Whos a Professional Gambler?

[fry]

Just curious on how much money you bet and how often? and how do you decide on what to be on? thanks

[Mr J]

"Just curious on how much money you bet and how often?"

The amount I bet depends on how well I expect that sport/bet to do. Most of my bets are between 2-5% of my bankroll.

How often? Well I turnover my bankroll around 3 times per week. I am pretty aggressive though and make alot of bets.

"and how do you decide on what to be on"

Whatever I have an edge on. Some of this comes from my own handicapping, a good chunk comes from smartgambler and the rest comes from other people I know.

I bet on AFL, NRL, Super 12s, tennis, MLB, NFL, college football, college basketball, NBA, NHL and golf. I'll make 4000-5000 bets over the next 12 months.

All the picks from the first 3 I get from my own handicapping. Tennis, MLB and soon NBA I get from smartgambler. Most of the rest I get from people I know.

[Dr Pangloss]

Mr J

Hows the Tennis going since the new guy stepped in?

Who are you going with in pucks after last seasons disaster?

Did you do anything with the Soccer ratings?

Are you still Bhing?

Sorry for all the questions but at least its all over and done with in one hit.

[Mr J]

Haven't seen you around for a while.

"Hows the Tennis going since the new guy stepped in?"

130 units wagered,
19 units profit.

I missed a few wins during the US open because they were set style bets, so he's been doing pretty well. Prices are easy to get (you just need a mix of euro/US/aussie books). Does things a bit different to Tony, but the package is still just as good IMO.

"Who are you going with in pucks after last seasons disaster?"

Ah man nitro was bad. After tonys awesome run late last year pucks brings me back down. Might give pucks a miss since it looks like they're going on strike.

"Did you do anything with the Soccer ratings?"

Nope, decided to leave betting on soccer alone.

"Are you still Bhing?"

Not casinos, I've been hitting the sportsbook bonuses pretty hard lately. A mix of scalping and just rolling over with +EV bets.

I also subbed to the MLB package, results were great (+40u over around 800 plays).

[Dr Pangloss]

Geez, sounds like I missed the boat on Tennis and MLB (bigtime).

As you know I got stung badly with BenBurns pucks (and his recommended BetPanama farce) and consequently remained determined to be a lot more prudent as to where I stuck my toe into next.

Can understand why you left the Soccer alone - the market appears to me as efficient as is humanely possible.

Just commenced my second round of Bhing (Casinos) after all this time. Boy is it harder now - not for the uninitiated.

Good luck with everything James - always enjoy you learned insights as I know they come directly from the coal-face of experience.

[sportznut]

On 2004-09-21 13:54, Mr J wrote:
"Are you still Bhing?"

Not casinos, I've been hitting the sportsbook bonuses pretty hard lately. A mix of scalping and just rolling over with +EV bets.



I have NO IDEA what that's all about. You seem to be speaking an entirely different language half the time. :???:

[Mr J]

BetPanAm? Ouch. Hope you didn't have too much there (probally not after losing).

I can understand why some guys dropped out of the tennis. Just playing it safe since the new capper had a long breakeven stretch and a mostly unproofed record.

I trusted the tennis record was accurate, and the results of the tennis & mlb were more than enough to test them out. I need a 1 in 10k result for me to feel comfortable.

MLB you probally didn't miss as much as you think. Might have won 40 units, but you wouldn't want to use a bet size of more than 2% (unlike the tennis under Tony where alot of members bet 5% per unit). More than double though, still a great return.

"Just commenced my second round of Bhing (Casinos) after all this time. Boy is it harder now - not for the uninitiated."

Yeh it sure is. WR are pretty bad and alot of the good deals have disappeared. Definately nowhere near as profitable 12-18 months ago.

"as I know they come directly from the coal-face of experience."

And some of those experiences have cost me quite a lot :wink:


"You seem to be speaking an entirely different language half the time"

*Not casinos, I've been hitting the sportsbook bonuses pretty hard lately. A mix of scalping and just rolling over with +EV bets.*

Translation:
I've been depositing at a lot of sportsbooks lately to get their deposit bonuses. I've been completing the wagering requirements by arbitrage and with normal but profitable bets.

It's just sharp lingo. A sharp is an informed/intelligent punter (they're sharp :wink: )

[sportznut]

On 2004-09-21 17:16, Mr J wrote:
A sharp is an informed/intelligent punter (they're sharp :wink: )


I guess I must be a 'BLUNT' then.... an uninformed/ unintelligent punter! :sad:

[Mr J]

Sportz, someone who bets on home dogs is not someone I'd call blunt :wink:

Overall home dogs in AFL have hit 60% over the last 3 years for a POT of around 15%.

Overall home dogs in NRL 57.5% for a POT of 10%.

In super 12s I'm not sure about the numbers, but I'm pretty sure home dogs are a very good bet as well.

At the worst you're a sharp square (yep, square = a mug punter).

[Mr J]

Or maybe a square sharp? :wink:

[sportznut]

Yep, it's even working in the finals... 2 from 2 last week.

[sportznut]

By the way, there won't be any more system bets for the year (except perhaps in the Union and League internationals at the end of the year), so here's a rundown on how my system has actually gone in all 3 codes in 2004:

R.U - 16 wins from 17 bets. (94%)
R.L - 22 wins from 36 bets. (61%)
AFL - 22 wins from 32 bets. (69%)

All up, that makes a total of 60 wins from 85 bets. (71%)

Not bad. :smile:

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-09-22 08:50 ]</font>

[Mr J]

What no NFL?

There is a group of NFL home dogs that have hit 57.5% over the last 13 years :wink:

[sportznut]

Still looking into the NFL. Over the last two years, just as an interest, I've had small bets on all home dogs with at least 6.5 pts start. Guess what, 25 wins from 33 bets! But I'm especially looking closely at home dogs with a start of exactly 6.5 or 7.5 points. 23 wins from 28 bets!!! :smile:


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-09-22 16:17 ]</font>

[Floydyboy]

I could put the KYBOSH on those figures for ya Ill just put some of my hard earned on em ......anyway off to the soccer

[Mr J]

Sportz, are you counting these as wins when they fall on the number (you should count them as wins, as from +6.5 and +7 you buy onto the +7.5)?

"Guess what, 25 wins from 33 bets!"

Like I said with the AFL/NRL/S12 just don't expect them to keep hitting so far over 60%.

My own dog system hits 60% over around 50 plays a year, but I don't bet them. I've been betting just a couple of games each week based on someone elses data, but the edge these bets have is huge. Think propunter super specials huge.

I was going to test my system (as in the one I use for AFL/NRL/S12), haven't got around to it though.