Jack's TAB No 1 system

[jacfin]

Rules ..
Eliminate Sat Metro meetings
Consider TAB No 1.
To be a selection it must be listed to carry at least 4 kg above the limit weight in the race.
It also must be listed to carry between 0.5 kg and 2.5 kg more than TAB No 2. ( If No 2 is scratched use No 3 ).
I was amazed when I checked the 4th and 5th of October. There were 20 selns for 6 winners and 16 placegetters for a LS profit of 14 and 12 units resp. I'm sure that this is an abnormally good result but would appreciate someone running it thru their database.
For those of you that don't know the listed weight is the weight next to the horses name disregarding allowances and the limit weight is the weight next to the lightest weighted runner ( or runners ) in a race, also disregarding allowances.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: jacfin on 2004-10-05 21:23 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: jacfin on 2004-10-12 11:58 ]</font>

[peakester]

Jacfin,

Congrats on your selections today - Bathurst Towering Success, Townsville Spy's Eclipse & Vitegic - all winners
Would your system also include Bathurst Race3 No 2 (1 a late scratching) - $16.20 win $4.40 place as it met weight rules?

Cheers!

[jacfin]

Peakester
It would fit within the intent of the rules and I would consider it a selection.
I didn't notice it when I was checking the results but, as I wasn't actually betting on the selections, it did me no harm.
I would have shed a silent tear if I had been betting and missed it.

[kiwi]

G'day Jacfin,

The No1 system can lead to quite a few horses weighted 57.5 kg and above.

They have to be very good to win with that sort of impost.

I suggest where the horse is 57.5 kg and above the selection becomes the No2 horse.

[darkydog2002]

Here,s a few weight stats for anyones interest (courtesy of Malcolm Knowles research)

56.5 KG - 57.5 = 10.2 % of runs = 15.5 % of wins.

58 - 59 2.7 % of runs = 4.8 % of wins

59.5 - 60.5 0.4 % of runs =0.7 % of wins

Cheers.
darky.

[thoroughbred]

Here,s a few weight stats for anyones interest (courtesy of Malcolm Knowles research)
56.5 KG - 57.5 = 10.2 % of runs = 15.5 % of wins.
58 - 59 2.7 % of runs = 4.8 % of wins
59.5 - 60.5 0.4 % of runs =0.7 % of wins


When you look at these figures rationally
you find :-

56.5 KG - 57.5 RF of 1.52
58+ RF of 1.77

Hence >= 58kgs is the better chance.

[darkydog2002]

THOROUGBRED.Yep.The moral of the story for me at least is to concentrate on those horses with the greater chance of winning.
Those at 55 kg up.
Cheers.
Darky.

[thoroughbred]

On 2004-10-11 12:31, darkydog2002 wrote:
The moral of the story for me at least is to concentrate on those horses with the greater chance of winning.
Those at 55 kg up.


Dear Mr Dog,

While I was lying here counting my shekels this warm pm I had a look at Weight Carried in HANDICAP races (NOT WFA or SW or JUMPS) ....

55 - 55.5 WIN RF 0.85
56...............1.05
57...............1.20
58...............1.31
59...............1.39
60+..............1.15

the sample was 452,303 runs in 71,845 races.

Less than 56.0 (carried) is statistically not good and >60 we start to reduce our effectiveness.

[sportznut]

Excuse my ignorance, but what does the RF stand for?

[thoroughbred]

On 2004-10-11 17:11, sportznut wrote:
Excuse my ignorance, but what does the RF stand for?


Relative Frequency

[darkydog2002]

THOROUGHBRED.Thanks for that.
Good to see we are both on track here.
Puts paid to the fallacy of betting on lower weighted horses doesn,t it.?
Cheers.
darky.

[darkydog2002]

Mind you I did put one of my favorite spot play systems through the data base with the only change being that the weight had to be 55kg and BELOW and for PLACE only.
A 3 year test I thought should give me some indication of any validity.
Whilst the strike rate place is nothing spectacular 53.33 %,the average dividend was $2.69 (highest being $5.50)
The profit on turnover was 43.67.%.
Not too poor I thought for a place plan.
Cheers.
darky.

[Dalray]

Jacfin,

Try this with your 20 selns. The horse also to have the greatest WT. Increase ( from last start to present start). This could eliminate some losing selns. I would be very interested to know how this goes. A point to notice , high WT. horses do best at short distances and small fields.

Ray

[jacfin]

Thanks for the input guys.
With regard to the weight the country limit is 53.0 most of the time now so it is rare to get a selection below 57.0 kg.
My preference is to ignore short priced selns so I have been keeping my eye on the following for the last 8 days.
Original rules plus ....
Ignore ALL metro meetings.
Eliminate meetings in NZ NT WA. ( just a personal preference of mine. I don't know if they are better or worse).
Eliminate any selection below $5.50 on Qld tote.
The results are ..
28 selns 5 winners LS return 48 units.
Profit 20 units.

[jacfin]

Update - original rules plus minor amendments posted 12/10/04.
4-10-04 to 17-10-04
49 selns
10 winners
Win return - 94 units
Profit on LS - 45 units.
A couple of minor amendments to rules for the future ...
If selection is first up after a spell and today's race dist is > 1200m eliminate the race.
If selection is having first lifetime start eliminate the race.