would this work, ? Dutch and progressive staking ?

[dingoboy]

Hi everyone,

Whilst watching sky racing at home all day sat, i had a thought, im interested if anyone would think this would be viable or if it would be too difficult to manage.

Here we go !!
My normal stuff,

four of them finished top 5 or six last four starts,
four of them get a reasonable mention in the tipsters coloumn in paper ie tele,
Target price minimum for fav 3. second fav say 4 or 5, third fav 6 or 7, and old mate forth 6 plus.
Watch the "market movers"
THEN,
Dutch the best four runners, if a loss put this onto the next race,
I watched a lot of 6/4 favs going under and a lot of nags paying around the 6 to 9 mark comming up trumps.
I also noticed that the "sky top picks" would normally get up or pretty close, some of the 100 pointers were 15/1 and late mail pointed that way also.

What i am sugesting is, leave the races alone with favs under say 6/4, take on the others that match your crieria,....100-90 pointers and the form, mixed with the local knowledge of the late mail and sky racing info........dutch the four (could be three or five) and if one looses put this onto next race, i think that the first four favorites winning each race is about 70 % (???) therfore would it work ??
I would be very interested for thought and or critisism.
The way i look at it is, we all have access to the latest updated markets, internet TABs, papers, tipsters, Sky racing, personal knowledge, tips, staking plans,....etc etc, so i wonder how it would come out ?

Just a thought, dont be too harsh !!

[partypooper]

g'day dingoboy,

The answer to your question is definitly yes!! buuuuuT, of course after a few outs your stakes are up in Kerry's league. I do something very similar in a way, except I "dutch" 2 selections from 2 seperate races PRESUMING a 3-1 payout overall, i.e. you need 1 winner @ 7-1 or the equivolent of 2x3-1 winners.

if the payout is less the amount to recover is added onto the Target for the next pair and so on....... IF the return is greater than 3-1 (eg, say you hit 2 winners at 6-1, and 8-1 for instance) then the residue is put into a seperate bank and is used to reduce target when there is a run of 5 outs (i.e. 10 losers) I've been doing pretty well with this, but of course it all comes down to the method of selections in the first place. In my case I am using ratings which have consistently shown break even - about 10% POT.




<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: partypooper on 2004-09-29 16:33 ]</font>

[dingoboy]

Hi Partypooper,

Thanks for your reply,
I thought it would work but what you sujest is a smarter way.
Whith the dutching of the two differant races i quess this is either thingking outside the circle or more likely experience at the punt to which i need to obtain.
With respect to the reserve bank, when do you transfer from this, is it when you get a run of outs and your betting bank cant take another bet or is it when it reduces by ?%.
The reason i ask this is i have been looking at a staking plan which uses two banks and a percentage of either 2, 3, 4 or 5% of the bank to wager with(this is the strike rate that one achieves over time),...never more,...never less, this seems to be a slow way of increasing the bank but i guess safer.
The reserve bank is added to the betting bank when the betting bank reduces to 1/2 of start amount due to run of outs, interesting i think but probabally not new to you folk.
I might have a "paper run" at your idea with the two seperate races for a while and see how it goes, as for my selection methods do you think this is sufficent info to make a reasonable selection, ie using market movers, form guide, late mail etc

Thanks
Dingo

[partypooper]

dingoboy, with regards to experience at the punt, I can tell you I have EXTENSIVE experience of "gut" type betting, some spectacular wins b4 the inevitable "bad runs".
But have started to get it together in the last couple of years, and now my activities are much more controlled.

To answer your questions: I commit the utmost SIN with this method i.e. I target bet, (cringe cringe) eg.
say the target is $30 from each bet...so I have 1 selection in 2 different races grouped together and back em as if they are one bet @7-1 , which will give me 3-1 for my money if one wins at 7-1.

So I bet $5 on each selection
say they both lose so now my target is $60 + the $10 that I lost=$70

My next bet will be $12 on each
Say one won at 3-1, so I won $36, so my target now is $34 (shortfall) + $30 =$64

So my next bet is $11 on each. Say one won at 10-1, so I win $99, so I have cleared my Target of $64 plus $35, so the $35 goes into the reserve bank and I start again with a target of $30,..... lets say there is a run of 5 outs so in fact I have backed 10 losers, I then reduce the target by whatever is in the reserve bank and carry on, in this case however I would have a maximum amount that I am prepared to lose in any one bad run, on this scenario it would be $500.

So as you can see it is NOT dutching at all, just grouping of selections to try and avoid long runs of outs.

As far as selection methods are concerned, yes it is a case of whatever works for you, but I would follow on paper only for a while and insist on a minimum of a break even situation b4 trying a staking plan especially anything as "risky" as target betting.

Good luck!!
PS The reason I like this method is that you can back race to race, day to day or even week to week, put your bets on early b4 work and check em out after etc.





<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: partypooper on 2004-10-01 17:29 ]</font>