Sportznut's Tips

[sportznut]

SEPTEMBER 18
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I'm going to experiment with a few different Trifecta methods. As well as the idea I was using previously with 3 horses for first and 6 horses for the placings, I'll be looking at two other methods. One is a 5 horse box and the other is using my saver selection as a roving banker with 5 others for the placings.

E.Fm R7
Value - 6 Wayjo
Saver - 5 Sir Mukafast

E.Fm R8
Value - 3 Chinbok
Saver - 1 Rue The Saint

Rose R4
Value - 2 Cariboo
Saver - 8 Pyranees Prince

Sand R4
Value - 9 Prior Knight
Saver - 4 Dea

Sand R7
Value - 17 Xaar Xaar
Saver - 14 Hveger

Morp R4
Value - 7 Shanikov
Saver - 1 Oxford Dollar

Morp R5
Value - 7 Shackled Rose
Saver - 1 Find The Cash

Morp R7
Value - 12 Unrocel Saint
Saver - 4 Squillani

Well, despite some very ordinary results from my win selections, I did quite well with those 2 new trifecta methods today. Both worked well.

Using pre-post prices:
Method 1 -$218.35
Method 2 +$146.45
Method 3 +$168.10

Using at-the-jump prices:
Method 1 -$150.20
Method 2 +$247.60
Method 3 +$247.60

The 2nd and 3rd methods also got a $1172 First4 today from 5 F4 races I tipped in.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-09-18 22:46 ]</font>

[sportznut]

SEPTEMBER 19
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It sure is a TOUGH day today, but here goes:

SCst R3
Value - 5 Grand Memories
Saver - 6 Moss Mania

Lism R4
Value - 1 Spinnerman
Saver - 7 Strategic Star

Lism R7
Value - 3 Tobiana
Saver - 9 Nicholinis

Caul R4
Value - 5 Bleveeka
Saver - 4 Lady Of The Desert

Caul R5
Value - 3 Regal Roller
Saver - 11 Alinghi

Caul R7
Value - 13 She's Archie
Saver - 11 Delzao

Caul R8
Value - 5 Harley Ma
Saver - 6 Strikeline

Echu R5
Value - 3 Deo Favente
Saver - 1 Sound Reward

Mild R7
Value - 4 Count The Bites
Saver - 1 Toxic Free Mallee

Dprt R8
Value - 4 Leannamaree
Saver - 1 Allusions

[sportznut]

Finding it very hard to decide which races to tip in. I liked about 20 races today but thought that was way too many, so I cut it down to ten. Left out quite a few good winners doing that. Very frustrating.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-09-19 17:35 ]</font>

[kiwi]

G'day Sportz,

I would like to see all your tips.

From my top 3 neural selections i intergrate your tips in quinellas and tris.
The results are ok if your top 2 and my top 2 coincide.At this time of the year i minimise my punting 75% till the tracks are consistant and all the firm track horses are fit, my strike rate decreases by about 25%.
Having all your tips will be a good guideline when it is time to re-enter the fray.

It is just a matter of time untill your great consistanct returns.

[sportznut]

Okay, thanks. Yeah, in future, I guess I'll post all my thoughts and you can feel free to use the tips as you wish. Yesterday in the 10 races I left out, I had 7 winners in my two selections including Loyal Lauren $9.80, Tirade $11.70, Lady Briony $13.90 and the trifecta and first 4 on Melb r6 which paid an absolute fortune!!! :roll:

[sportznut]

SEPTEMBER 20
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Cast R3
Value - 1 Blevic's Best
Saver - 10 Attendre

