BROWNLOW PREDICTIONS

[marko]

I reckon Nick Riewoldt and Warren Treadrea for the quinella and the Roo as a roughie

[moeee]

Got something against the Eagles superstar,Chris Judd?
You being from WA,thought you might rate him a rough show.

[marko]

I actually think chad FLETCHER may pinch too many votes off Juddy.Besides I am a kangaroos man.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: marko on 2004-09-01 11:57 ]</font>

[erikson]

what about Simon Black $8

[hank bulger]

cameron ling

[racingnovice]

Nigel Lappin. Roughie Kane cornes( I think to many port players will poll votes for 1 of them to win).

I reckon its a hard year this year. Look at all the good chances then look at the team mates that will poll well to.

[goldmember]

Most brownlow votes for each team,any other chances:

ADELAIDE
M. Ricciuto $1.03
T. Edwards $12.00

LIONS
S.Black $2.50
N.Lappin $2.70

CARLTON
B.Fevola $2.40
M.lappin $2.50

COLLINGWOOD
J.Clement $3.50
P.Lucuria $4.50
N.Buckley $5.50
players not quoted $4.50

ESSENDON
J.Hird $1.65
A.McPhee $3.35
M.Lloyd $3.65

FREMANTLE
P.Hazelby $1.28
P.Bell $4.00

GEELONG
C.Ling $1.42
M.Scarlett $2.60

HAWTHORN
P.Everitt $1.05
L.Hodge $13.00
S.Mitchell $13.00
S.Crawford $13.00
players not quoted $9.00

KANGAROOS
A.Simpson $3.15
S.Grant $3.50
B.Harvey $4.00
D.Wells $5.50
players not quoted $4.25

MELBOURNE
J.White $1.35
C.Bruce $5.00

PORT ADELAIDE
W.Tredrea $1.22
C.Cornes $3.75

RICHMOND
M.Richardson $2.40
J.Bowden $2.55
N.Brown $3.00

ST KILDA
N.Rewoldt $1.22
A.Jones $7.00

SWANS
B.Hall $1.55
B.Kirk $3.75
J.Bolton $4.50

WESTERN BULLDOGS
S.West $1.04
L.Darcy $11.00

WEST COAST
C.Judd $1.18
C.Fletcher $4.50

[goldmember]

James Hird allup Barry Hall,is that a safe bet ?

[moeee]

On 2004-09-09 18:25, goldmember wrote:
James Hird allup Barry Hall,is that a safe bet ?


Supposing you are successful in that James Hird wins whatever it is you think he can win.
What is it that Barry Hall needs to do to give you a collect?

[goldmember]

sorry i had the odds up in the brownlow betting post, its to win each teams brownlow votes

[moeee]

In that case I think it will be very difficult to get set considering that the James Hird event and the Barry Hall event start and finish at the same time.
Suppose you can pretend that James Hird has won and invest the equivalent amount to be collected.
But if big,bad,bustling goes down,you lose more than you woulda hadda had,had they ran at different times.

[goldmember]

HIRD $1.65
HALL $1.55

Which do you think is the better bet

[moeee]

I can't answer your question directly Goldmember.But I'll put it this way.
Am on my way to the betting site to have something each way on Big,Bad for the Big One.Believe it's about 33-1.
Thanks for the tip!

[goldmember]

$8 a place, thats a good price i'll have something on that, and do you think Judd at $2 is a good thing for a place

[goldmember]

On sportstab they have a top 5 finish:

W.TREDREA $1.25
N.REWOLDT $1.28
C.JUDD $1.45
S.BLACK $2.25
N.LAPPIN $2.25
C.CORNES $2.75
C.LING $3.25
M.RICCUITO $3.25
J.AKERMANIS $4.25
M.SCARLETT $5.00
J.WHITE $5.00
J.HIRD $6.00
B.HALL $6.50
C.FLETCHER $7.00
L.POWER $7.00
S.WEST $10.00

[moeee]

On 2004-09-09 19:06, goldmember wrote:
$8 a place, thats a good price i'll have something on that, and do you think Judd at $2 is a good thing for a place


Hey what's going on here!
I just got back to tell you I put $20 on Bazza for a place at $8.

