Group1 VICTORIA DERBY - 2500M (30 Oct)

[Paddy]

No Horse Trainer Weight

1 ABU SIMBEL Gerald Ryan 55.5
2 ACCUMULATE (NZ) Bart Cummings 55.5
3 AL MAHER Gai Waterhouse 55.5
4 ARTHUR PENDRAGON (NZ) Lee Freedman 55.5
5 ASSAFA John Sadler 55.5
6 BARELY A MOMENT Tony McEvoy 55.5
7 BREAK THE BARRIER Graeme Rogerson 55.5
8 BULLMIX David Noonan 55.5
9 CALORIFIC Michael Moroney 55.5
10 CAMBRIC John Hawkes 55.5
11 CAPTIOUS (NZ) Mick Price 55.5
12 CASHOUT Anthony Cummings 55.5
13 CEDAR MANOR (NZ) Graeme Rogerson 55.5
14 CHUT Lee Freedman 55.5
15 CLAVILLO (NZ) Bart Cummings 55.5
16 COUNT RICARDO Stephen Theodore 55.5
17 DANAURUM Leon Corstens 55.5
18 DOVER HEIGHTS Peter G Moody 55.5
19 FAR DRAGON Greg Mance 55.5
20 FASTEST STAR Terry Kelly 55.5
21 FASTNET ROCK Paul Perry 55.5
22 FEDEX John Ledger 55.5
23 FUGAZI Michael Ryan 55.5
24 HEAVENLY PUN Heath Conners 55.5
25 HIGH CEE (NZ) Bart Cummings 55.5
26 ILBACH Shane Nichols 55.5
27 INDICATES Tony McEvoy 55.5
28 KALININGRAD Leon Corstens 55.5
29 KID GEORGE John O'Shea 55.5
30 KING DURHAM Mick Price 55.5
31 LAGO'S PEAK Pat Carey 55.5
32 LIGHT SHINE Greg Eurell 55.5
33 LIONS GATE Tony McEvoy 55.5
34 MAXIMISATION Peter White 55.5
35 MONTERRICO Gai Waterhouse 55.5
36 MR MARTINI Leon Corstens 55.5
37 MR SPLINTERS Tony Vasil 55.5
38 NEW RULES Terry O'Sullivan 55.5
39 OCTRIVIA Leon Corstens 55.5
40 PLASTERED Lindsey Smith 55.5
41 PUBLIC OPINION Gillian Heinrich 55.5
42 RAILINGS John Hawkes 55.5
43 RANSOM TIME Keith Dryden 55.5
44 SATINSPIN (NZ) Robbie Laing 55.5
45 SAVABEEL Graeme Rogerson 55.5
46 SECTAGONAL John Hawkes 55.5
47 SINGULAR Graeme Rogerson 55.5
48 SOI COWBOY Mick Price 55.5
49 ST PIRIAN John O'Shea 55.5
50 STELLA GRANDE Lee Freedman 55.5
51 STRINGENT Graeme Rogerson 55.5
52 SWICK (NZ) Bart Cummings 55.5
53 TACKMAN (NZ) Bevan Laming 55.5
54 TIPPITAKA Tony McEvoy 55.5
55 TIRADE Mathew Ellerton 55.5
56 TOUR OF DUTY Leon Corstens 55.5
57 ULYSSES Tony McEvoy 55.5
58 UNDER COMMAND Bill Mitchell 55.5
59 WENCESLAS SQUARE Jack Denham 55.5
60 WESTERN BEAU Marc Conners 55.5
61 WRITTEN HABIT Robert Smerdon 55.5
62 YOSSARIAN Roslyn Day 55.5
63 ZANKEL (NZ) Brian Mayfield-Smith 55.5
64 ZIPPING Graeme Rogerson 55.5
65 DIZELLE John Hawkes 53

[Paddy]

Current EW fixed odds:

CHUT $5.00
FASTNET ROCK $5.00
AL MAHER $7.00
SAVABEEL $10.00
ZANKEL $11.00
BARELY A MOMENT $12.00
SWICK $12.00
CEDAR MANOR $14.00
MR MARTINI $14.00
TIRADE $14.00
SINGULAR $17.00
ABU SIMBEL $21.00
PLASTERED $21.00
DANAURUM $26.00
ZIPPING $26.00
LIONS GATE $31.00
STELLA GRANDE $31.00
TIPPITAKA $31.00
CAPTIOUS $41.00
HEAVENLY PUN $41.00
STRINGENT $41.00
UNDER COMMAND $41.00
WENCESLAS SQUARE $41.00
ACCUMULATE $51.00
ASSAFA $51.00
COUNT RICARDO $51.00
KALININGRAD $51.00
KID GEORGE $51.00
PUBLIC OPINION $51.00
CAMBRIC $61.00
ST PIRIAN $61.00
ULYSSES $61.00
WESTERN BEAU $61.00
DIZELLE $61.00
ARTHUR PENDRAGON $71.00
KING DURHAM $71.00
LIGHT SHINE $71.00
MONTERRICO $71.00
BULLMIX $81.00
CALORIFIC $81.00
MR SPLINTERS $81.00
BREAK THE BARRIER $101.00
HIGH CEE $101.00
TACKMAN $101.00
DOVER HEIGHTS $126.00
INDICATES $126.00
RAILINGS $126.00
WRITTEN HABIT $126.00
CLAVILLO $151.00
NEW RULES $151.00
OCTRIVIA $151.00
RANSOM TIME $151.00
SECTAGONAL $151.00
CASHOUT $201.00
FAR DRAGON $201.00
FASTEST STAR $201.00
FEDEX $201.00
FUGAZI $201.00
ILBACH $201.00
LAGOS PEAK $201.00
MAXIMISATION $201.00
SATINSPIN $201.00
SOI COWBOY $201.00
TOUR OF DUTY $201.00
YOSSARIAN $201.00

[Paddy]

Current EW fixed odds market - 50/1 & under

CHUT $5.50
SAVABEEL $6.50
AL MAHER $7.50
CEDAR MANOR $7.50
TIRADE $11.00
ZANKEL $11.00
BARELY A MOMENT $12.00
COUNT RICARDO $12.00
MR MARTINI $12.00
SWICK $12.00
FASTNET ROCK $15.00
PLASTERED $21.00
SINGULAR $21.00
DANAURUM $26.00
LIONS GATE $26.00
ZIPPING $26.00
ABU SIMBEL $31.00
HEAVENLY PUN $31.00
STELLA GRANDE $31.00
ULYSSES $31.00
WENCESLAS SQUARE $31.00
RAILINGS $41.00
UNDER COMMAND $41.00
ACCUMULATE $51.00
STRINGENT $51.00
TIPPITAKA $51.00

[Paddy]

Market movement – current top 10

CHUT $5.50 WAS $5.00
SAVABEEL $6.50 WAS $10.00
AL MAHER $7.50 WAS $7.00
CEDAR MANOR $7.50 WAS $14.00
TIRADE $11.00 WAS $14.00
ZANKEL $11.00 WAS $11.00
BARELY A MOMENT $12.00 WAS $12.00
COUNT RICARDO $12.00 WAS $51.00
MR MARTINI $12.00 WAS $14.00
SWICK $12.00 WAS $12.00

[Paddy]

Current EW fixed odds market - 50/1 & under:

CHUT $5.50
SAVABEEL $6.50
AL MAHER $7.50
BARELY A MOMENT $7.50
CEDAR MANOR $7.50
COUNT RICARDO $9.00
PLASTERED $9.00
LIONS GATE $13.00
ZANKEL $15.00
ACCUMULATE $17.00
MR MARTINI $17.00
SWICK $17.00
UNDER COMMAND $17.00
TIRADE $21.00
KING DURHAM $26.00
SINGULAR $26.00
FASTNET ROCK $31.00
HEAVENLY PUN $31.00
ULYSSES $31.00
ZIPPING $31.00
ABU SIMBEL $41.00
DANAURUM $41.00
RAILINGS $41.00
STELLA GRANDE $41.00
WENCESLAS SQUARE $41.00

