TAB NUMBER 1 SYSTEM

[noel]

here is a little system i developed from ideas that others have contributed to this forum.... i've only tried it over a limited number of bets but its running at about a 40% win strike rate and 40% pot, based on unitab divvies .....given most selections are short priced, it would probably do a lot better getting best fluc from a bookie

one disadvantage is it is low action, only getting about 5 bets per week (only one bet so far this week, a winner @$2.70) ...anyway i'll post the rules and start with a clean slate today and see how it goes ....

1. must be tab number 1
2.last start winner
3. allocated weight of at least 2.5kg above the next weighted horse.
4.must be pre-post favourite

applies to all races
this is a "set and forget system", so i've only counted scratchings if they actually appear in the morning paper ....others might like to check on other scratchings to see if they make tab number 1 a qualifier (e.g if tab no. 2 is scratched that makes tab 3 2.5kg below tab 1)

todays only selection is cairns race 6/ junkets (which is interesting as it is the first "first upper" the system has selected)

[noel]

results so far ....

fri 10/9 - junkets unp

sat 11/9 - kembla race 6 and shintaro 3rd
morphetville race 4 full spec 2nd

3 bets, no winners we'll keep trying...

[darkydog2002]

Noel.Why confine this system to pre-post favorites?
My reasoning being that prepost favs only win around 33 % leaving 67 % possible winners out.
Cheers.
Darky.

[moeee]

On 2004-09-10 10:20, noel wrote:

1. must be tab number 1
2.last start winner
3. allocated weight of at least 2.5kg above the next weighted horse.
4.must be pre-post favourite



5 bets a week is plenty.That's a bet every day by my reckoning.Surely you can't bet every day and still not be satisfied?

Got some improvements for you Neil.
1.Sometimes horses become TAB number one because their name starts with an "A".
This used to apply in set weight races.I think they now assign numbers based on prize earnings.
Anyway my suggestion is to only consider a race where number 1 is number 1 because he should be.
2.I like this rule.Gets rid of maidens.
3.Well this rule has just made a mess of my suggestion for rule 1.
4.Your rules are solid.Well I suggest a rule 5.
5.Do you feel comfortable taking the available odds about this selection.

[Mr. Logic]

I'm wondering how you work out the prepost favourite. Do you use tote odds? In which case you might get a different favourite to the bookmakers. Do you use a paper? Prepost favourites are not the same in every paper.

[noel]

mooee,

tab number 1, 2.5 kg clear of the next horse indicates its potential superior class ....alphabetical wouldn't come into it because there can only be one horse in this position .....the selections will almost always come in handicaps and set weight with penalties type races ....it may make an odd selection in a wfa race where it is say the only 5 yr old in the race and the rest were 3 yr olds ...

prepost is based on my local paper (nt news, which is the same as the australian)...these do sometimes vary, i suppose its just the luck of the draw ...it was only meant to be a quick system to pick out of the morning paper ....

selections wed 15/9

belmont race 3 - my leo
morphetville race 8 - brackenbury bill

cheers,
noel,

[moeee]

Yes I understand.
If you look at my comment about rule 3,you will see I understand.
I'm pretty sure,Noel,that you are in it for the sake of something you find amusing rather than profitting financially.
Good on you Noel.And remember to apply this.If it's no longer fun,walk away.
It will still be there tomorrow.

[noel]

results wed 15/9
my leo, won $2.50.....brackenbury bill, unp
5 bets, 1 winner, ret $2.50, lot = 50%

selection thu 16/9

cranbourne race 1 - hotter than hell

[noel]

result thu 16/9....hotter than hell 2nd
results so far 6 bets, 1 winner, return $2.50 lot 58%

not going real flash at the moment, however place betting you'd be almost even (return $5.70)...i'll perservere a bit longer

selection fri 17/9 ....quirindi race 1 gold maiz

[noel]

results fri 17/9 gold maiz 3rd

sat 18/9 eagle farm race 1 huddle 2nd
morphetville race 1 fraar noon won $3.50
oxford dollar won $2.60

sun 19/9 queanbeyan race 6 northern planet unp, devonport race 3 west quest boy 2nd

total, 12 bets, 3 winners, ret $8.90, lot 26%

[noel]

sel thu 23/9

lismore race 7 arena valadora

[noel]

result 23/9 avena valadora won $5.30

results now 13 bets, 4 winners, return $13.90, pot 7% ......system has finally hit the front after a poor start, let's see if it can stay there....

selection fri 24/9 toowoomba race 6, rapt in silver ...

[noel]

res fri 24/9 selection scratched
sat 25/9 my leo 2nd
14 bets, 4 winners, return $13.90....back in the red

[noel]

sel thu 30/9
goulburn race 3 kiss my fuji

[Merriguy]

Nice winner today, Noel. Puts you in front. Almost didn't back it. Thought you had done your calculations wrong --- then noticed Tab 2 was scratched. :grin:

[kenchar]

On 2004-09-30 09:34, noel wrote:
sel thu 30/9
goulburn race 3 kiss my fuji


That nags name reminds me of what my wife likes me to do. :grin:

[noel]

result thu 30/9 kiss my fuji won $1.80

15 bets, 5 winners return $15.70 pot 4%

given this is based on unitab divs only i'm sure the bottom line could be lifted enormously getting best fluc or even best tote price ....

cheers,
noel

[enjay]

Just a variation to this idea...

Results for past 12 months.
Meetings considered : 123
Win Strike Rate/Seln. : 37.1%
Plc Strike Rate/Seln. : 71.0%
Average Win Dividend : $3.57

WIN PLACE
Races Bet : 62 59
Races Won : 23 41
S.R./Race : 37.1% 69.5%
Outlay ($): 62.00 59.00
Return : 82.00 69.68
$ Profit : 20.00 10.68

% P.O.T. : 32.3% 18.1%

RULES ARE SYDNEY ONLY EVERYDAY.
Race Field Size: 1 - 18
Venue: Sydney
Age of Horse: 1 - 8
TAB Number: 1 - 1
Weight to Carry: 56.0 - 67.0
Days to Last Start: 1 - 21
Last Start Finish Posn: 1 - 1
Won at This Course: Y

Cheeers
Enjay

LRO 6 this year -- 3 last year.
enjay



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: enjay on 2004-10-01 23:15 ]</font>

[Squirter]

Yeah enjay,

Grand Armee to-day, but I think she's scratched.

[noel]

sel sat 2/10 murtoa race 6 hell he goes won $2.30 (yes, grand armee scr)

16 bets, 6 winners, ret $18, pot 12%

getting better, its a good indicator too, that the place strike rate is very high, the only problem is selections are usually short, so its important to get best price...i'll start basing the divvies on the best price according to the racing and sports
result page which lists sp and the 3 tote divvies

cheers,
noel

[noel]

sel tue 5/10 bathurst race 1 kowloon connection
kyneton race 7 medium swing

[noel]

results tue 5/10

kowloon connection won $2.50 - supertab
medium swing scratched

prog total -
17 bets, 7 winners, return $20.50, pot 20%

[jacfin]

Thanks for the inspiration, Noel.
I have come up with a variation on your system which, over the last two days, has had the following results.
20 bets 6 winners 16 placegetters
Win profit 15 units
Place profit 12 units
I'll post the rules under a separate heading - Jack's No 1 system - tonite Perth time.

[noel]

sel thu 7/10 rockhampton race 1 cearnaigh

[noel]

result thu 7/10 cearnaigh won $2.20

total

18 bets, 8 winners, return $22.70, pot 26%