Let's design the definitive system

[moeee]

First we need to know our goals and then to overcome the barriers preventing those goals.
I suggest the goal is to make punting profitable.
And in being profitable is fine,but I further suggest it be profittable to the degree that it supports one financially to the extent that a person is comfortable with.
Once a winning system is available,the actual amount won is dependant on the size of the units invested.
In my case $150 a week should get me by in the manner to which I am accustommed.
The profit margin which is acceptable will be 15%.
So in my case an investment of $1000 per week is in order.
To allow for the probable once in a lifetime occurrence of 20 straight losers,a bank of $20 grand is needed.
Lets be daring and start with a hyperthetical bank of $10,000.

So there we go there is the goal set out,now we just need some input of how or how not to achieve this goal.



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Moderator 3 on 2004-10-06 17:42 ]</font>

[Dr Pangloss]

My lips are sealed.

Planning to win - this sounds oh so easy.

[moeee]

So what is or are the obstacles apart from the confounding trait of human character.
It's that 17% take out by betting agencies.
So how do we get around that.
If we put a dollar on every selection we lose 17%
If we put more on those with the greater chance and less on those with the least chance,surely we can improve on the current loss of 17%
And because a contestant is being offered at even money,don't mean it necessarily has a better chance of winning than a 10 to 1 shot.
How many times have pacers gallopped off the mark?.And at very short prices.If you knew it was gonna break at the start,do you think you would have taken the even money?
With the shorty out of the race the second and third favourite are now the evens chances.
That is the goal,or at least should be,of every punter.To assess the true price of each competitor in an event.
And the way to do that is by a bonus and penalty system.
How that's put together is possibly a conglomeration of ideas,but anyone else out there prepared to be laughed at instead of doing the laughing?

[Dr Pangloss]

Enough of this lecturing - give me the definitive system.

BTW all this betting to prices nonsense has long gone the way of the dinosaur.

And I will post a system before this thread expires. Promise.

[AssumeTheCrown]

Dont quit your day job mate. Need you to keep donating your wages to keep the winning dividends higher.

[kenchar]

Dr,
If you promise to post the system I PROMISE to give it to all your mates at the Granville TAB. :lol:

Moeee,
I appreciate what you are trying to convey here,but what you are proposing has been tried time infinate and that is why the majority lose.
To succeed you HAVE to look outside the circle.
I wish I could convey here what goes through my head when I look at a race, but it is impossible.
All I can say to succeed you HAVE to look at just about every race, and decide if there is a bet in that race, by that I mean live as it it is happening NOT do the form put all your bets on in the morning and hope in the evening you have a profit.
Often I will let 8 or 10 races go before I have a bet.
Look at some of my other posts in relation to what I do.
One small tip look at the 3rd and 4th favourites to run a place.

Cheers

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: kenchar on 2004-10-06 20:08 ]</font>

[moeee]

Must be a lot of losers out there to be so bitter towards my ideas.
Kenchar,I shall look at what you suggested as an aid to finding out the relevant areas that concern why and why not a selection can win.
And my favourite animals are dinosaurs.
So forget the system then.
I'll keep trying on my own.

[Shaun]

there is only one real winning system out there and that is the percentage system....those that use it will agree....those that don't...just don't understand it

[beton]

I'll bite what's the percentage system
Regards Beton

[Shaun]

I won't go in to specifics but it is making your own book on a race so that you can't lose

[good 4th]

For the dogs, I look for at;

Prize money..
Winning lengths..
Winning time..
Average time..
Weight..in kilos
Up/Down in distance..
Last start..

Im still not able to incorprate running styles, and early,late speed.(Any help would be great)

I still have mixed results, nothing to retire on yet,lots of fav's.
The thing is all a bit like the lottery (luck) even the short priced gets knocked down.
Mid priced Dogs is the intended market to bet for me but as usual the runouts are to long to sustain any long term betting.
I only use the Form guide(internet,paper) to obtain information.

Off to work
Never give up
GD4TH

[moeee]

Shaun seems to be well respected on this forum.
And if there is a percentage system and it is available for free or at a cost,where and how can it be obtained?
It's not the same thing as Arbitrage betting is it?
Or could I perhaps know it by another name?

[puntz]

"Let's design the definitive system"

Can't be done cos of the, "let's" factor.

Ya wanna open-scource code it ?
maybe...but I doupt it.