I'll tell you something Goldmember.
You should only bet for a place if you don't think it can win.
At one quarter the win odds,with 9 million runners,that even money is shocking value.
The true odds for a field as big as this,granted a lot of runners have no hope at all,is probably about 1/3 to 1/2 the win price.
Go through your list of individual team prices and see how many chances there are of filling a place.
Like,who would be surprised if Mark Riccuito ran a drum?
Hate to steer people off a collect,but with all good intentions at heart,either back him straight out or not at all.
And the other thing is you don't have to put as much on him for a nice collect.
And one more thing.Much more of an adrenalin rush on the Night when you back them straight out.
Then again,looking back at last years count,win OR place finalists weren't safe until the final couple of votes.

[goldmember]

Thanks moeee, i was just looking at all the different options,cant make my mind up, i'll probably have only 1 or 2 little bets to watch as an interest bet.

[moeee]

Didn't see your post on the top 5 prior to making my bet on Barry Hall.
Would have happily given away a point and a half to get the extra 2 chances of collecting.
Sportstab?.
Is that available in Victoria?

[goldmember]

Its the NSW TAB,you need an account with them at the moment, it'll be better when they merge completely

[mug punta]

Hird at $1.65 for most essendon votes looks like money 4 jam for mine. An absolute disgrace that he didnt get a gig in the all australian team.Hird should get around 15 votes and McPhee is the only threat.
Im not so sure about Barry Hall. I agree he SHOULD get the most votes but the boys in white hate him. I prefer Jude Bolton, a pinup boy if ever there was one, but, I wouldnt bet on Sydney most votes.
Richo looks a great bet for the tigers. He is guarenteed at least 6 votes for clear best on grounds against Sydney and Bulldogs and should get 2 votes against Pies in the 1st round. Minimum 8 votes at the pitiful tigers may well be enough.

[goldmember]

what team do you think will get the most brownlow votes ?

LIONS $2.10
PORT ADELAIDE $2.50
ST KILDA $3.25
GEELONG $15.00

$41+ the rest

[moeee]

That's an interesting betting proposition g/m.
As winning teams tend to get the most votes,it looks like they are the 3.
And because of the hidings dished out,St.Kilda will be in front for a long way.
Possibly run down by Brisbane towards the finish,but at the odds,I just might have a go at the Saints.
Port for third.
Thanks for the tip Goldmember.

[goldmember]

Does the brownlow votes work the same as the league, going under cover for the last couple of rounds ?

[sportznut]

It's undercover for EVERY round GM.

[goldmember]

Thanks sportz, i'll give them a miss, thats a lottery then, at least you can almost pick the top 2 or 3 in the league, i had buderus infront of finch most of the year,as finchy was in & out for part of the year.

[sportznut]

Last year I concentrated on the most votes for each team. I got 8 collects from 8 bets, most of them only around the $1.20 - $1.50 mark but they were all close to certainties. That's where you should bet. The top 5 also looks like a good idea.

[goldmember]

Thanks, i might load up on the ponies on saturday,watch the footy then multi my winnings on that option, rewoldt @ $1.22 looks the bet of the millenium

[moeee]

On 2004-09-14 17:45, goldmember wrote:
Does the brownlow votes work the same as the league, going under cover for the last couple of rounds ?


Fill me in.
What means undercover?
I watch the Count every year and never heard of this.

[goldmember]

Moeee, the 1st 22 rounds of votes are made public, then the last 4 rounds are withheld and not shown until the presentation night public

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-09-14 18:34 ]</font>

[moeee]

Gee!
That would eliminate most of the roughies.
You must have 26 rounds in NRL.
So that would mean after 18 rounds in AFL we know exactly how many points each player had.
Makes for a pretty quick count.Hardly worth watching due to minimum suspense.

[sportznut]

Guess what. The favourite still lost.

[goldmember]

Sportz, i follow the roosters, but i wouldnt have had HIM favourite

[sportznut]

I was just going on the TV News reports on the night of the awards. They were predicting that Brett Finch would probably win it. I must admit that did surprise me. I guess he must have been in front after Round 22?

[goldmember]

Yeah, his 2nd half of the season was outstanding, he only made up lost ground in the end, but against the warriors and eels in the last 2 games, he wasnt the standout pick and didnt poll well,gower had it in the bag last year when they were cancelled and if not for injury, would have got it this year

[moeee]

On 2004-09-14 17:59, sportznut wrote:
Last year I concentrated on the most votes for each team. I got 8 collects from 8 bets, most of them only around the $1.20 - $1.50 mark but they were all close to certainties. That's where you should bet. The top 5 also looks like a good idea.


