Football value

[knowledge]

I am new to these forums and I will provide my football knowledge and predictions on European leagues.

Firstly, English Premier League.

SOUTHAMPTON – MANCHESTER CITY
6 of these last 7 fixtures ended in Manchester City victories. Make this 7 out of 8.

MANCHESTER CITY - $2.85
MANCHESTER CITY 2-1 - $8.50

BLACKBURN vs. ASTON VILLA
I predict this to be a draw because neither team looks like winning. 1-1 scoreline looks most likely.

DRAW - $3.20

EVERTON vs. TOTTENHAM
Again, I predict a draw. A low scoring one at that, these are two low scoring teams both with good defensive records.

DRAW - $3.20
UNDER 2.5 GOALS - $1.72
DRAW-DRAW HT/FT - $5.00
DRAW 0-0 = $7.50

NORWICH – PORTSMOUTH
Portsmouth are pathetic away from home and Norwich aren't so bad. It is important for them to get 3 points from this if they want to avoid relegation this season, this is a match they must win.

NORWICH - $2.25

CHELSEA - LIVERPOOL
Chelsea are getting stronger each match and should be confident after a strong home win against Porto. Liverpool are returning from a poor display against Panathanaikos. Chelsea should win this, typically 1-0.

CHELSEA - $1.70
CHELSEA 1-0 - $5.00
UNDER 2.5 GOALS - $1.75

SUNDAY TREBLE
NEWCASTLE-MANUTD-CHELSEA - $4.75
DRAW-MANUTD-CHELSEA - $5.75

Italian SERIE A

CAGLIARI - BRESCIA
Two average teams, Cagliari have been impressive since being promoted and Brescia looks to be finally refinding their form. I cn't separate these two.

DRAW - $3.00

MESSINA - SIENA
Messina have been very impressive and if they can beat AC Milan away from home and AS Roma at home, there's no reason they can't beat an insecure Siena outfit.

MESSINA - $1.80

PALERMO - BOLOGNA
Messina aren't the only impressive Sicilian team to be promoted, I expect them to beat Bologna.

PALERMO - $1.80

UDINESE - JUVENTUS
All Juventus has to do is score and they've practically won. Their defense is excellent and I can't see them conceding. I can see them scoring though, the likes of Trezeguet, Ibrahimovic and Nedved will prove too much for Udinese's shaky defense.

JUVENTUS - $1.80

PARMA - FIORENTINA
Parma were very impressive against Inter and did well to manage a point. Fiorentina on the other hand have been quite disappointing in regard to pre-season expectations. Expect Parma to record their first 3 points here.

PARMA - $2.00

Spanish LA LIGA
REAL MADRID - DEPORTIVO LA CORUNA
Both teams have been disappointing but losing at home 5-1 to Valencia is not a good result to get before visiting Madrid. Real should take advantage of a dismal looking Deportivo.

REAL MADRID - $1.53

Thank you.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: knowledge on 2004-10-03 14:53 ]</font>

[moeee]

In Australia we call it Soccer.

[knowledge]

SOUTHAMPTON – MANCHESTER CITY
MANCHESTER CITY - $2.85 = LOST (DRAW)
MANCHESTER CITY 2-1 - $8.50 = LOST (0-0)

BLACKBURN vs. ASTON VILLA
DRAW - $3.20 = WON (2-2)

EVERTON vs. TOTTENHAM
DRAW - $3.20 = LOST (TOTTENHAM)
UNDER 2.5 GOALS - $1.72 = WON
DRAW-DRAW HT/FT - $5.00 = LOST (DRAW-TOTTENHAM)
DRAW 0-0 = $7.50 = LOST (0-1)

NORWICH – PORTSMOUTH
NORWICH - $2.25 = LOST (DRAW)

CAGLIARI - BRESCIA
DRAW - $3.00 = LOST (CAGLIARI)

MESSINA - SIENA
MESSINA - $1.80 - WON 4-1

PALERMO - BOLOGNA
PALERMO - $1.80 - WON 1-0

UDINESE - JUVENTUS
JUVENTUS - $1.80 - WON 1-0

PARMA - FIORENTINA
PARMA - $2.00 - LOST (DRAW)

