knowledge's Winning Betting Streak

[knowledge]

My aim here is to make winning bets in an attempt to avoid losing at all. I know it sounds far-fetched but I will try and do it. I've decided this because I tend not to be selective enough when I bet. I will start off with an aim for 5 winning bets in a row, then 10, then 20 and so fourth.

I will post any bets that I plan to add onto streak.

Thank you.

[knowledge]

<font color="blue"><font face="courier new">
Marat Safin ($1.28) to beat Max Mirnyi ($3.30)

<font color="green">WON (6-7, 7-6, 7-6)<font color="#CCDCCC">



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: knowledge on 2004-10-12 00:30 ]</font>

[thefan]

My streaks usually run in terms of week. One week I havea lucky streak,whilst another week, I make a weekly lost.

Brazil vs Colombia - Result BRAZIL $1.25
Lithuania vs Spain - Result SPAIN $1.28
Azerbaijan vs England - Result ENG $1.11
Mutis v Mahut-Rd1 Hd To Hd MAHUT $1.47
India v Australia - Result INDIA $4.40

[knowledge]

<font color="blue"><font face="courier new">
Mikhail YOUZHNY ($1.35) to beat Marc ROSSET ($3.00).

<font color="green">WON (4-6, 6-3, 6-2)<font color="#CCDCCC">

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: knowledge on 2004-10-12 20:46 ]</font>

[knowledge]

<font color="blue"><font face="courier new">
World Cup Qualifying
Brazil ($1.25) to beat Colombia ($10.00).

Ukraine ($1.33) to beat Georgia ($8.50).
<font color=green> WON<font color=blue>
Sweden ($1.65) to beat Iceland.
<font color=green> WON
<font color=blue>
NBL
Perth ($1.38) to beat Hunter ($2.80).
<font color=green>WON 85-72<font color=blue>

Sydney ($1.45) to beat Melbourne ($2.55).
<font color=green>WON 90-89<font color="#aBc6eA">

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: knowledge on 2004-10-14 05:58 ]</font>

[Mr J]

Good luck. Just interesting in how you select your bets? You putting thought into your selections or just going for short priced bets?

[knowledge]

The truth is, a bit of both. Mainly due to my selections though, when the European league football comes around this weekend there will be some longer prices up.

With WC qualifying the longest price I could find was Sweden at $1.65 to beat Iceland, the rest are $1.30 and below.

On the weekend there should be some good value though, so remember to check back. :smile:

[Mr J]

"I could find was Sweden at $1.65 to beat Iceland, the rest are $1.30 and below."

Yeh looking for rogue lines is a decent strategy. Just be sure the book won't later void the bet. If you're at an aussie book or solid offshore (caribbean) book you're fine, but watch yourself (esp at euro books).

[knowledge]

<font color="blue"><font face="courier new">World Cup Qualifying
Argentina ($1.50) to beat Chile.

<font color=red>LOST

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: knowledge on 2004-10-14 22:48 ]</font>

[moeee]

I don't know what's going on here Knowledge,but I do know if I could come up with that many winners,I wouldn't be asking too many questions.Be too busy counting my money!

[knowledge]

Ok, after 2 losses I start a new streak.

Previous streak: 6
Aim this streak: 10

<font color="blue"><font face="courier new">Football
Arsenal ($1.25) to beat Aston Villa.
<font color=green>WON<font color=blue>
HT/FT - Arsenal-Arsenal ($1.60).
<font color=green> WON<font color=blue>
Over 2.5 GOALS in Arsenal-Aston Villa ($1.70).
<font color=green>WON<font color=blue>
Bolton ($1.60) to beat Crystal Palace.
<font color=green>WON<font color=blue>
Liverpool ($2.00) to beat Fulham.
<font color=green>WON<font color=blue>
Chelsea ($1.70) to beat Manchester City.
<font color=red>LOST<font color=blue>
AS Roma ($1.80) to beat Livorno.
<font color=green>WON<font color=blue>
AC Milan ($1.60) to beat Cagliari.
<font color=green>WON<font color=blue>
Fiorentina ($1.70) to beat Siena.
<font color=red>LOST<font color=blue>
Inter ($1.40) to beat Udinese.
<font color=green>WON<font color=blue>
Deportivo La Coruna ($1.36) to beat Getafe.
<font color=green>WON<font color=blue>
Stuttgart ($1.72) to beat Borussia Dortmund.
<font color=green>WON<font color=blue>
Tennis
Tommy HAAS ($1.35) to beat Robby GINEPRI.
<font color=green>WON