Curious.
Supposing the selection was $1.20 in last years count.
If you wish to say,how much money would you place on a selection that short and how do you decide the amount of the investment?

[sportznut]

Mo, I'm not sure I should tell you because you'll probably think it's pretty stupid or boring.

Anyway, I'm not a huge punter, and I usually go for VERY 'safe' bets to simply try to make a nice little profit, certainly not squillions. I usually spend around $300 to $350 on the Brownlow Medal, but that's with about 10-12 different bets. The most I bet on any player is only $40. You probably think it's not worth betting on some of these small divs like $1.20, but in my opinion these players are pretty much over the line certainties and it's actually not bad value. People who are willing to bet much more than me could really clean up on these 'good things'.

I've dug out my records from the last 2 seasons and this is how I've gone with these Most Team votes:

2003
St.K - R.Harvey $40 @ $1.25 (WON $50)
P.Ad - G.Wanganeen $40 @ $1.35 (WON $54)
Ess - J.Hird $40 @ $1.40 (WON $56)
Frem - P.Bell $40 @ $1.40 (WON $56)
Syd - A.Goodes $30 @ $1.45 (WON $43.50)
Rich - M.Coughlin $20 @ $1.70 (WON $34)
Geel - C.Ling $20 @ $1.70 (WON $34)
WCst - B.Cousins $20 @ $1.80 (WON $36)
Out $250, In $363.50

2002
WCst - B.Cousins $40 @ $1.18 (WON $47.20)
St.K - N.Riewoldt $40 @ $1.20 (WON $48)
Coll - N.Buckley $40 @ $1.25 (WON $50)
WBul - L.Darcy $40 @ $1.25 (WON $50)
P.Ad - J.Francou $40 @ $1.28 (WON $51.20)
Kang - B.Harvey $30 @ $1.45 (WON $43.50)
Syd - P.Williams $20 @ $1.60 (LOST)
Ess - J.Johnson $20 @ $1.85 (WON $37)
Frem - P.Bell $20 @ $1.90 (WON $38)
Bris - S.Black $20 @ $2.10 (WON $42)
Out $310, In $406.90

Among my other bets, I did have $10 on Black to win at $9 in 2002 so that really helped the profit there. Last year I backed Buckley, but actually lost on the win bets because of course I only got a 3rd of the dividend.

[goldmember]

Was looking on another forum [sportpunter]and they have N.Lappin to defeat S.Black comfortably,
H2H $1.87 each
Most lions votes: black $2.60 lappin $2.70

Brownlow stats:
http://www.ozbet.com.au/lhtml/Brownlow2004/brownlow.htm

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-09-17 09:45 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-09-17 09:46 ]</font>

[moeee]

Thank you Sportznut for sharing that information.
Looks to me as though you sort of bet to profit by a specific amount of say $15 on each bet.
That is a very good system,but I think another good way is to bet to get back a certain amount.Including the amount staked.
Anybody have a comment on that?
Also Sportznut.
I attend TAB most nights,and I can just imagine you running around with a race every 3 minutes.
Unfortunately that is what I do!
Once I get inside those doors,I'm stuffed.
That's why I like sports betting.Nice and slow sitting in lounge chair watching the event.

[sportznut]

No, actually I'm not really like that Mo.

However, there is one guy at the club where I go who bets on pretty much every single gallops race that's run. He is a total compulsive gambler. He just can't let a race go by without betting on it. Most of the time he's an absolute basketcase, swearing and yelling and throwing his losing tickets all over the place. The thing is that the way he bets, he can't really expect to win very often, but he acts as if he should win every single race. He never bets on favourites. Okay, I can understand that, but then when the favourite wins, he carries on as if he's been terribly hard done by, even if he's bet against an odds-on chance. As for trifectas, that's totally amazing. Most of the time, he actually picks out trifectas in order. In other words, he puts just one horse for first, one for second and one for third... and believe it or not, he expects to win!!! The other day, he got 1st, 3rd and 2nd and was saying how unlucky he was. I felt like saying "no, you're just incredibly STUPID!!!"


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-09-17 13:36 ]</font>