Cast R5*
Value - 1 End Song
Saver - 2 Fonteyn Star

Cast R7
Value - 12 The Wall
Saver - 8 Bold Concept

Cast R8
Value - 8 Irish Cat
Saver - 1 Boy's Play

Cast R9*
Value - 1 Bank Buster
Saver - 5 Poetic Point

Musw R4*
Value - 6 Hayaizo
Saver - 5 Foxy Phil

Musw R5
Value - 2 Khyber Pass
Saver - 13 Wool Spinner

Musw R7*
Value - 6 Obliviator
Saver - 3 Classy Planet

Musw R8*
Value - 2 Baci
Saver - 1 Grisabella

Wagg R2
Value - 9 Stralara
Saver - 3 Our Armidale

Wagg R6
Value - 2 Prince Paree
Saver - 1 Big Impression

Wagg R7*
Value - 2 Tom Mac
Saver - 7 Bella Arena

Multis
Cast R3 - 10,1,11,4,6,3
Cast R5 - 2,1,4,3,6,7
Cast R7 - 8,12,6,7,9,5
Cast R8 - 8,1,4,2,6,3
Cast R9 - 5,1,6,2,8,7
Musw R4 - 5,6,7,8,1,2
Musw R5 - 13,2,1,3,4,5
Musw R7 - 3,6,4,1,2,7
Musw R8 - 1,2,5,10,3,9
Wagg R2 - 3,9,10,7,1,2
Wagg R6 - 1,2,4,3,6,11
Wagg R7 - 7,2,1,9,3,8


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-09-20 17:03 ]</font>

[sportznut]

Another shocking day so far. Very depressing. Started well but downhill ever since.

[sportznut]

Kiwi,

I might have to provide 3 tips per race instead of just two from now on. My third selection won 4 of the races today at pretty good odds. It was very frustrating.

I'm actually thinking of maybe betting on 3 horses in some races when the value is there. I experimented with that idea a while back and it seemed to go pretty well.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-09-20 19:17 ]</font>

[sportznut]

SEPTEMBER 21
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Today I'm going to include my approximate top 4 ratings for each of the races. Probably way off the mark but let's see how they go:

Town R2
Value - 13 Tuscan Illusion ($5)
Saver - 8 Sir Banner ($3)
Next best - 10 Wood Dux ($7) & 14 Jonquils ($7)
Multis - 8,13,10,14,7,4

Town R6
Value - 3 Yumali ($4.50)
Saver - 4 Dorian ($3.50)
Next best - 1 Esdene's sequel ($7) & 2 Lemon Lime ($7)
Multis - 4,3,2,1,6,7

Town R7*
Value - 8 Brunt ($4.50)
Saver - 5 Stormy Blue ($3.50)
Next best - 3 Another Direction ($6) & 1 Sinowin ($8)
Multis - 5,8,3,1,7,10

Rose R3
Value - 12 Individual ($5)
Saver - 3 Roadhog ($3)
Next best - 1 Stromberg Carlson ($6) & 4 Fathers Day ($8)
Multis - 3,12,1,4,7,6

Rose R4
Value - 6 Evert ($4)
Saver - 3 Sectagonal ($3)
Next best - 8 Cashout ($6) & 5 Pleasure Ground ($8)
Multis - 3,6,5,8,4,7

Rose R6
Value - 3 My Chanticleer ($5)
Saver - 4 Michael Da Dragon ($3.50)
Next best - 7 Olympus ($6) & 5 Lord Of The Land ($8)
Multis - 4,3,7,5,10,11

Rose R7*
Value - 7 Northfield Drive ($5)
Saver - 5 Kiawah ($3)
Next best - 1 Navy Blue ($7) & 2 Grand Success ($7)
Multis - 5,7,1,2,4,3

Sale R2
Value - 14 Orbostienne ($5.50)
Saver - 6 Red Cavallo ($3.50)
Next best - 10 Fugazi ($7) & 11 King's Champ ($8)
Multis - 6,14,10,11,8,12

Sale R5*
Value - 12 Strategee Gee ($4.50)
Saver - 8 Octaves ($2.25)
Next best - 3 Bidgee Beauty ($8) & 11 Rulan Ruby ($8)
Multis - 8,12,3,11,14,15

Sale R6*
Value - 4 Danzietta ($5)
Saver - 12 Taking Sides ($3)
Next best - 2 Beyooshi ($6)& 13 Thredbo Lass ($8)
Multis - 12,4,2,13,14,15

Sale R7*
Value - 2 Champion Blitz ($5)
Saver - 3 Kendalay ($3)
Next best - 9 St Phonse ($6) & 1 Major Woody ($8)
Multis - 3,2,9,1,4,14

Sale R10*
Value - 2 Prince Rodolpho ($4.50)
Saver - 1 Drumbeater ($2.25)
Next best - 4 Siamun ($8) & 3 Rio Grando ($8)
Multis - 1,2,4,3,9,8


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-09-21 15:32 ]</font>