Time ratings

[good 4th]

Hi all,
Im after a formula for working out times ran by the Dogs at different distances.

Example
525m win time 30.6
420m win time 23.6

So these two dogs are about to race in a new race, Which Dog is the best on time form?

Any ideas would be great,
GD4TH

[sportsmad]

As a guide I would divide the time run by the distance ran to get time per metre.
Then multiply the time per metre by the distance of the race to be run.

Eg. If the two dogs in question were now meeting over 520M
Dog A (30.6) would equate to expected time of 30.3 whilst dog B (23.6) would equate to expected time of 29.2

Only a guide though as there are still lots of ifs and buts.
eg. Dog stepping up in distance may not be able to maintain metre rating (registered over the shorter distance)
Dog A may have registered 30.6 but received a number of checks in running, whilst dog B's time may have been achieved trouble free etc

[woof43]

Hi, the easiest method is to compile say all the track records for all tracks over all distances then compute the the intersect an slope of distance an time using regression formula, then this will provide you with the rate of deceleration of track record holders as they progress up in distance, for tracks that have two turns as oppossed to one tracks you would use the centripedatal formula which makes allowance for the loss of speed negotiating the turns.
Cheers

[good 4th]

Thanks Sportsmad,
I also had the same ratings ,was looking for a different angle than what i have.
What about beaten lenghts.
Also is there an Average time vrs distance traveled to use as a basis.

GD4TH

[moeee]

Subtract the time run from the track record in both instances.

In your example Dog 1 runs 30.6 which could be .4 outside the record.
Dog 2 runs 23.6 which could be .9 outside the track record.
In this example Dog 1 is .5 seconds faster than Dog 2.

Or instead of using track records you could use average distance records.

Don't know if these methods will work,but at least something is better than nothing.

[woof43]

Hi, yes the major problem in comparing time beaten from the track record holder over different distances is that over the shorter distances the avg win time is closer to the track record as opposed to dogs racing over the longer distance the lesser class dogs will finish further behind the track record.
As the longer the distance the less track factors apply an more indiviual dog factors come into play.

[moeee]

OK - Easy to pleasy.
So what your thinking then says is this.

If doing the time record thing suggests Dog 1 is .5 seconds better than Dog 2,and Dog 1 ran over a longer distance than Dog 2,Then in fact Dog 1 is actually more than .5 seconds better than Dog 2.
Conversely,if Dog 1 ran over a shorter distance than Dog 2 it is in fact less than .5 seconds better than Dog 2.
No?

Do this.
You multiply the above .5 seconds by the distance Dog 1 ran over and then divide it by the distance Dog 2 ran over.

Still not guaranteed to be the definitive solution,but certainly allows for your concerns in a positive direction.And very simple to apply.
And I tell you what.There are a lot more important factors governing the result of a race.
Not easy to do but judging what will happen at the start is very crucial.

[good 4th]

Thanks guys for your input,i will use what i have and use a combo of stuff here.
What i'm trying to do is rate the field on time ratings using last race, time, beaten /win lenghts to find who will be the fastest in this race only. Other factors i will look at later.
Like the Tab wall sheets i'm trying to do the same.

GD4TH