[Paddy]

Market movement – current top 10:

HORSE NOW WAS

CHUT $5.50 $5.50
SAVABEEL $6.50 $6.50
AL MAHER $7.50 $7.50
BARELY A MOMENT $7.50 $12.00
CEDAR MANOR $7.50 $7.50
COUNT RICARDO $9.00 $12.00
PLASTERED $9.00 $21.00
LIONS GATE $13.00 $26.00
ZANKEL $15.00 $11.00
ACCUMULATE $17.00 $51.00



_________________
May the luck of the Irish be with you!



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Paddy on 2004-10-10 20:07 ]</font>

[Paddy]

Current EW fixed odds market - 50/1 & under:

CHUT $5.50
SAVABEEL $6.50
BARELY A MOMENT $7.50
CEDAR MANOR $7.50
PLASTERED $7.50
COUNT RICARDO $9.00
AL MAHER $13.00
LIONS GATE $13.00
ZANKEL $13.00
KING DURHAM $15.00
MR MARTINI $17.00
SWICK $17.00
ACCUMULATE $21.00
TIRADE $21.00
UNDER COMMAND $21.00
FASTNET ROCK $31.00
HEAVENLY PUN $31.00
SINGULAR $31.00
STELLA GRANDE $31.00
RAILINGS $41.00
ZIPPING $41.00
ABU SIMBEL $51.00
CALORIFIC $51.00
DANAURUM $51.00
OCTRIVIA $51.00
ULYSSES $51.00

[Paddy]

Market movement – current top 10:

HORSE NOW WAS

CHUT $5.50 $5.50
SAVABEEL $6.50 $6.50
BARELY A MOMENT $7.50 $7.50
CEDAR MANOR $7.50 $7.50
PLASTERED $7.50 $9.00
COUNT RICARDO $9.00 $9.00
AL MAHER $13.00 $7.50
LIONS GATE $13.00 $13.00
ZANKEL $13.00 $15.00
KING DURHAM $15.00 $26.00

[Paddy]

No Horse Trainer Weight

1 ACCUMULATE (NZ) Bart Cummings 55.5
2 BARELY A MOMENT Tony McEvoy 55.5
3 BREAK THE BARRIER Graeme Rogerson 55.5
4 BULLMIX David Noonan 55.5
5 CALORIFIC Michael Moroney 55.5
6 CEDAR MANOR (NZ) Graeme Rogerson 55.5
7 CHUT Lee Freedman 55.5
8 COUNT RICARDO Stephen Theodore 55.5
9 DANAURUM Leon Corstens 55.5
10 HEAVENLY PUN Heath Conners 55.5
11 KING DURHAM Mick Price 55.5
12 LIGHT SHINE Greg Eurell 55.5
13 LIONS GATE Tony McEvoy 55.5
14 MR MARTINI Leon Corstens 55.5
15 OCTRIVIA Leon Corstens 55.5
16 PLASTERED Lindsey Smith 55.5
17 PUBLIC OPINION Gillian Heinrich 55.5
18 SAVABEEL Graeme Rogerson 55.5
19 SOI COWBOY Mick Price 55.5
20 TACKMAN (NZ) Bevan Laming 55.5
21 ZANKEL (NZ) Brian Mayfield-Smith 55.5

[Paddy]

Current fixed odds EW market:

SAVABEEL $5.00
LIONS GATE $5.50
PLASTERED $5.50
CHUT $6.50
CEDAR MANOR $8.00
BARELY A MOMENT $10.00
COUNT RICARDO $10.00
ZANKEL $13.00
SOI COWBOY $17.00
KING DURHAM $21.00
MR MARTINI $21.00
ACCUMULATE $35.00
HEAVENLY PUN $51.00
DANAURUM $61.00
BREAK THE BARRIER $71.00
CALORIFIC $81.00
OCTRIVIA $81.00
BULLMIX $151.00
PUBLIC OPINION $151.00
TACKMAN $151.00
LIGHT SHINE $201.00

[Raw Instinct]

At the moment I am looking at Danaurum E/W think he will handle the jump up in distance without a problem and unless you want to listen to every word that comes out of Rogersons mouth this is the most wide open derby I have seen anything could win it.