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: knowledge on 2004-10-18 01:56 ]</font>

[thefan]

Under 205.5 Perth vs Townsville

[Mr J]

Nice to see they're not all $1.10 :wink:

You should keep track of how much your've won/lost.

[moeee]

With some sort of all-up betting style there are some big profits to be made on those prices.
Good Luck knowledge.

[Floydyboy]

i.e.
Birmingham v ManU- ManU To Win
Arsenal v Aston Villa -Arsenal To Win
Bburn Rovers v Mbrough- Msbrough To Win
Fulham v Liverpool- Lpool To Win
Man City v Chelsea Chelsea To Win
$22.25

Birmingham v ManU- ManU To Win
Blackburn Rovers v Mbrough -Mbrough To Win
Everton v Southton- Everton To Win
Fulham v Liverpool- Lpool To Win
Man City v Chelsea- Chelsea To Win
$30.25

[knowledge]

I have to say I think over 2.5 goals in Arsenal-Aston Villa is the best bet today. All of their home games have had 3 or more goals. Usually more than 3 in fact.

I think it's impossible for all those bets to win, there's always a weak link the chain. We'll see though.

[Floydyboy]

yeah thats the way it usually goes and sometimes yer that far off the mark it makes you laugh....I had 5 on one of em and 3 on the other but you never know sillier things have happened ....Middlesbrough for me straight out full stop ...cheers goodluck

[Floydyboy]

Well done Mr K had ya cash in ya pocket before half time, they were unkucky not to have few more in there as well .... they create so many chances..... Man u were a shambles they really need to adress some midfield issues.... getting very little quality ball up front ...the arse just scored again .....too easy .
Got a feeling chelsea might break loose tonight. I had 6 on em to score 3or more by half time @19 and 6 on em to score more than 4 or more all up @13 I cleaned up on Borough and jagged a Ars/LPool/Mbrough accumulator @7.20 had 3 losing ones as well all with ManU
So I can afford to be a bit irrational



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Floydyboy on 2004-10-17 02:21 ]</font>

[knowledge]

yep, Arsenal are simply unstoppable. It will be very interesting to see them face up against Chelsea. The best defence against the best attack, I will relish the chance to see that game.

[knowledge]

9/10 so far, need just one more win to make the 10.

Two more bets for the streak here then..

<font color=blue><font face="courier new">
Tennis - Vienna - Grand Final
Canas ($1.60) to beat Lopez.
<font color=red>LOST<font color=blue>
NBL
Kings to beat Bullets - $1.53
<font color=green>WON
<font color=black><font face="verdana">

I don't want this to count as a bet on the streak but it looks a good bet to make.

LECCE-PALERMO - DRAW at $3.00 (lost)
Enjoy. :grin:

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: knowledge on 2004-10-18 01:55 ]</font>

[Floydyboy]

Im gunna have a lazy tenner just for an interest on Levante to beat Numancia(Draw no bet)@$2.16

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Floydyboy on 2004-10-17 23:04 ]</font>

[sportznut]

I must admit that I've never even heard of half the teams you mention Floydyboy. I thought Levante was the name of a racehorse.

[knowledge]

they are Spanish La Liga teams that have been promoted from Segunda Liga (Numancia and Levante)

[sportznut]

Well, it was certainly a good bet because they won 3-1.

[Mr J]

Doing pretty well so far.

Keep a record of all your bets, and not just how long the streak is.

So far your've had alot more wins than losses, and probally enough to actually be in front (which is what is important). Keep it up.

