A good staking plan for a new boy

[dingoboy]

Hi All,
This is my first post.
I have followed the horses only (no dogs) for years, i feel i can ususlly pick a few winners and usually end up with enough play money for the week by betting saturdays for a couple of hours. I just need a little help to see what would be the best "simple" staking plan to use, i have access to online wagering, just a little nervous about starting off with a bank and how big i should need it to be.
Any help would be apprieciated,
Thanks in advance !

[syllabus23]

Go to "Search" at the top of the page.Click in "staking plans",,bingo,,some excellent choices from some well informed people.

[davez]

cant go past - ORIGINAL RETIREMENT STAKING PLAN

http://www.grandstand.com.au/retirement.html

[partypooper]

Davez, have been looking at this one recently, one thing has me worried about it is, if say a losing run was broken by a short priced winner then another long run of outs was hit, (even though overall, there is a level stakes profit) this would surely take some nerve,.... or have I not understood it correctly?

[monkeyinjapan]

Partypooper, I think that any staking plan (and certainly level stakes) would lose under those circumstances. I'm a big fan of the retirement plan, and have been using it for a fair while.

The key to the plan, in my opinion, is to understand the role of the divisor, and to set up your betting strategy accordingly. I use the plan for "win" bets in my home state (Victoria) and again for interstate, and again for "place" betting, because my strike rate differs significantly for each. An accurate spreadsheet is a must.

[dingoboy]

Thanks heaps for your thoughts so far everyone, muchly apprieciated.
I have looked at the "retirement plan" as mentioned,...thanks for the link,
What (as i said i am new to this ) is the story with the increasing of the divisor, and am i assuming correctly that with this plan you are looking for a higher odds as you enter a loosing run, i cant quite seem to get my head around it.
One thing i did, and thats why im interested in a good staking plan, was to have 1440 bets in the period of Jan to Mar this year, only with 1/2 units, i kept track of ever one "on paper bets that is, no outlay yet" what i found was that on average, i could "pick" 44% of the winners, what worried me was that three times into this exercise i went 12, then 16, then 11 hypothetical bets without a strike,.... then whiska...i might get five in a row, do you guys and girls recon that 40-45 % strike rate would be ok to use with this retirement plan ? and if someone can sort of explain in laymans terms the two points in question.
By the way, the way i get the 44% strike rate (if that is any good) was to whatch the market move until the last 15-30 seconds whilst listening to the race, therefore avoiding any plunge in the market with scratchings, slow barrier entries etc, seemed to work ok,......thoughts on this???
Thanks again.

[Merriguy]

There is (and has been) a long discussion on Ausrace on the merits or otherwise of staking plans. Basically some swear by them; others maintain that if you can't make a profit on flat bets no staking plan will ever help. Myself, I am still undecided :???:

The debate, normally speaking, is about win betting. Has anyone any thoughs on applying a staking plan on place betting??? The relatively difficult task there, is, of course, that a loss takes a lot to recover from with such small dividends.

[davez]

On 2004-08-31 19:35, partypooper wrote:
Davez, have been looking at this one recently, one thing has me worried about it is, if say a losing run was broken by a short priced winner then another long run of outs was hit, (even though overall, there is a level stakes profit) this would surely take some nerve,.... or have I not understood it correctly?


hi pp, i have found that it is working so well for me because my average price winner is about $5.50, & I rarely bet under 2/1.

I would think that it is probably not the best plan for following the shorties because as you point out any long runs of outs would see your bets escalate quickly.

But I would be lying if I said I havent found it to be a godsend, probably because of the discipline it added to my punting. As I tell everyone that will listen - picking them is one thing, backing them is another.

[davez]

Hi Dingoboy - from my understanding the increasing of the divisor acts as a method of protecting your bank, so that once the divisor starts to increases the bets do not.

that is - my divisor is 9, after a run of 9 outs my bet is up to (for example) $50 & will stay there until i strike a winner or lose my bank (something i never come close to while using this plan).

