NFL

[AssumeTheCrown]

The NFL 2004/2005 season starts this week. Does anyone have any thoughts as to who might win the next Superbowl?

I follow Tampa Bay who won it 2 years ago but dont know how they will fare this year. I think that the Indy Colts will be hard to beat this year if they have improved their defence.

The good thing about betting on the Superbowl winner is that with 32 teams in the competition the odds are great. I have bet on several teams to win it - Indy, Seattle, Minnesota, NY jets, Green Bay, Tampa Bay.

I think that Seattle might be the smokies this year. I got odds of 34.0 a few months ago and they are now as short as 12.0 after a good preseason. I also think that the 26.0 on offer about Minnesota is great value.

I think that Indy and Seattle will play off in this seasons Superbowl.

[moeee]

Stick your Yankee crap in your hankee,chap.

Waiting for the opening prices on this years fly wall crawling championships,meself.

[goldmember]

We get a weekly report on the BSB from Dick [Fein ?]who is the leading sports journalist from the USA and he is from seattle and said a while back they were a real chance this year, i always listen to him as he is very astute.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-09-08 17:19 ]</font>

[AssumeTheCrown]

Thats pleasing to know goldmember. I hope his mail is on the mark but I guess there may be some bias with him coming from Seattle.

Its interesting to note how much these blokes get paid compared to AFL players. An ordinary NFL player can get $10 million AU a season which is far greater than what the best AFL player would get. I guess it is much the same when comparing American baseball and European Soccer wages with Australian sports.

[goldmember]

He isnt really biased, any reports i hear i'll pass them on, he was spot on in the NBA last season,[ didnt tip the SONICS] and a lot of the NFL leading up to last years superbowl.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-09-08 17:55 ]</font>

[rabbitz]

I bet you Moee if you put your mind to it and followed a bit of form youd make more money on the yankee crap than you would following dishlickers
Cheers

[Floydyboy]

Do you mainly do spread (points start) betting with the NFL

[sportznut]

AssumeTheCrown, that $34 about Seattle IS good value. Last year two of the teams I backed made it to the Super Bowl. Carolina ($81) would have been a GREAT result, but New England ($23) was still good. Can't really expect to do that well again.

I find this a good place for NFL info:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2004/magazine/08/30/main/index.html
They preview each team and all the results and 'Dr Z' ranks them all from 1-32. Normally, they are fairly close to the mark too, but for your sake, I really hope they're wrong about Tampa Bay!!!

And I find these guys are pretty good tipsters as well:
http://www.bettingzone.co.uk/us_sports/betting/story_get.dor?STORY_NAME=betting/04/09/08/manual_162052.html
I must admit that's actually where I got the tip for Carolina last year.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-09-09 09:14 ]</font>

[sportznut]

Mo, I personally find Gridiron to be a silly, boring sport, but that doesn't mean I won't bet on it. Because it's an american sport, you can find LOADS of free info and tips to help you out. Also, there are stacks of games to bet on each week and as AssumeTheCrown said, with 32 teams, you can get some real value on the Super Bowl.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-09-09 10:42 ]</font>

[moeee]

Just because something is available is a pretty piss poor reason to partake in it.
I do need to fill the punting void created by the seasonal demise in AFL,but not at the expense of sitting through an event that I dislike.Or worse still,an event that I cannot get to see.
And that is the key to my punting.If I don't have the opportunity to watch my money go round,it's better off in the bank.

You wait Rabbitz!
I'll crack them greyhounds.It's just those paltry pools,and wildly fluctuating dividends that make it difficult to get overlays.

[sportznut]

I don't have Pay TV, so there's a lot of stuff that I bet on that I don't get to see.

[moeee]

At this point in time,if I had to rely on my profits from gambling to survive,then I wouldn't,(survive).
So there is another force that compels me to gamble.And it is the satisfaction of being right.More than that.It's the satisfaction of seeing myself be right as opposed to being told that I was right.
Probably need a complete paradigm shift in as to what is important in life.
Sort of toying with the idea of stapling myself to a 160 year old gum tree in Gippsland.(That's a once very woody forest area of Victoria.)

[Floydyboy]

Im with you Moeee ....Save the forrests

[moeee]

So what did you do with the chainsaw then?

[Floydyboy]

I used to get fallen stuff fom the bush I lived at hornsby lotsa bush round there

[rabbitz]

On 2004-09-09 11:33, moeee wrote:
Just because something is available is a pretty piss poor reason to partake in it.
I do need to fill the punting void created by the seasonal demise in AFL,but not at the expense of sitting through an event that I dislike.Or worse still,an event that I cannot get to see.
And that is the key to my punting.If I don't have the opportunity to watch my money go round,it's better off in the bank.

You wait Rabbitz!
I'll crack them greyhounds.It's just those paltry pools,and wildly fluctuating dividends that make it difficult to get overlays.