[Floydyboy]

Well I only had one decent bet on the weekend on middlesbrough but the little fish did alright as well ....I mentioned before in another post (it probably sounded like an add) but Ill tell you again that the site for me is Betexplorer.... have a look ...if you want to bet on soccer its a goodn

[knowledge]

ok, well so far I'm 18 winning bets out of 23. I'll start a new streak today and hopefully it will last longer than this one.

[knowledge]

<font color=maroon><font face="courier new"><font size=2>English Premier League
Under 2.5 Goals in Portsmouth-Tottenham ($1.65).

NFL
TAMPA BAY +6.5Pts - $1.85.</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: knowledge on 2004-10-18 19:11 ]</font>

[Floydyboy]

Hahaha I cant bloody help myself
3 bets 10 each (all, draw no bet)
EPL
Spurs @1.86
SWEEDEN
Hammarby @1.94
Hellsinborg @2.68



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Floydyboy on 2004-10-18 19:43 ]</font>

[Floydyboy]

Well who would have thunk it Spurs never looked likely to win outchallenged and a lot of unchallenged ball going to the opposition a bit like Man u the other night
ah well last nights profits returned to the devil ...well done with over under mr k....still cant see my way clear to play that way though

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Floydyboy on 2004-10-19 07:06 ]</font>

[knowledge]

yeh this is the second Monday in a row where the two results - Tottenham and Draw - I thought were most likely lost. Last week it was Draw/Fulham and Crystal Plce. won.

anyway, Tampa bay lost by 7pts. Quite painful to lose a bet by 0.5 of a point. Luckily I didn't bet on it. Looked a good bet though and it was really unfortunate not to win.

I think I'll keep backing Arsenal's games to have over 2.5 goals *except against Man U* and under 2.5 goals for Tottenham's games. Both look good bets, only one of Arsenal's games hasn't had more than 2 goals and all of Tottenham's games have had under 3.

[knowledge]

<font color=maroon><font face="courier new"><font size=2>Tennis - Madrid
Haas ($1.45) to beat Malisse.
<font color=green>WON
Canas ($1.30) to beat Vliegen.
<font color=green>WON


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: knowledge on 2004-10-20 20:51 ]</font>

[Northerly]

Hi Knowledge,

Sorry to say this but I backed St Louis at -6.5pts so not so painful for me. Also backed Portsmouth/Tottenham under 2.5 goals (as mentioned by you last night) plus NY Yankees/Boston under 9.5 runs (had to endure 14 innings to get the result).

Did have one loser and that was the DRAW in the Port/Tott match. Spurs had a couple of chances in the dying minutes to grab the draw. Oh well, can't win them all.

But overall a good night.

[knowledge]

<font color=maroon><font face="courier new"><font size=2>English Football Championship
Wolverhampton ($1.90) to beat Derby.
<font color=green>WON<font color=maroon>
UEFA Champions League
Juventus to DRAW ($3.15) against Bayern Munich.
<font color=red>LOST (read post below)<font color=maroon>
Monaco ($1.55) to beat Olympiakos.
<font color=green>WON

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: knowledge on 2004-10-20 20:13 ]</font>

[Northerly]

did you not tip Juve to win on the "Champions League" thread?

[knowledge]

OK, you got me.. I had a change of mind. I know the result will end either draw or Juventus win. I will further explain after the match when I feel more comfortable speaking about it.

[knowledge]

ok now I will explain.

I realistically and honestly thought Juve would win. I backed them as well. I was feeling unsure about the match though so I superstitiously said it would be a draw to jinx one result. I knew Bayern wouldn't win so I thought if I said it'd be a draw here, and Juve won, at least I'd be happy with the money won. If it was a draw at least I'd be correct here. It's stupid but who cares.

I may post some tips later.

[Floydyboy]

did those tennis tips back up the page win

[knowledge]

oh yeh. They won.