As to your strike rate of 40-45%, this probably isn’t the important figure – what is your average dividend? If it is below say $3.50 - $3.00 this plan may not be your best bet.

[Hammers]

If you hit 45% winners they must be around the $2 - $2.50 mark.

I doubt any staking plan will help improve your figures. Most seem to thrive on striking a long priced winner now and then to help loss recovery.

If you are winning at level stakes, stick to it.

[Hammers]

If you hit 45% winners they must be around the $2 - $2.50 mark.

I doubt any staking plan will help improve your figures. Most seem to thrive on striking a long priced winner now and then to help loss recovery.

If you are winning at level stakes, stick to it.

[marko]

i can get 40% winning strike rate too 1 day of the bloody week maybe.Id like to see you pick 40% on a daily basis over any length of time even a week. In theory ,on paper, no worries,but try it with real cash and watch your 45% turn into 30% like most other pro tipsters.Or do you apply filters to your reasoning .I follow the shorteners too on ozbet(rip off merchants)but there are always quite a few and who knows if it is the sheep backing them in or knowledgable insiders.

_________________
NO SUCH THING AS A SURE THING

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: marko on 2004-09-01 22:16 ]</font>

[Shaun]

I have been around awhile and have seen a good many things....been punting for about 15 years and to be honest staking plans are like systems, every one has one......i have found that the best staking plan around is just to use percentage of bank for win or place does not matter....how ever for the place you could use a higher percentage...i would recomend 1-2 percent of banke for the win and up to 5 percent for the place....these amounts depend on your strike rate of cause this way if you are winning on a regualar basis then you will always be increasing your bets and bank balance.....depending on how often you bet i would say set the amounts like this...everytime your bank increases by 20% you adjust your betting level you could do the same for the decreasing part.....or just everyday before you start betting check your balance and bet to that bank percentage....good luck

[dingoboy]

Thanks everyone for all of your feedback,
Marko,..you are 100 % right about on paper, that is why i asked you fellas what you would recomend for a good staking plan.
As with watching the market movers, my little filters work very much the same as everone elses on this forum.
Look at recent last 4 starts, decent joc, DFS HAS to be 90 +, and first or second favorite,......see i got this far but needed a decent staking plan. I think Kenchar had some good ideas about filters and i have learnt a lot from those,
Watching the market movers i think is a reasonable show as to what is hot and what is not, especially if there is a "word" out about one. I dont follow them that close thats why i whatch them move on the market. I usually find that if it opens at around 5/1 or 4/1 and ends up at 3/1 or better in the last 30 seconds this will "SURELLY" run a hole,........on paper anyway.
I like the idea of these staking plans and especially the place versions,
Q: Would i back two for the place or just the one if i thought it would be a two horse race (which they never are)?
Thanks again for everones help.
PS i still cant work out what that "increasing of the divisor" means on the retirement plan,....i know,.....im stupid but im new to this.
Cheers

[syllabus23]

Mate,if you are picking 44% winners pack your bags and book yourself a Carribean cruise.After that,take a look around Potts Point and find yourself a nice mansion.Above all,dont tell anyone how you are doing it.

[Bhagwan]

Heres a staking plan thats very good for targeting short priced Mules.

CRUSHER STAKING PLAN
We bet 1 unit on our selections following race to race, keep betting 1 unit until a winner is stuck.

Now increase the bet to 2 units if we srike a winner ,if at this stage ,that we are in front , we start allover again.

If we are not in profit with our 2 units on a winner ,we increase it to 3 units until another winner gets up.

We only increase the bet once a winner is struck .
Keep doing this until profit has been gained.

What we are doing is trying to crush the figures in our favour.
Even a small level stakes loss will be turned into a profit ,if you dont run out of money.

Bank for this based on a 25% SR is $450

This plan works very well for place betting aswell.
Also Eachway betting.

