get better than $1.60
on the day
Cheerio

[moeee]

Had a play with figures as to what the Grand Final quinella should pay.
Prior to the weekend I came up with these.

Port - Brisbane $3.90
Brisbane - St.Kilda $4.30
Brisbane - Geelong $8.80
Port - Geelong $8.80
Port - St.Kilda $14

Could someone please provide me with the going rates for these combinations prior to Friday.

[rabbitz]

Mo Congrats on your multi wins
The following are Unitab prices
Gf Quinella
Bris-Port $1.55
Bris -Syd $6
Bris -St k $7
Bris -Geel $8
Geel-Port $8.5
Ess-Port $12
Geel-Syd $20
Geel-St K $35
Ess-Syd $45
Ess-St K $50
Cheers

[moeee]

Pretty ordinary prices there.
This is now or prior to the weekend?
Need the before the weekend prices.

I mean when I say need,its not as though I need as in "I need to breath oxygen".Its more as in it'd be useful to have.
When I say useful to have,I don't mean that I can use those prices.Just satisfy my curiosity really.
When I say satis....

[sportznut]

Those prices are right now Mo.

Here are the prices for the premiership:

TAB Sportsbet:
BRIS $1.60
PORT $3.50
SYDN $11.00
ESSE $14.00
ST K $15.00
GEEL $16.00

IAS:
BRIS $1.72
PORT $3.00
SYDN $13.00
ST K $15.00
GEEL $15.00
ESSE $21.00

Centrebet:
BRIS $1.58
PORT $3.25
SYDN $12.00
ESSE $16.00
GEEL $16.00
ST K $18.00

By the way, this season's not even over yet but Centrebet's already got odds up for next year. Work that out!!!
BRIS $3.00
PORT $4.50
ST K $6.00
GEEL $13.00
ESSE $15.00
SYDN $15.00
ADEL $16.00
COLL $16.00
MELB $21.00
WCST $21.00
HAWT $34.00
FREM $41.00
KANG $41.00
RICH $41.00
CARL $67.00
WBUL $67.00

Who was it that wanted to know about the odds of the Lions winning 5 in a row? Well, if you have a multi-bet with Centrebet right now, you'd get $1.58x3 or $4.74.

[moeee]

Bout time you got out of bed Sportznut.

Crunched up the weekends results and have come up with these Quinellas.

Brisbane - Port $1.85
Brisbane - St.Kilda $6.10
Port - Geelong $8.50
Brisbane - Sydney $15.50
Port - Essendon $20

No chance any other combination.