I hope youre right moee but you know sometimes its less stressful to put your bet on go to bed and wake up to the sweet sound of profit.Dont get me wrong I dont mind Greys
and you usually know pretty quickly if you are going to win the race.A mate of mine loves them and cant understand how anyone can take even money in a cricket match and then wait 5 days to get the cash,whereas with greyhounds the race is over in around 30 secs and then all you're waiting for is correct weight
cheers

[Floydyboy]

so whats the call on the Indpolis v New England game fellas

[rabbitz]

Floydy New england -3.0 =$1.85 or H2H=$1.55
Cheers

_________________


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: rabbitz on 2004-09-09 13:17 ]</font>

[Floydyboy]

well there ya go Ive gone with you this time but I was just looking at that 2nd site that Sportz put up and their bet is Indi +3.5

[AssumeTheCrown]

Thanks for that Sportznut.
I will be cheering hard for Seattle even though Tampa Bay are my team.

You did well to get great odds about Carolina last year and they came close to winning it. I like Carolina and have a lot of time for their coach John Fox. They are in with a chance this year.

[sportznut]

Actually, New England are the team that I've sort of followed for quite a few years now. Not fanatical about them though.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-09-09 15:59 ]</font>

[Mr J]

Its interesting to note how much these blokes get paid compared to AFL players. An ordinary NFL player can get $10 million AU a season which is far greater than what the best AFL player would get.


Not really. First of all an ordinary NFL player does NOT get $10 mil AU a year. Ordinary players vary from about 1 mil to a few mil. Still, it's much more than in AFL etc and here's why:

NFL is the sole commercial code of footy in a country of 280 million. AFL is just one of 4 codes in a country of just 20 million.

[goldmember]

I use the CBS site http://www.sportsline.com, great site to watch live scoring of all NBA games when there not shown on ESPN on foxtel, they also have NFL MLB NHL NCAA PGA TENNIS

[moeee]

Floydyboy.About the chainsaw.I meant recently.

And Mr J,if you weren't so right all the time,I'd reckon you were just a know-it-all.

[Floydyboy]

dont know havent had any cold weather recently

[rabbitz]

On 2004-09-09 13:46, Floydyboy wrote:
well there ya go Ive gone with you this time but I was just looking at that 2nd site that Sportz put up and their bet is Indi +3.5

Well they were right
New England 27
Indianapolis 24
Now the odd thing is,is that I took New England -3.0,so they didnt lose and didnt win
but according to my multi the bet is still live,I dont understand why they didnt have 1/2 point option on that game
Cheers

[Mr J]

And I had colts +3.5 :wink:

Rabbitz, here's a tip:

When the line is at 3, buy half a point if it costs you 20 cents or less.

E.g, buying from Patriots -3 -110 (1.91) to Patriots -2.5 -130 (1.77).

When games a lined at 3, a push will occur over 11% of the time.

[sportznut]

It's stupid for them to put up a line bet with no extra 1/2 point for insurance.

Anyway, I also backed the tip for the 3.5 start on that game. 3 points is a fairly common margin in NFL.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-09-10 20:45 ]</font>

[rabbitz]

So if you take start that doesnt have a 1/2 pt in it and its a draw(with start)then your bet wins,weird
Cheers

[sportznut]

No, it's not a win and it's not a loss. It's called a 'Push'. You simply get your money back. I reckon it's stupid. I think they should always have an extra 1/2 point on the line to make sure that punters either win or lose.

[Mr J]

But Sportz they can't. The number 3 is HUGE, and an extra half point can create alot of value.

Rabbitz, my advice was to buy the half point when you're on the or around the 3.

E.g, when your team is at -3, if you can buy onto the -2.5 for 20 cents or less, do so.

When your team is at +3, if you can buy onto the +3.5 for 20 cents or less, do so

When your team is at +2.5, if you can buy onto the +3 for 20 cents then do so.

When your team is at -3.5, if you can buy onto the -3 for 20 cents, do so.

Your standard price in american odds is -110. This is the same as 1.91. When buying 20 cents, your price in US odds moves from
-110 to -130 (20 cents). In decimal odds, you are buying from 1.91 to 1.77.

SO, when looking to buy that extra half point, make sure the book never charges more than -130 or $1.77.

This is ONLY when buying on/off the 3.

You should also buy on/off the 7,14 and 17, but only if they charge you 10 cents or less. E.g, buy from +7 to +7.5, from -14.5 to -14 etc.

This is only the beginning when it comes to buying points in the NFL, great value around.

Also, there are plenty of books offering a free half point, most only on certain days of the week though. Great news here is that you don't need to buy points, you get them for free.

[Sportz]

So how has everybody gone with NFL futures bets this year? I'm feeling pretty good at the moment because my two biggest bets were on New England at $7.50 and Philadelphia at $8.50 and they've both made it through to the big one. I also had a smaller bet on Seattle at $15 but after a good start, they didn't do nearly as well as I thought they would. Good when things work out like this. Makes up for all the stuff-ups.

[mug punta]

Gday all. Haven't been punting much, just waiting for the AFL to restart!!
Hope ur cleaning up on those dishlickers Mo. I havent bought one yet but have been learning a fair bit.
I backed Indy to win the Superbowl, early on, but the Pat's put an ugly end to that.
Well done Sportz. It's lovely when you can't lose watching a sporting event.
Expect the Pat's to be too good, but as I learnt with the Power this year, maybe the fact that they are finally in the big one all their nerves will be diminished and they can break free in the big one. Would like there chances a lot more if Terrell Owens wasn't injured though