[dingoboy]

Hi Bagwhan,
Thanks for your input.
I have actually been using another one of your place staking plans that i looked up on the forum, 1,1,2,2,3,3,4,4,5,5, etc the increase by TWO units on a win.
This has been working OK but the bank builds pretty slow.
I like this new new plan, ill give it a whirl and see.
I have toyed arround with the progressive staking plans like the old "add 50 % of your last bet after a looser" and regress when a winner is found, (works well at the pub saturday afternoon for the "snatch a profit and go" but i dont mix beer and punting so it is like win a quick one hundred and shout a few of the boys some drinks and go home 50 up and the wife is happy) this after the enevitable 12 run of outs emptied my profit bank and i had to start again, thats why i am trying the place systems with a reasonable strike rate. Like i posted, (and i have a lot of respect for your posts and information) my methods for picking either win or place is by the use of market movers, recent four runs, 90-100 pointers and a bit of luck, seems to get me 40+% win and around 70 % place, hence my intrest in a GOOD staking plan. I had a look at the "retirement staking plan" and all of the good folk on this forum tried to explain how it works (i have read it atleast ten times) i still cant get my head arround the "safety mechanism" nor the "increasing divisor" or more to the point if we increse the divisor, are we actually looking for a higher priced nag to put our units on, .....do i sound lost?.....
Thanks again for your help, if you have a laymans answer to the retirement plan (and i bet you will) could you please take the time to explain.

Cheers Dingoboy

[dingoboy]

Hi again Bhagwan,
Just a quick one in regards to the topic of your CRUSHER plan, do i read correctly.

1 loss
1 loss
1 loss
1 loss
1 win
2 loss
2 loss
2 win
3 win
4 loss
4 loss
4 win
5 win
in front,...rule off start again.
Thanks again.

[moeee]

On 2004-09-02 08:28, syllabus23 wrote:
Mate,if you are picking 44% winners pack your bags and book yourself a Carribean cruise.After that,take a look around Potts Point and find yourself a nice mansion.Above all,dont tell anyone how you are doing it.


Funny how the longer you have been betting the harder it becomes to pick winners.
Getting the drift of a two or more horses per race the newbie is selecting to achieve his 44% figure.

[dingoboy]

Hi Moeee,

Gday.

Im sorry, but are you taking the you know what out of me because i am new to this, i hope not,..mate i stated that all i was doing was having a go on paper, now i think i can make a go of it with real paper and i just asked for a few ideas on staking plans, i didnt ask for any one to pick them for me,... just a little direction on what you guys thought a gook staking plan ( and every one is right when they say the pattern changes when you bet for real )
What do you mean about picking two ?? im not into dutch betting if that is what you mean.

Tata for now, cheers.

[moeee]

You can read very well Dingoboy.
If you are picking 44% winners and put say,$100 on each of your selections,you should be making a good profit.
If you want to increase the profit,then increase the investment to $200.
Guaranteed 100% profit,no questions asked money back guaranteed.
Why ask for some kind of special staking system?

[dingoboy]

Moeee,

Gotchya !

Yeh i know, 44 % seems good to me to, it was my concern about the number of run outs over say 12 loosing wagers that i was concerned with cause my pocket arent that deep yet. Thats why i was looking for a good staking plan,...just to be on the safe side whilst i build my bank.

I think also that i might lean towards place betting rather than win as it looks a little safer,... your thoughts ?

Thank you for your point now that i read it correctly, i wasnt having a go at you, i just coulndt see your point.

Thanks the dingoboy.

[moeee]

There is a joke about the boy's family being so poor that they couldn't afford to buy toys.His mum had to cut holes in his pockets so he had something to play with.

If you have only a small Bank,you can only have a small bet.That's how it works.
I've been playing around,like many others,and come up with 2% of your betting Bank as the maximum investment.This will let you dive into your pocket 50 times before you find only your fingers!
And mate,if your coming up with 44% winners,don't forget this!.There will be occasions where you will be getting 12 winners and more in a row!
How about putting your tips up somewhere to show the others how good a tipster you are?
Like on Saturday who did you back?

