Can anyone make a profit in Melbourne in the Spring?

[Dirk Gently]

The spring carnival has only just begun and I've already sworn off Melbourne for the Spring!
I love to watch and follow the races but I'm buggered if I can pick em. My normal ratings just can't cope with so many high class horses coming back from spells.
Does anyone have an approach that works?

[topsy99]

its a funny question.
i qualify in the top 10 worst punters of all time so i wont be much help.
but.' its hard to argue that the form horses didnt run first and second in the underwood.
its hard to argue that form horses didnt win the last race (strikeline) its hard to argue that regal roller isnt a track specialist and won his 6th race over 1400 at caulfied and had won a couple in a row at group 2 level.
hollow bullet in my opinion had good form.
tirade ( even i backed it) had good form in being placed two in a row at group level..
shirvirgo had run second at his last start at listed level by .4 of a length.
confectioner won a listed race last start.

no i dont know how to answer your question
perhaps someone else can.
good luck

[zorro]

In my view the thing that makes winning during the carnival so difficult is the size of the fields. With 16 to 20 horses in most races the chances of wide runs, interference etc increases dramatically.
One of my main punting rules is not to bet in fields with more than 14 runners. This means not having many bets during the carnival but my records show that I have saved plenty of money in recent years.

[topsy99]

i appreciate the difficulty.
an argument could be put that by giving up altogether we could save heaps.
but not necessarily.
i know i am not a very good punter but i have always followed the line that by by following listed horses i always get a few winners.
the most recent performers in listed races statistically perform best (naturally).
i do this for safety as well.
an automatic method to narrow your selections quickly keeps the blinkers on.
good luck with the spring and enjoy it. i thought sunday was a great days racing not necessarily because i came out in front but the competitiveness was outstanding.
and what a horse regal roller is. i wonder how many times he has to win before we accept his credentials. i guess because didnt come up through the classics makes it harder for us to be convinced. i am at last.
keep the faith.

[Neil]

Everyone wins in the Spring. That's when the TAB controlled media is at its best - listen to the radio or watch TV and be told "There's fantastic value in the race, no mattter what you back." Be told "Fancy getting $10.00 about such good horses as these."

With so much value around, how can punters possibly lose???

We of course know who are the real winners in the Spring. Let's start with the VRC who run the Melbourne Cup Carnival, let's add some wealthy trainers, wealthy jockeys, wealthy owners, TABs and on it goes....

As for punters - well, you're meant to enjoy yourselves, have fun, and of course bet up, bet up and bet up.

[jaffa]

Spring Racing.

I fortunately or luckily have made a fair bit of money over the last 15 yrs on Sept to November melb racing, due to the fact that there are so many class horses around which gives better value.

Only have a token bet in both Caul / Melb cups. Easier races to pick.

1 -- Back horses who finished in the first 4 and were beaten less then 4 lengths and were in the first 3/4 all the way. They stay out of trouble and often do a regal roller and get away on the corner--Must be paying $5.

2 -- Back any beaten favourites who started 3/1 ($4) or less at its next 2 runs if paying $5 or more.

I have honestly backed some surprising price winners as they get beat 1 week and then some people write them off and up they pop.

Check your records, Dane Ripper got beat as a 3/1 fav and next start won Cox Plate at $40/1 and I roared the roof down at the Gold Coast.

Just 2 suggestions, not hard to follow and can give some good fun results.

[topsy99]

thats good advice.
set some parameters for getting some winners and every so often something will jump out of the ground screaming for you to put more money on it.
unfortunately only about once a fortnight there is that apparent good thing.

[puntersteve]

Melb and Syd Spring carnivals is the time of the year I love best.

Better class animals makes for more accurate and consistent form rating relativity.

Better prices on offer generally for the better animal compared to if they raced against inferior opposition.

[Mr ed]

I agree i find the spring my most lucrative aka (my least liable) time of year.

[umrum]

I agree spring is great. The form is so much easier to stack up as they usually come out of the same sort of races. i find the cups and the cox plate have been pretty good to me.

[Dirk Gently]

Well I'm glad that some of you are getting somewhere, I guess this time of year will suit some methods and not others. I agree that in general the higher class horses run truer to form but they also have that "champion" or never-say-die quality to some degree that can throw up some suprising (and enthralling) results. Unfortunatley it's a very hard quality to quantify.
I went to the Melbourne Cup a few years ago (gotta do it once) and thought that for the hell of it I'd have a bet on every race of the card. Undoubtably the worst days punting ever.....but that is a very uneven card and not indicative of the rest of the carnival.
Anyway, thanks for the input, I'll follow the spring racing tipping comp from the sidelines!

[crash]

Obviously Spring is the time for a few winning punters and many, many loosing ones.

The large fields and early Spring state of the tracks in Melb. are against most punters making the odds offered far worse than they look. Poor value all round but the excitement is always there.

I find the second half of the carnival far easier to stack up form wise than the first half. Things settle down a bit and the tracks improve.

Great time for the bookies as they would starve to death if it wasn't for the Spring carnival.

Nothing too special running around except the same old hacks and a weary, fat and old Northerly having a go at them [should have been 20/1 last start].