Zip-Form

[partypooper]

Does anyone have detailed results of Zip-form ratings?? just something I'm working on that I will be happy to share with the forum, but need some past results to work with. I'm interested in all 4 Eastern States plus WA.

[Luckyboy]

partypooper,

I can't help you with WA Zipform, but here are a few facts from my Zipform monitoring over the past three years:

1. The top rated (not equal) Zipform horse has a strike rate of 21%;
2. The strike rate improves with horses having a 57 or greater Zipform rating;
3. The ratings are more reliable when the Zipform spread is greater than 7 (i.e. top rated 57, bottom rated 49);
4. 79% of all winners are rated within four points of the top rated horse;
5. Generally four points covers the top 6 rated horses.

These statistics are for S/M/B/A Saturday races not including 2YO, Hurdles, Steeples or Adelaide races below Class 6.

I’m a bit of Zipform fan, but do not use it in isolation. Typically, it is heavily weighted to a horse's last start (see Confectioner's rating for last Saturday) and does not account for barrier or jockey ability.


Cheers,
Luckyboy

[maverick1993]

Great stuff Luckyboy..have you ever researched the Unitab raters as well ?
I've been dissapointed with both lately but i find Unitab raters are better performed ex Sat and Wed i'd love to see some figures that support this.

[Chuck]

How bouta backing the top Zip rater is it the winner by more than 2 points - and it is also a Unitab rater by more than 4...could be interesting
CHuck

[partypooper]

Luckyboy, thanks for that , almost exactly what I was looking for.
taking the race restrictions you mentioned, and also 57+ clear top rated, what I need is POT/LOT figures, both overall and on a metting basis and on a weekly basis, if anyone can help?

I have started to keep a data base on this, but only a few weeks into it so some past results could tell us a lot.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: partypooper on 2004-09-07 12:38 ]</font>

[Luckyboy]

partypooper,

I have run the equation - Zipform top rater 57+ over the races in the post above for the period May 2001 to August 2004. The results:

2016 qualifiers
546 winners (SR 27.1%)
Average Dividend - $3.28
P/L $1 - (11.1%)

There are two filters that improves the P/L to a positive - API and Race Pattern(L,H,B).

Cheers,
Luckyboy

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Luckyboy on 2004-09-07 15:42 ]</font>

[Luckyboy]

maverick1993,

Sorry can't help you with UniTAB ratings being a Sydney boy...

I did a little work on the DFS ratings (supplied by NSWTAB and similar to UniTAB)some time ago and was unable to define any correlation between ratings spreads and horses that provided value.

Generally, I regard the various TAB top-raters as poor value as they are usually followed by the casual wagering customer.


Cheers.
Luckyboy

[partypooper]

Luckyboy, thanks heaps for that, just kinda confirms what I was thinking, I presume that LOT is for NSW tab??

[Luckyboy]

partypooper,

Confirming LOT is on NSWTAB.


Cheers,
Luckyboy

[partypooper]

Luckyboy, when you have time, drop me line please at:
Lumbasakabayo at hot mail dot com

[Luckyboy]

Chuck_3000,

I have followed this approach previously and suffice to say stopped because of lack of action and value.

Generally, Zipform top raters that have 2 or more points on the rest of the field are a dominant favourite. A recent example being Private Steer. It was 4 points clear, duly one by 3 lengths with a leg in the air and paid $1.60 (NSWTAB).

These are races I usually leave alone.


Cheers,
Luckyboy

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Luckyboy on 2004-09-09 17:29 ]</font>

[Top Rank]

ZIPFORM RESEARCH

Thought I would resurrect this thread to finally add something to the forum which may be of help to someone, I have'nt really give anything in my short time.

I have studied the Zipform ratings from the Sportsman for a long long time and here are some stats. which may benefit somebody.

When looking at the ratings find the races where there is a clear 1st, 2nd and 3rd pick. ie: 58, 57, 55 and then the rest of the field. No equals and in fields of 14 or less.

You will find the winner in approx. 65% of races with this top 3.

Top pick will win 30-32% of the time. Avg price - ($3.25-$3.30)

2nd pick will win 20% of the time. Avg price - ($4.25-$4.30)

3rd pick will win 12%-14% of the time. Avg price - ($6.25-$6.30)

I find it useful information knowing that I can bet in a particular race where this occurs and I will find the winner in top two selections 50% of the time.

I hope someone will find this information useful, perhaps the many new forumites looking for a place to start.

As we are well aware stats knowledge does not mean a profit but it is a good starting point.

Races are S/M/B/A. The stats are not broken down into individual states.
Any questions don't hesitate to ask.

Good Punting