My $5000 worth of Brownlow Bets

[fry]

I don't usually bet this high but thought i would try my luck because i've always been interested in doing professional gambling and such. Anyway what do you think of my bets?

$1000 James Hird Top Score for Essendon
$1000 Rewoldt Top Score for Saints
$500 Riccuto to finish Top 5
$2500 Tredrea to finish Top 5

If i get all i aim to get $7850

[horsewithnoname]

Have you had these bets yet?

[fry]

yeah... eeek do you recon i just threw my money away?

[horsewithnoname]

On 2004-09-17 22:15, fry wrote:
yeah... eeek do you recon i just threw my money away?


doesn't matter wot i recon...you're already on....good luck

[sportznut]

On 2004-09-17 22:15, fry wrote:
yeah... eeek do you recon i just threw my money away?


I think you should be fairly safe with those 4 bets (I've backed 2 of them), but $5000 sure is a heck of a lot of money if you're not totally sure.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-09-20 23:57 ]</font>

[moeee]

Top 5 Riccuito?
No Chance.

Tredrea
Judd
Riewoldt
Black and/or Lappin

Hey there could be some room!
You would want at least 6 to 1 though.

[sportznut]

I think Ling could be a good chance for the Top 5.

[mug punta]

4 of them look like locks to me and the "Roo" bet is a good speculative bet.
He's probly been even better than last year but the only worry is the fact that they havent won enough games

[Mr J]

Well first of all you are probablly overbetting.

[maverick1993]

i agree Mr J..you were better off backing the one you were most confident about for $5000 and your returns would of been more as well.
But good luck just the same :smile:

[Mr J]

No, what I mean is you probally should've bet less.

The amount you stake on each bet should be related to the odds of the payout, and the size of your edge.

Also, your've bet on alot of BIG faves, which are hardly ever good bets. The bookies will shade these guys (ie offer a lower price than they should) as the public will unload money on them (and the bookies will clean up if the big favourites lose).

Using sportstab prices, this is what edge you needed to justify those stakes:

"$1000 James Hird Top Score for Essendon"
- 12% edge.
Ie he'd have to win this at least 70% of the time for your bet to be mathematically justified.

"$1000 Rewoldt Top Score for Saints"
- 5.6%.
He'd have to win this 82.5% of the time.

"$500 Riccuto to finish Top 5"
- 25%.
He'd have to win nearly 36% of the time.

"$2500 Tredrea to finish Top 5"
- 12.5%
He'd have to win 90% of the time.

As to winning all, even if you did have an edge this large on all of your bets, the chances you'll win all 4 are just 18.7%. You'd have a 51% chance of winning all the shorter priced 3. This is only if you had these sized advantages. In reality, you probally have much less or no edge at all.

Your most likely result is 3/4, with the shorter priced 3 all winning and Riccuto losing. You'll profit not far off half the time, the rest of the time you'll lose quite a bit (more than you won).

Why'd you choose these bets anyway?

[mug punta]

Really enjoy reading the way you go about it Mr.J. Im learning everyday about changing my approaches and though processess towards gambling. Thanks

[sportznut]

Most of my players are going shocking so far.

Note to self: Never ever consider anyone other than a midfielder in future. Never ever pick a forward, no matter how dominant a year they seem to have had. :roll:

[mug punta]

Wont say i told you so. GO JUDDY!!!

[sportznut]

Yeah, I backed Judd too, but a couple of the guys I picked for most team votes aren't even going to go close!!!

Can the umpires actually see more than half a dozen players on the field???

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-09-20 22:27 ]</font>

[mug punta]

Nah mate. its been a joke for years. Like I said when I first started on this forum, how could Tredders win when W.Carey and G.Ablett the best two forwards of the modern era couldnt win it.
How are you getting the votes if its not on telly up there

[sportznut]

Listening to SEN's simulcast coverage on the computer and the AFL also has a live count on it's website.

[sportznut]

Geez, I reckon Judd could win 3 or 4 of these things. He's only 21 and it's obvious the way he plays is a real vote catcher. As for Ricciuto, he's done brilliantly in a side that didn't win a heap of games.

[mug punta]

He is a champion, no doubt, cant wait till he comes home to VICTORIA. Hopefully, the mighty Bombers can snare him

[racingnovice]

mug punta. you got no hope lol. He won't be leaving the eagles for along time yet. Judd done it easy in the end :smile:.

[mug punta]

It should pan ot perfectly RN. Bombers finish down near the bottom in 05, have a stack of money in the cap and load up and get Juddy. I can dream cant I.

[racingnovice]

yep you can dream :smile:. But unless you want to trade lloyd, fletcher and a draft pick i doubt west coast would even consider it lol. I just hope they sign him early in the season or it could end up another nick stevens.

[mug punta]

Thats what every VIC is praying for. I know, the system sucks
Essendon are owed one anyway, we lost Wanganeen back to Port for nothing

[sportznut]

Well, these were my bets this year.

Why the hell didn't I just back Judd??? Some of my other bets were totally hopeless. I can't believe I was swayed by the opinion of all those 'experts' who thought Tredrea, Hall and Ling would all be right up the top. As for betting on Hird when he missed several games through injury, what was I thinking???

