NBL Round 6

[Fernando]

Breakers(2.00) vs Razorbacks(1.75)

Here are the basic stats for every game these two teams have played. The 1st percentage given is Shot and the 2nd is 3 pointers. The one below is average.
<table border=1>
<tr><td>Breakers</td></tr>
<tr>
<td><pre>36ers
Kings
Hawks
36ers

</td>
<td><pre>-12
2
-19
-26

</td>
<td><pre>Home
Home
Home
Away

</td>
<td><pre>42.00%
40.00%
41.00%
32.00%
38.75%
</td>
<td><pre>36.00%
32.00%
39.00%
21.00%
32.00%
</td>
</tr>
</table>

<table border=1>
<tr>
<td>Razorbacks</td>
</tr>

<tr>
<td><pre>Wildcats
Bullets
Bullets
Tigers

</td>
<td><pre>-28
31
2
-8

</td>
<td><pre>Away
Home
Away
Home

</td>
<td><pre>42.00%
46.00%
53.00%
50.00%
47.75%
</td>
<td><pre>33.00%
31.00%
31.00%
42.00%
34.25%
</td>
</tr>
</table>



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Fernando on 2004-10-29 13:09 ]</font>

[Fernando]

There has been a bit of press over breakers players venting frustration toward the coach. I not sure if it will affect the performance.

The Razorbacks look likely to win this game anyway.

Any thoughts?

[knowledge]

Too late now for me to comment.

I like Kings and Tigers tonight. Tigers are likely to lose now though since Bettingzone.com.au predicted them to win. For some reason bettingzone gets everything wrong.

[knowledge]

Well Breakers won by 7 pts. It just adds to my belief that + handicaps are better bets. So many upsets in NBL.

Hopefully no more surprises tonight.

Bullets have only won against Hunter away and have suffered humiliating defeats to many teams. Including the Razorbacks, who won by 31 pts. Razorbacks recently lost at home to the Tigers. Freeman is out for the bullets and it is Mark Bradtke's 350th NBL game. An upset doesn't look to be on the cards for this one.

Kings will beat Cairns. Cairns are 0-12 in their past 12 away games. For some reason Kings' price has gone from $1.18 to $1.20.. why would the bookies bother? It's a shoe in either away.

[knowledge]

:mad:

f-ck.

nothing goes my way in this.

[Floydyboy]

wot appened mr K

[Beljulian]

Tigers lost is what happened.

[knowledge]

From now on I will...

bet on ALL + lines and do the OPPOSITE of whatever bettingzone advises.

what a terrible week.

[thefan]

I learnt something else as well. I should back Sports instead of grey hounds. I had a total of 1 win out of 10 races. Btw they were places not wins. what r your odds of just 3 from 8. Yesterday was a bad day for backing dogs

[Floydyboy]

youve had a barry crocker thats for sure ...take some consolation in the fact that the second half of the NRL and AFL were like that for me everthing i touched turned to catshit so I bailed and just had a few ten dollar bets around the semis ....And if your looking Moeee it was I who killed your beloved saints not the coach or their opponets but the weight of my piddling dollars

[knowledge]

my biggest problem is that I see a bet and think I can win it. Rather than sticking to the bets I know I can win, I get excited by the larger odds and think why not. Some more discipline and I'd be doing much better. I was going to back Kings outright at short odds but I thought maybe I could scrape through with the Tigers as well.

For the next 7 days I'm sticking to sure bets. Once I build up my funds I'll start taking a few more risks, but with small bets.

[Floydyboy]

I believe (and take this how you like because Im not tellin you how to do your business,)stick to what you know best its no good backing everything that moves ,I know bugger all about Basket ball so I dont bet on it .(and Im certainly not gunna take your tips ....sorry just kidding )I did a lump on arsenal(no regrets)last week but I could have covered it with my multis if id have stayed out of Europe and left the exotics alone .........so Ive pulled my head in .......anyway enough advice .....so step back have a beer or a smoke or a smoke or whatever relaxes ya then come out and kick some arse.
Its hard to resist with all the action available.It dosent worry me to have $1 bets just for an interest Just to prove if I can get it right or drop it on some long shots and watch em lead till the turn then fall on there arse hahaha.with betfair though its a minimum $6( it think its got to do with the exchange rate)so as was the case last week a heap of 6and10 dollar bets soon eats away at any fun you may be havin.. So I topped up my Spodds account this week and Ill be able to open my shoulders and have some cheap multis

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Floydyboy on 2004-10-29 23:24 ]</font>

[knowledge]

thanks Floydyboy that's good advice. I'll stick to what I know and see how I go.

by the way I noticed you registered with gooners forums. Hopefully they can be useful with their selections, they seem to know football well.