[Bhagwan]

Hi Dingoboy ,
You have got the right idea about that staking plan.

If one has a 44% SR your expected run of outs would be 12 before striking the next winner.

If you are concerned about conserving limited resorce for punting ,you would be better off betting level stakes for the win.
Ratio 50:1
Remember ,NO BANK -NO CHANCE
Progressive betting of any kind ,requires a much larger bank than level stakes betting.

44% is a very high S/R that indicates to me that a lot are paying $2.90 & less .
You would need an average div. of $2.30 to break even.
So try not to bet mules paying any less than that figure .

I would suggest to try & target Mules paying $3.20+ because those short prices won`t get up forever ,which means there is a strong chance ,that you could take a while to claw back any possible losses & you will get them.
In other words if your selection indicates that it is going to pay less than $3.20 then no bet that race .
This is where the dicipline thing comes into it all.

Try & target races with 8-12 runners if place betting only.
Any less ,no 3rd div is paid.
Any more & the divs arn`t there to warrant the extra risk.

[dingoboy]

Thanks Bahgwan,

I agree that 44 % is high, takes discipline to only bet on the right stuff, as what you say, 8-12 horses, no maidens, no jumps,etc.
One thing that i use is the recent four starts, if anything doesnt fit in the "finished in top five" last 4 starts i leave this alone also. I cross referance this with the point system supplied by qtab, tab etc and as i stated before, if it is over 90, and meets my requirements above, ill have a go.
That is win bet though, as i said before i want to do place only and follow the same principles, the couple of staking plans that you have shown and one other that was shown to me on this forum i have been using now since my first post, they work OK. That is what i was looking for. The $3.20 for a win is spot on, i used a staking plan of 1,1.5,2.5,4,60 etc for a while on paper and did really well,...........until 12 out in a row and found that you need a minimum of that figure at least.
The place betting is now into its second week, started with 240 units, now bank 1 is up to 383 units,(6 betting days)and 240 in bank 2 is now 360. followed both your place plans, your idea of targetting second fav was also in the back of my mind.
One question i do have is,
If one builds ones bank progressivly, lets say to 4000 units, would you,
A:remove said bank and leave say a new bank of 500 units,.or
B:Keep punting ( re investing ) until the bets are rediculously high, would this effect the place pool if say a bet of 300 units were place onto a nag, would it be then worth it ?
Any way, thanks again for your input, look forward to your thoughts on those points.

Bewdy

[Bhagwan]

Hi Dingoboy,
Good to here that you are getting a strong result.
Those results of yours are excellent.

With place betting ,the betting pools have to at reasonable size if one where betting in say min $300.
If you were say, betting on dog or trot races ,you would end up making the div pay $1.00-1.10 every time. Because the pools are only a few thousand dollar.
With horses they are 10 or more times larger.

You will notice that weekend pools are larger than mid-week.

To answer your question, its a matter of suck it & see depending on the size of the pools you find yourselfe betting into.

[partypooper]

Dingo, just my 2 cents worth (being a place bettor myself) your rule about last 4 runs, finished in first 5 is a new one on me and sounds interesting. Though I wonder if a better result would be achieved by must have finished within 3.5kg's of the winner for all of last 4 starts rather than finishing position, i.e. 12th of 16 beaten 3 lengths, must be better than 3rd beaten 12 lengths???? just a thought.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: partypooper on 2004-09-10 18:01 ]</font>

[dingoboy]

Hi guys,.

Yeh, that makes sence Bhagwan, i look but never touch the dogs or the trots for that reason, place 1.04 no thanks. i understand what you say about the size of the pool, It makes it hard when two minutes before the jump you outlay your stake at say $1.70 and when the jump its down to $1.20, painfull. I guess to answer my own question and what you say,....put it on and see what effect it would have. Love your CRUSHER PLAN by the way BW, using it, loving it.