To win:
C.Judd $20 @ $5.00 (WON $100)

Top 5:
C.Judd $40 @ $1.40 (WON $56)

Most team votes:
WCst - C.Judd $40 @ $1.22 (WON $48.80)
St.K - N.Riewoldt $40 @ $1.22 (WON $48.80)
P.Ad - W.Tredrea $40 @ $1.25 (LOST)
Frem - P.Hasleby $40 @ $1.30 (WON $52)
Melb - J.White $40 @ $1.30 (WON $52)
Syd - B.Hall $20 @ $1.50 (LOST)
Ess - J.Hird $20 @ $1.53 (LOST)
Geel - C.Ling $20 @ $1.60 (LOST)
Rich - M.Richardson $20 @ $2.10 (WON $42)
Bris - N.Lappin $10 @ $2.75 (LOST)

Total bets - Out $350, In $399.60

Mo, after doing so well with the most team votes the last two years, somehow I just knew I would fail with it this year. With the benefit of hindsight, it's easy to see now that there were some bad value bets amongst them, particularly Hall, Hird and Lappin. I was confident that Judd would go well, so I really should have simply put a much bigger bet on him instead. I suppose you had a BIG win?


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-09-21 07:00 ]</font>

[moeee]

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: moeee on 2004-09-21 00:19 ]</font>

[Northerly]

It's time the umpires were stripped of the job of doing the votes.
If Judd's season was twice as good as Tredrea's then I give up.

Anyone familiar with AFL Dream Team?
Judd only ranked 25th. I know not a true reflection but these guys ranked above him.

1st Lappin
2nd Riewoldt
3rd West
6th Tredrea
9th Haselby
10th White
16th Hall
17th Ricciuto
23rd Cornes

Anyway, I'm glad Tredrea didn't win as I follow Adelaide so I hate Port. Still think he was the best player this year.

[moeee]

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: moeee on 2004-09-21 00:19 ]</font>

[sportznut]

Damn good player that Judd is, I still find it hard to work out how he got 30 points in a team which just snuck into the finals. Anyway, as I said, he looks like he could win 3 or 4 Brownlows. His exciting style of play is obviously a great vote catcher.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-09-21 07:18 ]</font>

[sportznut]

On 2004-09-21 00:00, Northerly wrote:
It's time the umpires were stripped of the job of doing the votes.
If Judd's season was twice as good as Tredrea's then I give up.


I can understand him not winning, but he didn't even get close. :???:


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-09-21 07:11 ]</font>

[sportznut]

In hindsight there was great value in Ricciuto and West for the top 5. They both had great seasons but more importantly, there was really nobody else in their team to take many votes off them.

[mug punta]

Guys, As Mr.J is always telling us, you need to look for an edge when gambling.
To win the medal you need to play in the midfield. END OF STORY.You cant get a better leg up than that.
Next year we should just back all the best midfielders at the start of the year and then have a winning night come September.

[sportznut]

Totally right. I can't believe I paid attention to all the 'experts'. Some of my team bets look totally stupid now, but they all seemed to make sense when I put them on.

[mug punta]

The hird one was stiff. He got rorted in the rd3 clash against west coast.He didnt even get a vote when he was so clearly b.o.g.
The umpires didnt forgive him 4 his comments on the footy show that day!!

[sportznut]

Yeah, I couldn't believe that. He was really the ONLY reason they won that night.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-09-21 07:57 ]</font>

[sportznut]

Can anyone tell me how the votes are awarded for the AFL club best and fairest awards, because when I saw the winners from each team, I thought they were generally more realistic and deserving winners than the ones who got the most votes for each team at the Brownlow. For example, Tredrea instead of Cornes, Ling instead of Bartel and Hall instead of Kirk. Personally, it's a bit frustrating because if the results had been the same on Brownlow night, I would have won with 8 out of my 10 team bets, instead of only 5 out of 10. Damn umpires!!!


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-10-07 07:35 ]</font>

[moeee]

Can't help much with that Sportz,but I think points are awarded for the top 5 players.
Also when a team plays poorly,Zero Brownlow votes,but in team voting the best of a bad lot still get votes.
Question for MugPunta.If Hird gets the 3 votes for Round (kiss and cuddle) does he win the Essendon team voting?

[goodoil]

This related article may be of interest to some

http://www.crikey.com.au/columnists/2004/09/21-0002.html

[sportznut]

Actually, I'm not sure that he would have won even with 3 points from that game Mo.

McPhee also won the Essendon best and fairest, so I'm not complaining. It was my own damn fault for backing a player who missed several games through injury. The fact that Hird got ZERO votes for that round was totally ridiculous however.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-10-07 10:03 ]</font>

[mug punta]

On 2004-10-07 09:33, moeee wrote:
Can't help much with that Sportz,but I think points are awarded for the top 5 players.
Also when a team plays poorly,Zero Brownlow votes,but in team voting the best of a bad lot still get votes.
Question for MugPunta.If Hird gets the 3 votes for Round (kiss and cuddle) does he win the Essendon team voting?

Im pretty sure McPhee beat him by either 1 or 2 votes so if Hird had got the three he deserved against the Weagles he would have beat Macca. Cheers

[puntersteve]

On 2004-10-07 09:44, goodoil wrote:
This related article may be of interest to some

http://www.crikey.com.au/columnists/2004/09/21-0002.html


Interesting article goodoil, thanks.

[moeee]

Hey Mugsy,Surely Lloydy's 8 goals entitles him to the 3 votes.