What do you consider the main factor?

[racingnovice]

Hi all,

Just curious as to what people think is the main factor in selecting a horse. Eg. Form, Class, odds and so on.

[Happychap]

On 2004-09-22 09:53, racingnovice wrote:
Hi all,
Just curious as to what people think is the main factor in selecting a horse. Eg. Form, Class, odds and so on.



picking the one that's going to win :lol:



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Happychap on 2004-09-22 10:05 ]</font>

[racingnovice]

Happychap so true :smile:. Unfortunatly we cant back a horse after it wins :smile:.

[bwuce]

On 2004-09-22 10:02, racingnovice wrote:
Happychap so true :smile:. Unfortunatly we cant back a horse after it wins :smile:.


bugger!

[syllabus23]

Don't be obsessed with "value" favourites frequently win,and as they say.Little fish are sweet.

Please dont take these as tips,,, but,,,,

Race3 Sandown today

tab1 Chickadee scratched from Sandown 18th Sept and saved for this.

tab3 Kakama scratched from Sandown 18th Sept and saved for this.

tab7 Buk Buk Luc scratched from Sale yesterday and saved for this.

They cant all win,maybe none of them will.But,I will be watching the betting very carefully.

What I'm saying is,,keep an eye for detail..

Good Luck

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: syllabus23 on 2004-09-22 10:59 ]</font>

[kenchar]

Syllabus23,

Cannot agree more, sus it out look at the odds movements.

The nose (very hard in the Winter though when it's snotty) and odds beat form any day of the week.

One example I look for in Mid-Weeks is nags that have been racing (say) in NSW, Haven't had a start in a year and pop up in Qld, in a bush meeting.

It would shock a lot of people on this forum and believe me they ARE NOT FAVOURITES.

SNIFF 'EM OUT forget the form.

Cheers

[Bhagwan]

Try this, it has some good paying results.

1)Target the first 4 TAB Favs say 1-2 min. before jump.(These make up the majority of winners.)
2)Must have a Wt. Rating of 91+Pts.as shown on TABQ or certain raceing sites e.g.Wizard form guide.
3)Must of run at least 4th or better in any of it`s last 3 starts (treat X as a start)
4)Ignore any paying $3.10 or less.
5)Must have shortened in price as shown on .
TABQ or similar sites.

6)Try & target races where the whole field has had 2+ starts each.(These races tend to be a higher quality & you also have some form to work with .
You will also have a higher strike rate with these type of races where form accounts for something.
You also wont find yourself betting in every race especially mid week.

7) Ignore races with 16+ runners.

You may end up with 1-3 selections, bet 2 of them ,same amnt on each or try & break it down to 1 ,with your own mini handicapping process.

[bogo2]

What’s the most important factor in horse racing? Speed? Pace? Pedigree? Trainers? Nope. The most important factor in horse racing is luck.(....)





<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Moderator 3 on 2004-09-23 16:59 ]</font>

[Truckie]

It didn't take long for Kenchar's advice re starting after 12 months to prove it is possible. On 24/9 at Dubbo, King Rex paid $7.70 on unitab.Good one.

[the mug]

Hello Guys
Pretty new here but thought i would add by my bit.

Today purely based on "sniffing out" selections and no form study at all, i managed to find some great results..
All these selections were based on scratchings from throughout the week, or nominated many times previoulsy..winners were
Sandown..
Miss marion W6.20
Mango Daiquiri W19.20
Garidar W 28.80
Ranch 2nd 5.50
and also Kalinga County W5.40 at sunshine coast today..

As syllabus23 said they wont all win,and there were a few losers too, and today may have been one out of the blue. But a very profitable day nonetheless, and very little form study..Food for thought..

cheers all

[kenchar]

Hi the mug,

Not an unusual day, read some of my earlier posts in relation to local Knowledge in relation to midweek so called rubbish meetings ( the ones we are not supposed to bet on ).
I used to bet 7 days a week, now 6.
Guess what day I don't bet.
It's the day when all the QUALITY races are run, you know when all the GOOD nags and exposed form and databases come into play.
Give me the rubbish races anytime over the quality races, A $2.5 place in the bush is as good as a $2.5 place at Randwick on a Saturday. Another thing which will go against 90% of the forum, listen to the commentary preceding a bush meeting race on SKY, it's amazing what you can sus out by comments made.
LOOK, LISTEN, and SNIFF.
Learn to do this and you will succeed in this nearly impossible game.

Cheers

[kiwi]

Thanks for the advice on nominations the mug.Used it to good effect at Eagle Farm and Strathalbyn on the last races and picked up a $24 and $14 divvie.

Can i suggest in addition to your two rules that using this idea may reduce the number of bets per meeting.

The nomination(s) must be in a superior race to todays race.

Also eliminate from consideration any races Class 2 and below.

KIwi.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: kiwi on 2004-09-30 13:37 ]</font>

[the mug]

Good for you Kiwi..The wonder of working 9-5 means you miss out on most betting oppurtunities..
Yes youre right. You cannot back all the selections and their are many losers amongst the winners..I try to avoid favourites at short prices, especially if a couple of selections come up. Your filters sound good though but we dont want to much form study now..haha
thanks also for your words of wisdom kenchar.You have given me a completely different perspective on punting..
cheers all.