CHELSEA - $1.70 - WON
CHELSEA 1-0 - $6.00 - WON
UNDER 2.5 GOALS - $1.75 - WON

SUNDAY TREBLE
NEWCASTLE-MANUTD-CHELSEA - $4.75 - LOST
DRAW-MANUTD-CHELSEA - $5.75 - LOST

Spanish LA LIGA
REAL MADRID - DEPORTIVO LA CORUNA
REAL MADRID - $1.53 - LOST! (0-1 DEPORTIVO)

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: knowledge on 2004-10-04 17:58 ]</font>

[goldmember]

Thanks knowledge for the little summarys and tips, although i didnt bet last night i'll keep an eye on them and suss out any good bets that i like,keep em coming son.
Moeee, i call AFL -aussie rules, NRL - league, super 12's - union,but i only called football - soccer when i was playing it as a kid[didnt know any better],but know days i call it football,cause it is the only REAL game of football, the others are handball with some use of the feet.

cheers

[moeee]

Makes sense to me.
Just the way it's done in Victoria and possibly all southern states.

[knowledge]

I know 8/19 tips is poor, but I'm only getting started. There was definitely some great value there. I'll review the matches now.

SOUTHAMPTON - MANCHESTER CITY
This was a boring match and it ended a scoreless draw. My prediction of Manchester City winning was wrong.

BLACKBURN - ASTON VILLA
This one had draw written all over it. 2-2 was the final score. $3.20 was definitely good value.

EVERTON - TOTTENHAM
Well this match definitely should have ended a draw and Everton were very unlucky not have made it 1-1. On another day it probably would have ended a draw but this time it finished 0-1 to Tottenham. The HT/FT DRAW-DRAW prediction was only good at half time, at $5.00 it was definitely value but unfortunately wasn't pulled off. The DRAW 0-0 prediction was, again, close to being pulled off but at $7.50 it's always too good to be true. The one prediction I did get correct was UNDER 2.5 GOALS, at $1.72 was decent value.

NORWICH – PORTSMOUTH
Norwich have entered by banned list after this performance, I thought they could finally pull off a victory but they were lucky to even get a draw.

CAGLIARI - BRESCIA
I underestimated Cagliari and overestimated Brescia. I thought after Brescia's previous victory over Udinese they could pull off a draw against a decent Cagliari outfit but Zola proved me wrong.

MESSINA - SIENA
Messina proved that they aren't flukes by defeating Siena 4-1. I expect the Sicilian team to be at much shorter odds next time. $1.80 was excellent value.

PALERMO - BOLOGNA
The Sicilian capital did well to beat Bologna. $1.80 was valuable for the 1-0 win.

UDINESE - JUVENTUS
Juventus achieved another 1-0 victory. $1.80 was good value, once again, for the black and white outfit.

PARMA - FIORENTINA
Parma have made it to my banned list, I'm no longer betting on them as they are far too unpredictable. Another 0-0 scoreline.

CHELSEA - LIVERPOOL
This was definitely the best match to bet on. Chelsea are becoming more and more predictable each week with their trademark 1-0 scorelines. $1.70 was great value for the win, but the CHELSEA 1-0 scoreline was amazing value at $6.00. UNDER 2.5 GOALS was also a great bet at $1.75.

SUNDAY TREBLES
Well I thought I had ruled out every possibility when I selected NEWCASTLE-MANUTD-CHELSEA and DRAW-MANUTD-CHELSEA. But it turned out the team at the shortest price ($1.30) was the weak link in the chain! At $4.75 (NEWCASTLE-MANUTD-CHELSEA) and $5.75 (DRAW-MANUTD-CHELSEA) value was guaranteed but Man. Utd. proved they won't be able to achieve anything the way they're going.

REAL MADRID - DEPORTIVO LA CORUNA
Another disappointing display by Real Madrid proved they aren't worth betting on in future. An over-rated team such as them has proven to be far too unpredictable.