[Floydyboy]

Well done ...I like the majors but i cant get interested in the weekly circuit ....are you a tennis devotee or do you use the tennis sites for info(or both) if ya dont mind me askin ....its just a curiosity

[knowledge]

just use tennis sites. :razz:

I only bet on tennis when I can't find anything else to bet on. :grin:

It's not too hard to find winners though, usually menstennisforums.com knows what's going to happen.

On betfair a guy named Timster gives tips, I only read them (I don't have betfair account) and they usually win too. Read the guy's posts though, he's an asshole.

[Floydyboy]

Yeah they can get pretty rank in the b.f forums Ive got an account ....But ill tell ya this for free they know theyre football ,,,If you want to know anything about soccer thats the place to bung ya nose in and ask(yeah well you do need an account) you might get some smart arse answers but as long as your not asking a stupid question you can usually find out what you want to know

[Northerly]

Crazy logic for the reason for picking the draw (but if it works stick to it). Lucky I stuck with yours and Floydy first selections.
Thanks
I don't follow the Champions League, and I didn't have anything else I liked last night so Juve it was.
I usually bet on NFL, MLB & EPL.

About your superstition, I have a friend who throws his tickets on the ground or the bin before the race finishes and then goes and picks it up if it wins. LAst years Melb Cup, he put his trifectas on the day before and threw the 3 tickets for his complicated tri in the bin at home. He got it, and was at the pub when he saw that it paid $11K for his half unit bet flew home and dumped the bin over the driveway to get the tickets back. The ladies at the TAB weren't impressed with the bent tickets.


so stick to your phantom tips if it helps, but will make it hard to know when your serious about your tips.

[knowledge]

yeah, I agree. But at the end of the day, doing superstitious things won't impact the result of an event, people just sometimes like to think it will sometimes for whatever reasons. It's a bit crazy. From now on I won't do things like that.

Well betting for me is closed :smile: So here they are...

<font color="maroon"><font face="courier new"><font size=2>UEFA Champions League
DRAW between AC Milan and Barcelona at $3.10.

DRAW between Anderlecht and Werder Bremen at $3.25.

CHELSEA to beat CSKA Moscow at $1.25.

ARSENAL to beat Panathinaikos at $1.67.

SHAKHTAR DONETSK to beat Celtic at $2.00.

ATHLETIC BILBAO to beat Parma at $1.80.

AUXERRE to beat GAK at $1.50.

SHALKE to beat BASLE at $1.60.

enjoy. I hope it isn't too late.

[Floydyboy]

The tips I put up here I always back but like yesterday and today Ive only had piddling amounts on them 6 or 10 dollars just for something to watch when i get up and i like watching the livescores come in .....on the weekend ill be having a bit of a go though but probably only one decent bet on the arse

[Floydyboy]

I was reading the B/F forum the other week before they played Rosenborg and the general consensus seemed to be that when Arsenal travel to europe LAY EM ALL DAY ....well its rang true for a couple of matches

[Floydyboy]

At first glance I like Benfica and Shalke tonite...prices are a bit skinny though


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Floydyboy on 2004-10-21 15:48 ]</font>

[knowledge]

<font color=maroon><font size=2><font face="courier new">Tennis
Taylor DENT ($2.70) to beat Tommy HAAS.

[faroutfantasies]

so why DENT knowlodge

[thefan]

probally timsters tips. Gotta admit good tipper.

My tip of the week : Arsenal to beat M.U @ $2.45

[faroutfantasies]

WHERE DO I FIND TIMSTERS TIPS

[thefan]

http://www.betfair.com in forum

[knowledge]

it was my tip.

[Floydyboy]

Well done 2.7 not a bad div
By the way I asked the about team selections and injuries in b/f and got this reply(s)(edited)
Injuries - physioroom dotcom isn't bad. BBC is hopeless and sportinglife have been getting it badley wrong recently. None of them are perfect - the physioroom reckoned Hass and a load of others would play against United.

Teams - check sportinglife dotcom between half an hour and 30 seconds before kick-off. Teams are not published until then.

