The best staking system

[moeee]

Had a look at a staking method recommended by various people.
You know the one.Turn a break-even method into a 15% winning profit.
And yes,it can happen as they say.
HOW?
It all boils down to having more on the winning selections than the losing ones.
Now how does the system do this?.By putting more on the next event straight after a loss.
The rationale behind this is you can't lose forever.AND THAT IS TRUE.
But we all know that an even money chance in Race 6 is still an even money chance regardless of what happened in race 2 or 4.
So how come it is now worth investing more because the previous selection went down?
Well it's not!.It is worth whatever an even money chance is worth.

So this is the correct way to place your bets.
You really have to assess what price you think a selection should be.
How you do that is up to yourself,but the price has to be more accurate than the market assessed price.
And you then wager the amount in direct proportion to your assessed price percentage.
No doubling,no ifs or buts.

Another insightful post moeee. A very select few on this site will know where you are coming from, but all your recent posts have the same theme. I'm punting you may have liked a little nag called Galvanized at the weekend, didn't win, but second at criket score odds ain't bad.

[moeee]

On 2004-09-06 15:08, moeee wrote:

This is the correct way to place your bets.
You have to assess what price you think a selection should be.How you do that is up to you.
You then wager the amount in direct proportion to your assessed price percentage.



You divide the price you reckon it should be into 100.
That gives you the percentage equivalent.
For example you think a horse should be at $2.50 then 100/2.50 = 40%.
You then multiply your betting unit by this percentage.
So if my Bank is $10,000.And I think 2% of my Bank is a suitable betting unit,then 2% of 10,000 is $200.

And 40% of $200 is $80.
But you must get a price over what you think the animal should be.At least 15% over.So in this example,no bet below about $2.90

[moeee]

On 2004-09-06 19:35, hyde wrote:
I'm punting you may have liked a little nag called Galvanized at the weekend, didn't win, but second at criket score odds ain't bad.



You lose.
I don't bet on horses.YET!
Have been looking at greyhounds but the pools are so small with 3 minutes to go it is very difficult to assess whether you are going to get over the rated price!

[puntz]

Agreed moee.
YOUR ratings = YOUR prices when converted.

If YOUR best pick is rated as YOUR fav, but the markets is 3rd Fav. That's YOUR bonus if it wins.
certainly makes sense cos who cares what the majority may market the field.

There is a formula that converts ratings to prices. Interesting concept by the way.
Problem is, how one rates their selections determines the fields market.

[moeee]

When you decide what price you think an animal should be,it's not a matter of simply pulling a number out of thin air.
It needs to be accurate.
If we added up each horses winning chance together it has to tally 100%.
Whatever method you use,get the selections in order of the best winning chance to the least winning chance.
Then imagine this event were to be run 100 times.
Knocks and bumps and luck and timing and a million unforeseen events will and do cause a different finishing order every time.
Next to each horse,write down the number of times you think the horse would win out of these 100 races.
The total has to add up to 100,so you will need to add to some and subtract from some until it looks about right.
You now have a set of percentage win chances for each horse.Divide each chance into 100 and you now have the minimum dividend you should accept.

G'day moeee. Have you ever been to early morning trackwork? If you haven't then I suggest you do because you will quickly find that you need to put in the shyster factor into your system.

[moeee]

Now I'm starting to read things that aren't there.
Are you saying that the racing industry is corrupt?
Not only corrupt,but to the degree that the patrons of racecourses are blatantly being corrupt?
Or do I have an erroneous definition of a shyster.
Yes Hyde,I think like that sometimes too.
Because I aren't capable of comprehending how a rocketship works,it's not possible that man has walked on the moon.

[darkydog2002]

With overlay betting their are a couple of FREE sites that that give a "proffessionally assed price range".
I have found that they vary considerably and in almost 90 % of cases their top rated horse is UNDER the assessed odds.
A very long time between drinks if one were going for their top rater.
Cheers.
darky.

[moeee]

But that is the beauty of it.
There is no reason to go for the top rater.
Except that it will get up more often than those lower down the list.
But because those lower down will be at longer prices,the wager will be smaller and able to endure a longer run of outs.
Backing two 5 to 1 shots is like backing one 2 to 1 shot.

[darkydog2002]

Moeee.Theres some truth in what you say but the recommended wagering FROM these sites is to concentrate on the top rater at 15 - 18 points and as good or better than their assessed price.
Following that recommendation as I say is a long time between drinks as in 90 % of cases they are lower than their assessed price.
Probably better to follow YOUR advice I think.
Cheers.
darky.

[xptdriver]

Gday All..
Betting the overs... now ya talking...

IMHO it is the only way to bet and make a profit consistently. Not sure about 115% of YOUR assessed price tho. I think a good safe way go for 150% of YOUR assessed price ( or your ratings provider's price)

I don't concentrate on the horse I rate on top... my ratings aren't that good to be able to make a profit by doing that. The way I have found successful for me is concentrate on the horses I have rated between $1.10 and $9.90 and bet only if I can get 150%. My minimum div is $3.00 I won't bet odds on or take under 3 bucks. It has served me in good stead. The thing to remember with ratings is they are an indication only.. Some days good some days ordinary..... ah but thats the punt.

[Bhagwan]

Heres a simple method of rating a price of your own.

Jot down the win percentage of the
5 pre-post Favs from a Good track condition performances only. (I have found this a good way of comparing apples with apples.)

In other words ignor it`s past performance over Fast, Dead, Slow & Heavy tracks only target it`s wins on a good track.

Once you have the percentages ,convert to a price.
This is how I do it.
E.G. 50% win on good track conditions only, would be 100 divided by 50=2/1 chance or $3.00.
40%=2.5/1=$3.50
30%=3.30/1=$4.30
25%=4/1=$5.00
20%=5/1=$6.00
10%=10/1=$11.00

You will notice I have rated the percentage outcome 1 point higher than expectation to its past history, if history were to repeat itself.
We are trying to instill some value here.

Bet all these Mules if price is same or longer than your accessed market.

Try this out on Fields of 8-12 runners only,where the whole field has had 2 starts+
Otherwise no bet that race.

[Bhagwan]

Hi XPT
I tend to agree with that .

Another simple way of framing your own market is take the prices from the newspaper & deduct 0.5-1 pt off the price shown, treat the shortest price as a min of $3.20 even if it indicates shorter than that.

Focus on the 1st 5 pre-post Mules

[Bhagwan]

Once you have jotted down your 5 priced accessd mules to your price that it needs to be, we now divide our price into say $15
e.g. if your accessed price is $5.00 we divide that into the said $15=O/L$3.00 on that mule if its paying greater than $5.00
Another in the same race may be say
$7.00=O/L$2.00

Do the same for the others if the actual price shown before jump, is greater than our assecced price

If all are paying more than your assecced price, bet all 5 (rare)