[Paddy]

Current EW fixed odds:

SAVABEEL $2.50
PLASTERED $3.50
CEDAR MANOR $8.00
LIONS GATE $8.00
MR MARTINI $8.00
COUNT RICARDO $12.00
CHUT $16.00
KING DURHAM $21.00
SOI COWBOY $26.00
ZANKEL $26.00
ACCUMULATE $35.00
BARELY A MOMENT $35.00
HEAVENLY PUN $61.00
OCTRIVIA $101.00
DANAURUM $151.00
PUBLIC OPINION $151.00
BREAK THE BARRIER $201.00
BULLMIX $201.00
CALORIFIC $201.00
LIGHT SHINE $201.00
TACKMAN $201.00

[Paddy]

Latest market movement:

Horse Now Was
SAVABEEL $2.50 $5.00
PLASTERED $3.50 $5.50
CEDAR MANOR $8.00 $8.00
LIONS GATE $8.00 $5.50
MR MARTINI $8.00 $21.00
COUNT RICARDO $12.00 $10.00
CHUT $16.00 $6.50
KING DURHAM $21.00 $21.00
SOI COWBOY $26.00 $17.00
ZANKEL $26.00 $13.00
ACCUMULATE $35.00 $35.00
BARELY A MOMENT $35.00 $10.00
HEAVENLY PUN $61.00 $51.00
OCTRIVIA $101.00 $81.00
DANAURUM $151.00 $61.00
PUBLIC OPINION $151.00 $151.00
BREAK THE BARRIER $201.00 $71.00
BULLMIX $201.00 $151.00
CALORIFIC $201.00 $81.00
LIGHT SHINE $201.00 $201.00
TACKMAN $201.00 $151.00

[Paddy]

Current EW fixed odds:


SAVABEEL $2.50
PLASTERED $3.50
CEDAR MANOR $7.00
LIONS GATE $8.00
MR MARTINI $8.00
COUNT RICARDO $11.00
CHUT $16.00
KING DURHAM $21.00
SOI COWBOY $26.00
ACCUMULATE $41.00
BARELY A MOMENT $41.00
HEAVENLY PUN $41.00
OCTRIVIA $101.00
DANAURUM $151.00
PUBLIC OPINION $151.00
BREAK THE BARRIER $201.00
BULLMIX $201.00
CALORIFIC $201.00
LIGHT SHINE $201.00
TACKMAN $201.00

[Paddy]

Latest market movement:

Horse Now Was
SAVABEEL $2.50 $2.50
PLASTERED $3.50 $3.50
CEDAR MANOR $7.00 $8.00
LIONS GATE $8.00 $8.00
MR MARTINI $8.00 $8.00
COUNT RICARDO $11.00 $12.00
CHUT $16.00 $16.00
KING DURHAM $21.00 $21.00
SOI COWBOY $26.00 $26.00
ACCUMULATE $41.00 $35.00
BARELY A MOMENT $41.00 $35.00
HEAVENLY PUN $41.00 $61.00
OCTRIVIA $101.00 $101.00
DANAURUM $151.00 $151.00
PUBLIC OPINION $151.00 $151.00
BREAK THE BARRIER $201.00 $201.00
BULLMIX $201.00 $201.00
CALORIFIC $201.00 $201.00
LIGHT SHINE $201.00 $201.00
TACKMAN $201.00 $201.00
ZANKEL Not listed $26.00

[umrum]

plastered looks the goods

[purpleheart68]