The probable squads are widely published everywhere well before, but should be treated with a pinch of salt. Wenger, Ferguson and a whole host of others have been known to spring surprises.
nuf dotcom is independant site for newcastle and is quite good . hope its some help


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Floydyboy on 2004-10-21 23:59 ]</font>

[knowledge]

good research, Floydyboy, it could come useful within the next few days. thanks.

All I know is Man U won't win. $100 on Arsenal at $2.55 and $100 on the draw at $3.20 looks a good way to bet for me. Either way guaranteed a minimum profit of $55, maximum of $120... the more I think about it the more I like it.

Stuttgart is the bet tonight.

[Floydyboy]

OK Ill go along with that but just to get the price up a bit Ive taken em HT/FT @2.50 ha whats life if ya cant take risks

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Floydyboy on 2004-10-22 00:27 ]</font>

[faroutfantasies]

hey KNOWLEDGE THANK FOR THE TIP I GOT 2.85 FOR DENT

[knowledge]

actually ath. bilbao ht/ft also looks very inviting at $2.50. Parma were winning 1-0 against Brescia on the weekend but were losing 2-1 at half time and eventually lost 3-1.

I wanted to bet on the ht/ft option for A. Bilbao but the TAB had closed.

[Floydyboy]

I think ive had enough for one night see the other thread(faroutfantasies) Im off to bed so i can get up early and watch some soccer and some livescores and do some cursing into my coffe

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Floydyboy on 2004-10-22 00:53 ]</font>

[Floydyboy]

Not a bad night ....when you get a chance if you feelso inclined tellus what you think about serie A this weekend Im having a look at the form and apart from some stats I know nothing about em but well see how we go
Gee I hope the arse dont let me down this weekend ....Ill watch the epl weekend preview tonight then ill jot down some of my selections for the epl im not going silly this weekend just one solid bet and a few accumulators and maybe a few smaller bets

[Floydyboy]

Atalanta v Cagliari

Siena v Juventus

AC Milan v Inter

Chievo v Reggina

Livorno v Bologna

Messina v Lecce

Parma v Lazio

Roma v Palermo

Sampdoria v Brescia

Udinese v Fiorentina



Ill have a go and tell ya what i think
Bologna ..Should win..... nice odds

Lazio ... I know youve warned me off both these teams ..but maybe Lazio the better of two

Inter....I dont think they are without a chance however you can get better than 2.50 AC at home ...what do ya reckon.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Floydyboy on 2004-10-22 13:29 ]</font>

[knowledge]

Atlanta - Cagliari
DRAW

Siena - Juventus
JUVENTUS - good odds

Chievo Verona - Reggina
Chievo!

Livorno - Bologna
Bologna

Messina - Lecce
DRAW

Parma - Lazio
has DRAW written all over it

Roma - Palermo
staying away from it

Sampdoria - Brescia
staying away from it

Udinese - Fiorentina
...staying away from it

AC Milan - Inter
AC Milan

[knowledge]

Ai SUGIYAMI ($3.80) to beat Elena DEMENTIEVA.

LOST - but it was close.
Elena won 6-1, 5-7, 7-5

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: knowledge on 2004-10-23 00:19 ]</font>

[knowledge]

WILLIAMS ($1.72) to beat SHARAPOVA.
LOST
SAUREZ ($2.30) to beat SCHNYDER.
LOST
MOLIK ($2.05) to beat PETROVA.
WON
LJUBICIC ($2.15) to beat JOHANSSON.
WON

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: knowledge on 2004-10-23 10:56 ]</font>

[Floydyboy]

are they timsters tips

[knowledge]

no, why do people think that?

They are my tips and most lost anyway.

[Floydyboy]

Sorry champ haha I was just curious how the timpsters goin thats all

[knowledge]

Sharapova to beat Dementieva at $1.40.

[Floydyboy]

I had another sqiz at the gooners guide stuck my nose in the forum they seem to know whats what and whats not and unlike B/f they dont get those threads where people are just slaggin each other off I think i might sign up if its free.......god i love the internet

[knowledge]

yeh I've found that site to be very useful when making selections.

so here I am, another saturday and i face the same old dilemmas, what to bet on, how to bet, etc....

do you want to share your bets with me and I'll share mine with you? We could help each other.