With regards to my method Partypooper, i have followed this way for years, it is just something that seems to work for me and seems easy,(time restraints) im sure everyone has their own way of selecting. what you say is interesting, i supose this is where my selections will come undone, if the one i like finnished 5th, 4th, 5th and 4th, the true test would be by how much, it could have been in a feild of six and the thing was eight lenghths back,....must read into this one i think. Problem for me is six days a week ,...the old form guide only gets a glance. I wonder how this would effect my stats if i restricted them to finishing 4th or 5th by say long neck, rather than just finished 5th ?, lot more reading i guess.

Thanks for your thoughts.
The Dingo

[Bhagwan]

Hi Dingoboy,
To simply explain the Retirement Plan.
Say we want to make 1% profit on $1000 bank=$10

The objective is to win $10 plus all losses incurred in the process.
The divisor on a loosing sequence would be
1,2,3,4,5,6etc.

If say we strike a winner at 2/1=$3.00
We deduct 2 off the divisor ,this would make our last divisor of say 6 now becoming 4 then 5 then 6 after further losses,until such time we strike another winner or a series of winners which results us making our $10 profit.
Then start again.

The idea is to find out what your average odds of your last say 50 wins .
Lets say its 2/1 .
It`s recomended that you double this figure to create what your min divisor will be .
In this case it would be 4 ,we never reduce below 4 in this case ,regardless of what the odds may be, this is designed to protect the bank & to help ensure the progression is not too aggresive.

The recomended objective in this case seeing our min divisor is 4 ,would be to target 4% of bank & starting again as soon as we are say 1% or more in front ,this is important,this protects the bank from blowing out.

If min divisor is 4 the sequence would look like this .
Bet-Divisor
1----(4)
2----(4)
3----(4)
4----(4)
5----5
6----6
7----7 Win 2/1
8----5 Win 2/1
9----4 (Min. bet reached,) Win 2/1
10---4 Win 2/1 Small profit .Start again

We always start agin if in profit even if the total objective is not reached, this is important ,especially if betting with large amounts.

One modification I like to recomend is ,deduct the price from prvious divisor instead of the odds ,this makes it slightly more aggressive & easier to reach your target .
E.G. say we are on divisor 10 , we strike a $3.00 winner , I would deduct 3 instead of the original idea of odds being deducted say, 2 as in 2/1

You will note that your selection criteria has to be able to almost break even at level stakes to make this process work .

[moeee]

On 2004-09-15 09:53, Bhagwan wrote:

You will note that your selection criteria has to be able to almost break even at level stakes to make this process work .



I suggest you write this paragraph one hundred times on your blackboard.
This is the essence of making money on gambling.
This system,that system,any system.
To beat the bookmaker you need a weapon.
That weapon is a set of evaluated prices.
Without a set of prices,or a system that factors in the available prices,you will either lose money(most likely) or win less than you could have.

[gizzard]

We always start agin if in profit even if the total objective is not reached, this is important ,especially if betting with large amounts.Sorry to bring up an old thread but it ties in with some tinkering I have been doing with the Retirement Staking plan.

This quote of yours Bhagwan, I have studied the Retirement plan and have never picked up on this. I know that you reset your divisor after a win but never realised that there was a rule for when a profit was made too.

Is this part of your own use of this plan or has it been in there all the time and I have somehow missed it?

[Bhagwan]

It has always been part of the original rules , if you look at their example , you may notice that the target never drops below the initial target as layed out .
E.G if the target is say $60 & we have only got $30 of it, it resets to $60 again , as you may have thought $30.

The reason for this is that it takes a lot more resourses to get the extra $30 .
You will find that the first half of the target is a lot easier to acheive than the 2nd half of the target.

[Merriguy]

Just thought it was time to re-visit a few old favourites from the "Betting Systems Forum". It seems to be lacking inspiration at the moment!

Anyway, a Happy Christmas to all.

[DR RON]

Agree wholeheartedly Merriguy, merry christmas to you and your family, a bit more positive stuff on the forum wouldn't go astray.

p.s Love your user name, don't mind getting a bit merri myself from time to time.