IMO Savabeel does NOT have this race at his mercy.If you care to listen to the G.Rogerson hype,this horse will win this race in a canter,and also the Melbourne Cup as well!What a load of crap!Don't fall for it!A 3YO has not won the MC since Skipton in 1941!And is it worth $20 milion?Not in my books.Must be a lot of rich dudes with more money than sense out there.Sure,it won the Spring Champion and the Cox Plate,but what had it done before that?Won 2 low class races.It is no doubt a very talented racehorse,but to step up from the 2040 of the Cox at WFA,which gave it a huge advantage over the older horses,to 2500 of the Derby against it's own age at level weights removes that advantage and IMO brings it back to the field and makes it extremely vulnerable.IMO the stablemate is the one to beat,Cedar Manor,and is better value.One D.Oliver won on it the other day and on dismounting declared"this horse will win the Derby."I just hope he rides it!!It is the same scenario as Elvstroem coming back in distance from a hcp to WFA,and as I declared before the Cox,he would not run a place.I'm not saying Savabeel can't win,or won't run a place,I just don't think it will win.A place maybe.

[Paddy]

No. Horse Trainer Jockey Barrier Weight

1 SAVABEEL Graeme Rogerson C Munce 5 55.5
2 PLASTERED Lindsey Smith P J Harvey 6 55.5
3 CEDAR MANOR (NZ) Graeme Rogerson D Oliver 7 55.5
4 MR MARTINI Leon Corstens S Baster 10 55.5
5 COUNT RICARDO Stephen Theodore Matthew Allen 2 55.5
6 LIONS GATE Tony McEvoy D Nikolic 4 55.5
7 HEAVENLY PUN Heath Conners G Childs 9 55.5
8 KING DURHAM Mick Price C Brown 8 55.5
9 BULLMIX David Noonan D Beasley 3 55.5
10 SOI COWBOY Mick Price R McLeod 1 55.5
11 ACCUMULATE (NZ) Bart Cummings D Beadman 11 55.5

[Paddy]

Current EW fixed odds:

SAVABEEL $2.60
PLASTERED $3.40
CEDAR MANOR $4.80
MR MARTINI $10.00
COUNT RICARDO $12.00
LIONS GATE $12.00
HEAVENLY PUN $31.00
KING DURHAM $31.00
SOI COWBOY $41.00
ACCUMULATE $81.00
BULLMIX $201.00

[wasgoner]

#3 CEDAR MANOR
#1 SAVABEEL
#2 PLASTERED
#5 COUNT RICARDO

[moeee]

I watched the winning effort of Plastered last week,and think that $3.40 is very good value.Perhaps $2.40 is the correct price maybe less.
Get the feeling that the others won't run out the distance as well as Plastered.

[Ozgooner]

#2 PLASTERED
#3 CEDAR MANOR
#1 SAVABEEL
#5 COUNT RICARDO

[Ozgunner]

#2 PLASTERED
#3 CEDAR MANOR
#1 SAVABEEL
#4 MR MARTINI

[Paddy]

Current EW fixed odds:

SAVABEEL $2.60
PLASTERED $3.40
CEDAR MANOR $4.80
LIONS GATE $11.00
MR MARTINI $11.00
COUNT RICARDO $13.00
HEAVENLY PUN $31.00
KING DURHAM $31.00
SOI COWBOY $41.00
ACCUMULATE $81.00
BULLMIX $201.00

[Paddy]

Latest market movement:

Horse Now Was
SAVABEEL $2.60 $2.60
PLASTERED $3.40 $3.40
CEDAR MANOR $4.80 $4.80
LIONS GATE $11.00 $12.00
MR MARTINI $11.00 $10.00
COUNT RICARDO $13.00 $12.00
HEAVENLY PUN $31.00 $31.00
KING DURHAM $31.00 $31.00
SOI COWBOY $41.00 $41.00
ACCUMULATE $81.00 $81.00
BULLMIX $201.00 $201.00

[FremantleDoctor]

Plastered

[feather]

plastered
cedar manor

[Seeker11]

CEDAR LODGE
SAVABEEL
MR MARTINI
PLASTERED

[rabbitz]

Cedar manor
Lions Gate
Plastered
Accumulate
Cheers :cool:

[maverick1993]

Cedar Manor
Lions Gate
Plasterd
Savabeel

[armchairjock]

SAVABEEL
CEDAR MANOR
PLASTERED
LIONS GATE

[kadafi]

#7 Heavenly Pun
#2 Plastered
#1 Savabeel
#4 Mr Martini

[reinz]

Savabeel
Plastered
Lions Gate
Cedar Manor

[rabbitz]

PLASTERED is $2.20 on UNITAB with $12168 in the win pool
CRAAAAZZZZY!!!