[Floydyboy]

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Floydyboy on 2004-10-24 14:26 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Floydyboy on 2004-10-24 14:28 ]</font>

[knowledge]

thanks, Floydyboy. that's a lot of bets.
Here are mine...

Tottenham-Bolton - Under 2.5 goals
Norwich-Everton - Under 2.5 goals
Liverpool to win
Sharapova to win (1.40 is a gift)
Nalbandian to win
Middlesbrough to win
Chelsea to win
AC Milan to win (small bet)
Stuttgart to win
Schalke to win
W. Bremen to win
DRAW/DRAW - Norwich-Everton
DRAW/EVERTON - Norwich-Everton

adios


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: knowledge on 2004-10-23 16:16 ]</font>

[faroutfantasies]

hi knowledge and floydyboy can i join u 2 in helping each with tips

[knowledge]

yes.

:smile:

[Floydyboy]

I just picked up 60 at the races
so if the The Arse dosent let me down I might come out of the other end of the weekend ok

[faroutfantasies]

my tips

everton
chelsea 1.30
liverpool 1.42
m/united
juventus 1.65
chievo 1.72
bologna
sampdoria
schalke
stuttgart

ok i took sum multi bets
gwent 1.25 rugby union
bath 1.15 ru
leicester 1.01 ru
LEINSTER 1.12 RU
BLUE BULLS 1.30 RU
STADE FRANCAIS 1.35 RU
MUNSTER 1.05 RU
WASPS 1.52 RU
CHELSEA 1.30 SCO
LIVERPOOL 1.42 SCO 2@8.40 =16.80

JUVENTUS 1.65 SCO
CHIEVO 1.72 SCO
BOLOGNA 2.60 SCO 2@7.37=14.74

NORWICH UNDER 2.5 GOALS
TOTTENHAM UNDER 2.5 GOALS
SOUTHAMPTN UNDER 2.50 GOALS 4@4.33=17.32

CHELSEA
LIVERPOOL
JUVENTUS 2@3.04=6.08



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: faroutfantasies on 2004-10-23 16:40 ]</font>

[knowledge]

good for you man, I think Arsenal can get the job done, depending on whether they perform as Arsenal, the EPL team, or Arsenal, the European team....

I just found another bet, which I got from espnsoccernet.com. Here's a betting review on the site...

WEST HAM v Gillingham
They can't seem to win without Teddy Sheringham playing some part. Well, he is the class act in this division.
He is back again on Saturday and expect him - and West Ham (1.4 at Bet 365) subsequently - to be at least two divisions better than Gillingham (7.5 at Sportingbet) on Saturday who are labouring under false pretences at the moment.
They are not capable of sustaining themselves at this level anymore.
The draw is 4.0 at Bet 365.
VERDICT: Gills hammered

Good enough for me.

[Floydyboy]

I think Stuttgart are a good bet as well but Ive got to get through the weekend first

[faroutfantasies]

OK HERE GO NFL TIPS
RAMS
VIKINGS
GIANTS
BUCCS
EAGLES
COLTS
SEAHAWKS
BRONCOS

[Floydyboy]

Just found this Depends who right or wrong I suppose .........
west ham looked good to me but there without sheringham, etherington and davenport. Should win still because gills are poor but odds too low for my liking!

[faroutfantasies]

west brom 3.15 is a good bet

[knowledge]

what do you mean Sheringham is out?? He's returning today. :smile:

[Floydyboy]

that he may be but what I put there I got from gooners forum ...Just lettin you know what i found ....

[knowledge]

aah I see. I've just read it there.

but on espnsoccernet.com it said Teddy would play. oh well, either way they should win and if they don't.. :mad: I'm f***ed.

[Floydyboy]

Sorry Ill make it more distinctive time ..my blue Anyway I hope well be singing eachothers praises by monday morning otherwise well both be forked

[Floydyboy]

Yeah Farout I had a nibble at em (West Brom) but I took the (asian handicap 0) or (Draw no bet option) for 2.16 or thereabouts

[knowledge]

sounds like a safe bet on WB to me.