Well, thanks for reading my predictions and I'll post some more next week and hopefully I'll win most of them, granted a bit more luck than this week.

One final tip for tonight though...
CRYSTAL PALACE - FULHAM
DRAW - $3.20
FULHAM - $2.40
By betting the same amounts on both of these results you are guaranteed profit!
Good luck.

[morrissey]

simple formula that doesnt always win but gets regualr smaller profits is this

always lay under 2.5 goals in premier league games or back if you prfer the prices that way, or get on laying 0-0... rpoblem with that is of course if you get one or two bad results in a week.. all profits are hit...:smile:

good luck gents.

and the bet of the premier season up to yet comes in two and half weeks...

Lay lay lay arsenil when they play man united, in three comp games last year arsenal scored just 2 goals. defended for their lives. I HONESLTY think that arsenal are scared of united like no other team, they afford united too much respect. And im a united fan. We will not lose to them, they are the most overrated side on the planet other than real madrid.

[goldmember]

I think Man United are VERY overated

[knowledge]

morrisey: I have to disagree. Man Utd. failed to beat Middlesbrough at home, to me this is an indication that they cannot beat Arsenal.

I do remember last season when Man Utd. should have won, with Ruud's penalty miss towards the end (with the score 1-1).

I was thinking of laying Arsenal when they play Man Utd. but instead I'm just going to sit back and enjoy.

About your system, I think it can be improved. This may sound stupid but... just bet on all the matches broadcasted by Foxtel to have under 2.5 goals. For some reason they are always boring. e.g. this week.
Southampton - Man City (0-0)
Everton - Tottenham (0-1)
Chelsea - Liverpool (1-0)
Crystal Palace - Fulham (2-0)

I may test it next time, but obviously if a team like Arsenal is playing I won't bet on under 2.5 goals.

Another risky system could be to back all the matches to be draws, with the exception of Arsenal (or any other games that are locks). This week there were 5 draws, so hyperthetically if you bet on 8 matches to be draws (Arsenal and Chelsea exceptions) at prices of $3.20..

$5 x 8 = $40.
$5 x $3.20 = $16
$16 x 5 = $80
That's practically odds of 1/1. It's something to think about.

Also.. I hope nobody took notice of my tip of Crystal Palace vs. Fulham, I got it completely wrong.

Thanks.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: knowledge on 2004-10-06 15:29 ]</font>

[morrissey]

to be honest, my view was a tad general, but overall i think in the last two seasons totals show about 3.2 goals a game in the epl... there is more goals however in the spanish league and italian league in the comparitive ratios... ppl alwaystend tothink there is less in the scudetto..

But man united over rated? i dont think so, they have had one bad season in the past eleven, last year. I know yo boys on here know yr pnions about a lot of sports, but at the start of the season uniteds injury list was as follows... Keane, van nistelrooy, ronaldo, saha, ferdinand (ok but he wasnt playing) neville, brown (again) scholes, kleberson.. hinze (back now)... the equivalent here is the Bulldogs missing El masri, o mealey, mason, tonga and sonny bill williams at least... united will win the champs league tghis year. and they WILL NOT lose to arsenal... One result a draw against middlesboro is not that bad, one defeat all season agaisnt chelsea isnt that bad... we shall see..

[knowledge]

I have a tip for today.

Irish League
Shamrock vs. Derry City
DERRY CITY - $3.40

This looks a sound bet, though I can't take credit for it. Go to this site for more info.

http://p076.ezboard.com/fpuntersloungefrm8.showMessage?topicID=5112.topic

[moeee]

Dunno nuffin' 'bout Football,But I do know that on what you put down here,Knowledge,Is you made a substantial profit.
And Congratulations to you.
My frame of mind at the moment is that I find the sport quite boring,but then again,without a bet involved most greyhound and horse races look pretty much the same to me.
See.Sometimes I say nice things too.
SHAKE HANDS?

[knowledge]

Sure man, I'm happy to make peace with you. I respect your efforts and I wish you all the best. I hope we can get along and set our differences aside.

Good luck to you.