[Paddy]

Current fixed odds market:

No. Selection Win Place
001 Savabeel $2.50 $1.25
002 Plastered $3.50 $1.50
003 Cedar Manor $4.00 $1.50
004 Mr Martini $13.00 $3.25
006 Lions Gate $13.00 $3.25
005 Count Ricardo $15.00 $3.75
008 King Durham $34.00 $6.50
010 Soi Cowboy $34.00 $7.50
007 Heavenly Pun $51.00 $11.00
011 Accumulate $51.00 $11.00
009 Bullmix Scratched Scratched

[goldmember]

Savabeel
Count Ricardo
Plastered
Mr Martini

[Raw Instinct]

Cedar Manor
Plastered
Savabeel
Soi Cowboy

[headsNtails]

2 PLASTERED
1 SAVABEEL
3 CEDAR MANOR
8 KING DURHAM

[zorro]

1) Cedar Manor
2) Savabeel
=3)Plastered / Mr Martini

[Paddy]

Track dead, scratched 9 - Bullmix

[Paddy]

Final fixed odds market:

No. Selection Win Place
001 Savabeel $3.00 $1.30
002 Plastered $3.25 $1.50
003 Cedar Manor $5.00 $1.60
006 Lions Gate $9.00 $3.00
004 Mr Martini $13.00 $3.25
005 Count Ricardo $17.00 $3.75
010 Soi Cowboy $34.00 $7.50
008 King Durham $41.00 $6.50
011 Accumulate $51.00 $11.00
007 Heavenly Pun $67.00 $11.00
009 Bullmix Scratched Scratched

[Oaksnaf]

PLASTERED
CEDAR MANOR
MR MARTINI

[sportz&all]

Count Ricardo / King Durham EW

[Oaksnaf]

WHAT A RACE.

GO GO PLASTERED

[Paddy]

06 AAMI VICTORIA 3YO
DERBY
2500 Metres
3:00pm
1ST LEG EXTRA DOUBLE
2ND LEG QUADRELLA

WIN/PLACE
2 2.90 1.40
1...............1.50
5...............3.10

QUINELLA (1-2) 3.00
EXACTA (2-1) 6.50
TRIFECTA
(2-1-5) 68.20
SPINNER (Mixed) 1.90
FIRST 4
(2-1-5-10) 917.00

(2) PLASTERED (P.HARVEY)
(1) SAVABEEL (C.MUNCE)
(5) COUNT RICARDO (MATTHEW ALLEN)

SCR - 9,11(L)
Quadrella Sub = 2

[Paddy]

PLASTERED selected by umrum, wasgoner, moeee, Ozgooner, Ozgunner, FremantleDoctor, feather, Seeker11, rabbitz, maverick1993, armchairjock, kadafi, reinz, goldmember, Raw Instinct, headsNtails, zorro & Oaksnaf

SAVABEEL selected by wasgoner, Ozgooner, Ozgunner, Seeker11, maverick1993, armchairjock, kadafi, reinz, goldmember, Raw Instinct, headsNtails & zorro

COUNT RICARDO selected by wasgoner, Ozgooner & goldmember

SOI COWBOY selected by Raw Instinct

[Paddy]

Thread covered all multiples including the first4.


Those who liked Plastered could have got 20/1 early in betting. Be surprised if some of our forum folk in the West didn’t get on :wink:

[moeee]

Trouble with that comment Paddy,is that many who fancied Plastered this week possibly never heard of Plastered when he was 20 to 1.
I know I hadn't.
Any one know of a website that has plans of building a time machine.