Making a Book Against The Bookmaker

[Bhagwan]

Heres a simple method of rating a price of your own.

Jot down the win percentage of the
5 pre-post Favs in the newspaper, from a Good track condition performances only. (I have found this a good way of comparing apples with apples.)

In other words ignor it`s past performance over Fast, Dead, Slow & Heavy tracks.
Only target it`s wins on a good track.

Once you have the percentages ,convert to a price.
This is how I do it.
E.G. 50% win on good track conditions only, would be 100 divided by 50=2/1 chance or $3.00.
100%=1/1=$2.00
40%=2.5/1=$3.50
30%=3.30/1=$4.30
25%=4/1=$5.00
20%=5/1=$6.00
10%=10/1=$11.00

You will notice I have rated the percentage outcome 1 point higher than expectation to its past history, if history were to repeat itself.
We are trying to instill some value here.

Bet all these Mules if price is same or longer at jump time, than your accessed market.

Try this out on Fields of 8-12 runners only,where the whole field has had 2 starts+
Otherwise no bet that race.
It`s also a good idea to only target those races where the TAB Fav is paying $3.00+ ,otherwise ,no bet that race.
Bet the same amount on each,level stakes.

The bookmaker has to price the whole field on every race ,we have the distinct advantage where we dont have to .

The 5 pre-post faves make up approx 65% of all winners especially in races with 8-12 runners.
We target fields where they all have had at least 2 starts so that we have some form to go on & also to avoid low class fields.

You could also use the 5 selections in Best Bets following the same criteria, their top 5 have a strong hit rate also .
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Cheers.

[Bhagwan]

To make the process simpler .
Just divide the number of times it won at good tracks by its number of starts on a good track e.g. 5 starts for 2 wins=2.5/1=$3.50

Even if todays track condition is different to good,we still rate the figures purly on it`s good track performance.

If you try & rate it on say wet tracks ,using wet track form,it does not work well.

One might prefer to use the final figure as a price instead as odds ,so as to create more bets.
e,g 5 starts on good track divided by say it`s 2 wins =$2.50+ required

[puntz]

Nice system Bhags.

For wet tracks, how about trying the outside runners, say from barrier 5 onwards 1400m Max ?