[knowledge]

Today...

Middlesbrough
Stuttgart
Southampton to DRAW
Messina

TENNIS - Sharapova-Safin

[Floydyboy]

MY BETS--The ones down the bottom are (below the line)are winners or losers the ones here are still alive
Arsenal (Draw no bet).......2.06*********
Arsenal (HT)..............3.55*
Arsenal/Arsenal(HT/FT)......5.40*
Man Utd/Arsenal(HT/FT)...34.00
Man Utd/Arsenal(OVER2.5).. 2.18*
Arsenal/Everton..........6.60*
Bologna...................3.15*
Lazio.....................3.25*
Juventus/Lazio............4.90
Inter/Lazio...............8.20
Zaragoz(Draw no bet)......2.00*
Barc/Real Mad.............2.52*
AND Ill be having an all up
Juv/Bol/Arse at current prices apr 15.00
*=$10 bet the rest are $6
---------------------------------------------
LPool/EVerton............3.95*won
Chelsea/Everton...........3.25*won
Chels/Ever/Lpool..........5.00*won
Bolton/Liverpool..........5.70 won
Juventus..................1.66**won
Juventus (over2.5)........2.40*won
DePortivo(Draw no bet)....2.06*SQUARE
RealM/Valenc (Over 2.5)...2.18*lost
WBromwich(Draw no bet)....2.18*lost
Liverpool (lay 100/16)....1.16 Lost(16)










<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Floydyboy on 2004-10-24 14:42 ]</font>

[faroutfantasies]

just took this multi

MIDDLESBROUGH 1.57
NEWCASTLE 1.68
SOUTHAMPTH -0.5 2.65
CHIEVO 1.72
SAMPDORIA 1.65
BARCELONA 1.37
M/UNITED 2.65

3@72.01=216.03 I WILL BE HAPPY IF I GET THIS UP TONIGHT

[knowledge]

CLEVELAND -7.5 against PHILADLEPHIA

[Northerly]

should that be +7.5??
I don't mind that bet but mine for the night is
Atlanta +3.5 v Kansas City

I'm having a bit of trouble giving my tips out before the game, as it has only brought me bad luck in the past. This is the 1st one I've posted here. Just felt like I should contribute, rather than just comment on others selections.

I also like Boston/St Louis -10.5 runs. The over 10.5 will be fav after todays 20 run game but with Curt Shilling on the mound (best big game pitcher in the MLB)I think this is a better bet.

I backed Boston in Game 1 at -1.5 runs @ $2.45, wasn't happy when Ramirez (can bat, can't field) committed 2 errors in row to level the scores in the 8th but Bellhorn's 2 run shot clinched the deal.

[Floydyboy]

Bellhorns beeen having a bit of a party post season.... will schillings ankle hold out ...I dont bet on MLB but I have been watching it

[Northerly]

Well I wasn't close with Atlanta in the NFL, a few upsets this morning. Good get with Cleveland Mr K.

But Boston came through for me, I backed them to win and under 10.5 runs.

Another 5 star performance from Shilling, didn't give up any earned runs, lucky Boston can hit because they can't field (8 errors in the first 2 games).

[knowledge]

NIEMINEN to beat GAMBILL at $1.55.

[Floydyboy]

you still goin mr k you're relentless

[Floydyboy]

I didnt watch the nfl but i happened to flick it on at one stage and thought to myself maybe he put the decimal point in the wrong spot .....it was 35- something at that point

[Northerly]

I know 56-10, hell even +35 wouldn't have got close.

from 13 games this morning, more favourites got beaten that won. Even my winless Dolphins won a game.

Oh well, At least I got 1 right and as my stake increases after a loss the wins on Boston more than made up for Atlanta's poor showing.

[knowledge]

when I said -7.5 for Cleveland I meant +7.5.

edit: Andrei Pavel to beat Calleri at $1.65.