[syllabus23]

Went to Wyong races a couple of weeks ago.I always like Wyong,they make good chips with enough salt to double your blood pressure,lol no wife in tow so I doubled up on them.

What was interesting I ran into an old friend who works on the tote there.We had a cup of coffee and sat chatting to each other for a while.I asked her if she was getting plenty of work?

Answer,,,"Not a lot Bill" Question "Why"
Answer,, No "overs" these days!!!This is from a woman who has worked on racecourse totes for over twenty years.She said a few years ago there would have been at least a dozen private booths for professional punters,today there is only one.

The professionals that are left have moved offshore.Therein lies a lesson for all of us.Particularly those of us in NSW where this rapacious government grabs every last zac that they can get their hands on.

Don Scotts value revolution was brilliant in its day.That day has long gone.You can sit at your computer for hours doing ratings,and if you are doing them right your top four selections will be the top four horses in the betting.It's a waste of good time.

As several people in addition to myself have said earlier in this thread,,,"look elswhere for your value horses,and look elswhere for your value odds"!!!

There are still good $$$ to be found out there.Wasting valuable time with ratings isn't one of them..

Good luck,,Good Punting

[Mark]

Very good insight Syllabus23.

[captain charger]

Kenchar,for these bush meetings where would you find the "form" to see how long it is since they raced,cheers.

[Ron50]

Hi Syllabus23,

After 25 years at this frustating business I found your comments very interesting because I now find it extremely hard to find value.Mark has seen the opportunity and grasped it with both hands.Congratulations to Mark for his wisdom to step outside the Australian arena.

Cheers,
Ron.

[kenchar]

Hi Captain,

If I'm at the track from the racebook.

If at home I look at the formguide on QLD TAB and it will say no recent starts, I then look further on NSW and VIC TABS.

Cheers

[KennyVictor]

I think this has been the most interesting thread since I joined the Forum. Interesting, and somewhat depressing. I read the post by Syllabus23 at least a half a dozen times and sadly I could see a lot of truth in it. I say sadly because all my punting is done according to the selections my computer spits out.
I earn my living as a database programmer and have always maintained that with enough data, a fast enough computer and Don Scotts "Winning" at my elbow I should be able to get enough of an edge to beat even the TAB. What Syllabus says is true, more often than not my top selection is the TAB favorite and my ratings usually follow the final TAB divvys pretty closely. Every now and then though it picks a relative long shot. Mercedario at Belmont last Saturday for example was the highest priced success I've picked in the last several months, it paid 11-1. Also, the computer seems to pick up false favorites quite accurately.
The only place I bet at the moment is WA, simply because they are the only people I've found who are kind enough to put the last 8 years results on the net in a nice computer friendly, downloadable form (If anyone can point me to any other comparable sources of data I'd be very grateful). This (8 years) gives a computer enough data to form statistically reliable results.
I'm only a relatively small time punter but doing the unthinkable of having a level stakes bet placed hours before the jump in every race (although not every course, some I just can't crack) I come out about 8 - 10 percent ahead overall (with the assistance Maxidiv gives over the TAB) and have a strike rate of 29 - 30 percent winners.
I think you're right Syllabus, Don Scott would go mad nowadays flicking through his card index looking for a winner but I still say it's possible to pick horses purely by rating them and not lose your shirt.

[syllabus23]

G,day Victor,Sorry about my depressing contribution.I'm basically a hobby punter too.It's probably the reason that after over fifty years I still enjoy the racing scene and manage to keep my head above water.

I became a Don Scott devotee too,and with good reason.He showed a lot of us a new and realistic approach to punting.I would be the last person to knock his methods because I still very much admire his work.

Unfortunately when his methods became universal the value disappeared.Digging up those juicy hidden 8/1 shots stopped happening.Basically because everyone was finding them and they turned into 3/1 pops.

As we both agree,it's possible to put a lot of effort into ratings and discover that all you have achieved is to mirror the betting market.Once I realised that I was consistently doing just that, it became clear that my time could be better spent.

If you look at my post on the "Original Retirement Staking Plan" you will see that our results are remarkably similar.My strike rate is 29.4% and my average dividend is a fraction over 3/1.Basically I'm achieving that result by following the betting trends on the more fancied (high rating) horses and relying on a lot of personal experience to analyse the swings and drifts in the betting.

That really brings us back to the question of value,particularly in relation to horses in the 2/1 to 5/1 range.I dont intend to promote any betting organisations I will leave that to the people who are paid to do it.But when you see your that your selection has paid 2/1 on your State TAB and another outfit has paid 3/1 on the same horse it's pretty clear what the alternatives are.

I would dearly love to think that someone from the NSW government read the comments in these forums,because if they did they would realize that they are responsible for their own downfall.

Anyway mate, keep your percentages where they are and dont be discouraged.

If I can make a suggestion.Read the other posts in this thread and they will lead you to some of those longer priced winners which are impossible to find by using ratings.

Good Luck,,Good Punting

[Floydyboy]

Iwobbled up to the tote window on saturday to back one and it was scratched ...its running in the cranbourne cup tomorrow......... Lightning Command