[Floydyboy]

Dont know if you noticed but ive added to the thread above
Yeah I joined up introduced myself waffled on bla bla bla .
Ive had my nose in their all week .Been a few losers over the last week but the info is invaluable they know every thing we want to know and they seem pleasant an helpful .And theyve got lowdown on whos playing whose not how it might affect the attack or defense etc Bloody Marvelous

[Fernando]

Well the Breakers didnt play any better at home . The Razorbacks just played even worse. What a turley piss poor performance from both teams, no one deserved to win that one. Here are the basic stats for the game.

Breakers 7 34% 29%
Razorbacks -7 36% 25%

They play again tonight. Its another home game for the breakers. The odds have moved only slightly from last night.
Breakers(1.90) vs Razorbacks(1.85)
The Razorbacks have shown the ability to reach a higher level then the breakers and have a good chance of winning. They could also play like last night and dig another hole.

"I'll stick to what I know and see how I go."

I want to know basketball so then i can stick to it.

[Floydyboy]

Are the odds always that short Fernando ......

[Fernando]

The intangibles in basketball are my big main concern (I guess thats the case with all sports betting)

Here are a few that im looking for answers:
a) The time gap inbetween games
b) Teams coming off wins , losses, and streaks
c) Home and away advantage
d) The altering shooting percentage

And its likely each team will react in a different way to each situation.
Im currently working my way through the last season to get an basic idea. I want to get some rules to highlight danger zones for teams.

[Fernando]

No Floyd, you can get some good odds.
The norm seems to be $1.50(home) $2.60(away) for in my opinion a rather even game.

Edit: Sometimes a even game

I have only seen a few 20c-5c gaps in H2H, they come when a strong away team plays a weaker home team.



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Fernando on 2004-10-30 08:40 ]</font>

[Floydyboy]

Ta Fernando
I read a thread the other week that said that the prices are slanted towards the home team and that there is some (here goes that word again) value to be exploited on the away team because of this .

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Floydyboy on 2004-10-30 09:07 ]</font>

[Jack Daniels]

Man I was happy to see the Breakers get up last night. Woo Hoo.... Keeps my lardy barge ass alive in my long shot multi's. :grin:

[Fernando]

Ive deleted my last post because the figure were off. I'll redo them.

Lets say you played every bet with the same amount and were targeting away wins with a $2.60 average.

strike rate(SR) of 38.5% to break even(well +0.10%)
SR 40% = 4% gain on bankroll
SR 43% = 11.8%
SR 47% = 22.2%
SR 50% = 30%
SR 55% = 43%
SR 60% = 56%

So you need to be around 40% at least to see any value, which i dont think is to crazy. And you dont need to go much higher to see some fantastic results.

[Fernando]

Both teams played well in there second double header. Here are the stats if anyone wants a follow up.

Breakers 9 52% 48%
Razorba +9 45% 42%

Also in the above post the percentage gain is on bankroll turnover.

[thebookie]

You have to be mad to bet the line in basketball and completely insane to take the -

Teams/Players couldn't care less if they win by 5 or 50 despite you sitting at home throwing things at the TV and screaming for them to shoot the 3 to cover the -10.5 line!

If you watch the NBL, coaches are always pulling their guns off the court when they're 20 up in the last quarter...just watch that lead get whittled away to 9 and you've done your ass...

[thefan]

I agree with ya bookie. Ive lost on many occassions by just 0.5

[thebookie]

Just wondering if any of you guys do any business on the NBL totals?

[thebookie]

And can anyone give me a logical reason why tonight's game isn't on TV?!?!?!

[Fernando]

I havnt touched them bookie. Thats not to say i never would just havnt looked into it enough.

[Beljulian]

On 2004-11-01 14:13, thebookie wrote:
And can anyone give me a logical reason why tonight's game isn't on TV?!?!?!


Fox are too lazy to come to Perth.