I should really restart this winning streak as it's got out of hand. I stopped keeping track and now it's turned into a tipping thread more or less. should I start a new one?

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: knowledge on 2004-10-25 21:41 ]</font>

[Floydyboy]

Yep why not the papers free

[Mr J]

Sure. Just keep track of all your tips in excel or something. That way you have an idea how you are doing overall.

[Floydyboy]

My P/L for the last 3 months
Golf: +AUD11.65
Horse Racing: +AUD14.67
Rugby League: -AUD0.04
Soccer: -AUD19.96
Total P&L: +AUD6.32

[sportznut]

Well, it's taken 7 weeks, but that NFL Homedog system I mentioned a while back has finally had it's first selections for the season.

Arizona (+6.5) WON
Cleveland (+7.5) WON
Miami (+6.5) WON

One more for this round - Cincinatti (+6.5). Let's see how they go. I'm not a huge NFL fan, so at the moment I'm using this idea just for fun, but the record over the last 2 1/3 seasons stands at 26 wins from 31 bets, so who knows???

[Floydyboy]

SO how does the system go Sportz
Home team with the start when they get the start? Is that it

[sportznut]

Only when the start is 6.5 or 7.5 points.

[Floydyboy]

Too easy Sportz.... What price did you get for that.....Theyre declaring it a major upset ....obviously thyre not getting the right info hahahaha

[sportznut]

There was a bit of a plunge on Denver, and Cinicinatti (+6.5) got out to $2.10!!! :grin:

That makes 27 from 32. Could be onto something here, but it's very selective so you need a lot of patience. No bets for the first 6 rounds and now 4 from 4 in one week!


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-10-26 15:11 ]</font>

[Mr J]

Sportz what filters are you using? BTW, small and large home dogs have shown to be profitable longterm, middle sized home dogs have lost longterm.

You might wanna buy those +6.5s into +7.5 (providing it costs you 20 cents or less). Buying & selling to key numbers can be advantageous in the NFL.

BTW arizona and cleveland +7 were available. Shopping can make a pretty big difference in NFL.

[Mr J]

Ok, forget the Q about the conditions, home dogs lined at +6.5 or +7.5.

It might interest you to know that home dogs lined at:

+7.5 is 9-17
+7 is 32-37
+6.5 is 33-34

This is from years 1985 to 2000.
Results from 2000-2003:
+7.5 is 11-6
+7 is 12-5
+6.5 is 13-9

So the trend has turned around in recent years, although I wouldn't want to rely on that for my bets.

One trend I'd trust is backing home dogs lined at +8 and higher.
From 1985 to 1999 they are 86-60
From 2000-2003 are 18-9.

Dogs lined from EV to +3 have also performed very well historically.

[sportznut]

Perhaps I've just been lucky then. All I've done for the last 2 and a bit years is simply look at the lines on Tab Sportsbet and when the home team is given a start of 6.5 or 7.5, I back them. Like I said, I've only been doing it for a bit of an interest. I don't expect this strike rate to continue but I'm well ahead so far. :smile:

By the way, I've also been watching home dogs with starts longer than 7.5, but over the last couple of years I didn't think they'd done as well as your figures suggest.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-10-26 18:02 ]</font>

[Mr J]

Those figures are from the standard vegas/offshore line. TAB won't be nearly as efficient (slow to move lines etc).

Those results for the +6.5 and +7 don't include point buying (buy to +7.5).

I'll check out the TAB prices this week and see what they're like.

BTW, longer lined underdogs have done that well :wink:

[Mr J]

Well their closing lines were all within half a point of the standard offshore line. Looks like they were generally shading the favourites a little.

[sportznut]

Mr J,

After what you said, I thought I'd probably done way better than I could have expected out of this idea, so I decided to stop betting on them and just watch them for a while. Since that time 3 straight losers. Can you say again what you think would be the best way to go long term backing homedogs in the NFL? I don't want to back all of them, because I don't want a lot of bets. Do you suggest backing those given starts of 8 points and more??? Your figures show a 60% strike rate over 18 years.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-11-24 10:41 ]</font>